ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[fci]

Here in S.W. Florida, todays forecast brings in land storms to west coast. Past several days storms stayed inland. The ridge seems to be strengthening?

Not a pro

The much talked about ridge in the Atlantic has nothing to do with the movement of daily FL peninsula wet season sea breeze thunderstorms.

It does have some effect though. There has been a stronger ridge the entire summer and storms have moved west the entire summer.

Trough in Gulf has caused the upper level winds to be from the west and southwest this week thus the storms have effected the East Coast in late afternoons. In spite of the Easterly winds at the surface. Most of the summer, the seabreeze has brought storms to the East in early afternoon as it moves inland. This week that has not been the case.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like the low off New England keeps the opening.

[toad strangler]

Much further E

[pgoss11]

NW turn at hr 96..let's see where he goes from there.

[ObsessedMiami]

someday, someone will get a well deserved psychology Ph.D. by looking at the mental framework of the posters here, maybe in this thread. Can't count the times I have seen, "sigh of relief out to sea" and "trending westward" in back to back posts after any given model run.

[gatorcane]

Yep GFS shifts east again in the Bahamas.

[HurricaneFrances04]

someday, someone will get a well deserved psychology Ph.D. by looking at the mental framework of the posters here, maybe in this thread. Can't count the times I have seen, "sigh of relief out to sea" and "trending westward" in back to back posts after any given model run.

Maybe the models should only post once a day. Still run 4 times a day, but we only see the outcome of all 4 models once a day. That would put things in perspective for most.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, another shift east. Pretty insane.

[NDG]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 32m32 minutes ago

Today's nowcasting benchmark is easy. When does #Matthew begin moving north of due west? GFS and ECMWF say right now.

If anything it has been moving south of due west all morning long.

[pgoss11]

This is a slightly faster run and the storm is slightly NE of the previous 06z run.

[toad strangler]

Due N from 102 to 108. Big change.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here comes the ridge though.

[ObsessedMiami]

someday, someone will get a well deserved psychology Ph.D. by looking at the mental framework of the posters here, maybe in this thread. Can't count the times I have seen, "sigh of relief out to sea" and "trending westward" in back to back posts after any given model run.

Maybe the models should only post once a day. Still run 4 times a day, but we only see the outcome of all 4 models once a day. That would put things in perspective for most.

nah. I don't think that's the answer. You just need an industrial sized grain of salt and trust the NHC if anything major happens.

[TimeZone]

Western trend is done.

[HurricaneFrances04]

This run has a low off New England that the 18Z and 12Z didn't have. Despite's that, ridge still builds back in.

[pgoss11]

Western trend is done.

There is still a westerly component at hr 120.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Western trend is done.

Please stop. It's not even certain whether or not Jamaica gets a direct hit, and that's 48 hours away. We still have 20 more model runs to watch.

12Z is nearly identical to NHC 11 am forecast.

[centuryv58]

Western trend is done.

There is still a westerly component at hr 120.

Sure is. This wants to hit someone.

[SunnyThoughts]

Western trend is done.

There is still a westerly component at hr 120.

Yeah, looks to be headed to the Carolinas unless it moves more North in the next few panels.

[AutoPenalti]

Western trend is done.

I don't think so...