ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[im g]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/MaracaiboMax_zpsit2sr2lx.gif[/img]

Looks like we may finally be getting some hints of an outer eyewall beginning to develop on radar.

Looks like it has been going on for a few hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[NotoSans]

NHC went with 125 knots in the latest advisory, but I think they are being generous.

[mrbagyo]

[im g]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/MaracaiboMax_zpsit2sr2lx.gif[/img]

Looks like we may finally be getting some hints of an outer eyewall beginning to develop on radar.

Looks like it has been going on for a few hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

I agree, there has been a clear moat for several hours.

[JaxGator]

Though it's weakened some, Matthew remains a powerful Cat 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. He's also slowed down to 6 mph heading west per NHC. That's slower than the last advisory I believe.

[cycloneye]

Long paragrafh that discuss about the track once it reaches the Atlantic.

Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
on the right and the GFS well to the left. The evolution of the
western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
currently centered over the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF shows a weaker
ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward. Given
the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
previous official forecast. The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids. Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

[GCANE]

Looks like we may finally be getting some hints of an outer eyewall beginning to develop on radar.

Looks like it has been going on for a few hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

I agree, there has been a clear moat for several hours.

I think we are in the meat of an EWRC judging from some other microwaves and the drop in intensity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 8_ch16.gif

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010733.GIF

[chris_fit]

Bryan Norcross posted this about an hour ago...

Mega Hurricane Matthew Is Misbehaving
Matthew has turned into a monster. And we don’t know why. Before our eyes on it exploded into a Category 5 hurricane last night. This is even more stunning because there is no conventional wisdom, no models, no nothing that indicated that degree of strengthening. To the contrary, it appeared it would be inhibited from strengthening very rapidly yesterday, but today and tomorrow the pattern seemed that it would be more favorable.

The storm has weakened a bit and is not expected to maintain even this incredible high intensity, based on what we know about these things. Storms go through internal cycles of weakening and restrengthening, and usually end up weaker (in terms of the strongest wind anywhere in the storm) but bigger with strong winds spread over a larger area. Also, since it is a relatively small storm in size it does not control a lot of the atmosphere around it, so external factors like dry air or unfavorable upper winds are more likely to affect it. At least it is supposed to work that way.

But even if it weakens some, all indications are it is going to be very bad for some of our friends in Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. It is only a question of how very bad, and which parts of those countries gets the worst. Unless something completely unexpected happens, they will all feel the storm.
For the U.S., the threat remains for Florida and the East Coast. If anything, it has increased a bit today. And that is NOT because Matthew suddenly turned into a mega monster. It is because the future track is, seemingly, less certain.

There are three big reasons for increased uncertainty:
1) Matthew blew away all the models in intensifying so rapidly. What else don’t the models know? The models still don’t seem to have the intensity right even today.
2) Even bigger, the U.S. GFS has slowed down to be more like the Euro, meaning it will take longer to get through the Bahamas (which unfortunately would prolong the storm there). A slower storm means more forecast uncertainty since the steering pattern has time to change.
3) And annoyingly, since yesterday morning, the GFS has edged closer to Florida and the East Coast, all the way to New England. Sometimes the trend is important to pay attention to.

Having said that, the Euro is on the right side of the National Hurricane Center cone, farther east away from the U.S. And we normally trust the Euro a bit more concerning the general steering pattern. But it has been a bit inconsistent as well, and doesn’t seem to have a grasp on the strength of the storm.

NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are deploying their full resources to make the best forecasts possible for Matthew. They have deployed Hurricane Hunters to take measurements inside the storm essentially around the clock. And they are measuring the atmosphere all around Matthew plus the steering flow upstream to get the best information possible into the computer models. If there are deficiencies, they are in the state of modern science and our innate inclination to force certainty on a situation the science cannot resolve.

The bottom line: The only thing for certain is that a hurricane, possibly a very strong hurricane, is going to affect Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas early to midweek. Exactly where the storm will be on Wednesday is unknowable, and where it will be a week from now is less knowable than that. But Wednesday seems to be the time frame when the threat to the U.S. would begin, if it were to materialize.

This is a situation where everybody just needs to accept the uncertainty. Matthew is not going to pounce, so there will be time to prepare if you do common-sense things now. Stay informed. Stay aware. Be prepared.

[drezee]

Bryan Norcross posted this about an hour ago...

youu should post the link so that his website can get the traffic...

[chris_fit]

Bryan Norcross posted this about an hour ago...

youu should post the link so that his website can get the traffic...

It was on Facebook.... Here is a link to his post.

https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcro ... 1987415481

[chris_fit]

I was going to post something along the lines of why is this place so dead today, the GFS is still basically right off the FL Coast, and many models still have the NW bend ESE of FL, and Matthew is still chugging W with a hint of a S component. I don't think any threats to FL have decreased, yet. Mr. Norcross said it well, proceed with caution.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it has been going on for a few hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

I agree, there has been a clear moat for several hours.

I think we are in the meat of an EWRC judging from some other microwaves and the drop in intensity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 8_ch16.gif

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010733.GIF

Those are the same NOAA-19 pass. So is this.



Based on that pass, the spiral can be seen wrapping a little closer to the eyewall, probably signifying an eyewall replacement cycle would soon begin (and is likely underway now), but that NOAA-19 pass was bereft of an outer eyewall.

[1900hurricane]

Matthew's October ACE (and PDI) is already greater than it was in September.

[NDG]

Eye is clearing again.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

pretty sure it went south some more

[Sanibel]

GFDL wants to make a 90 degree right turn and almost a straight line north and east of Florida.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFDL wants to make a 90 degree right turn and almost a straight line north and east of Florida.

I dont see that happening this has to stop and turn today then.

[northjaxpro]

I was going to post something along the lines of why is this place so dead today, the GFS is still basically right off the FL Coast, and many models still have the NW bend ESE of FL, and Matthew is still chugging W with a hint of a S component. I don't think any threats to FL have decreased, yet. Mr. Norcross said it well, proceed with caution.

Totally agree with you. There is too much uncertainty past five days for anyone to sound the all-clear.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It almost looks like that during the past couple of hours it went back to a more South than due West heading but it could be just a wobble.

Definately went south!!

[Alyono]

any flooding for Columbia? There has been a death reported there already. I'm worried about that rainband lingering over the area

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks like a wobble SW in progress

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12