ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Did GI-V mission data even help? It seems we are still having some huge differences and wild swings (UKMET).

[otowntiger]

What impact would a stall have on the future track? If it has indeed stalled might that portend a shift in direction, i.e. North?

[Blown Away]

Moving SSW to me...

[tropicwatch]

I noticed that, Miss Piggy is on her way. Looking forward to seeing the center fixes on this mission.

[northjaxpro]

Matthew is almost about the cross 13 degrees Latititude moving slowly SW. He is at about 73.5 Longitude currently.

[otowntiger]

Moving SSW to me...

I'm pretty sure that will turn out to be a wobble. Watch, I bet it wobbles back around north in the next few frames. I doubt that this will be interpreted as overall motion. We will see. I could be wrong though. But I'm still pretty confident that the turn north will commence in time for the models to be vindicated with little if any short term track impact.

[Blown Away]

S of next forecast point by @12-20 miles... Likely not a big deal and the wobbles will average out on track...

[SouthFLTropics]

I mentioned this last night but never got an answer on it? Is it possible that the frictional affects of land from South America are inducing the more Southwest motion? And if so, I would guess that is not something that the models account for.

[HurricaneBelle]

any flooding for Columbia? There has been a death reported there already. I'm worried about that rainband lingering over the area

Sorry for this but it's been driving me crazy the past few days - it's COLOMBIA with 2 Os. Columbia is the Ivy League school in New York City.

[Dave C]

Heat content not very deep in this area, could this slow movement lead to some upwelling? Any way to weaken this much appreciated!

[Michele B]

Moving SSW to me...

I'm pretty sure that will turn out to be a wobble. Watch, I bet it wobbles back around north in the next few frames. I doubt that this will be interpreted as overall motion. We will see. I could be wrong though. But I'm still pretty confident that the turn north will commence in time for the models to be vindicated with little if any short term track impact.

If that's a 6 hour loop, that's a pretty big "wobble."

But I'm noticing a lot of assymetrical shaping taking place. I do think the ridge is having an effect on the western side of the storm, blowing tops off, etc. Weakening, for sure, if not yet turning it.

Geez, I looked at the model and track (as well as forecast track) at 8 this morning and I thought I could see a steady turn toward the north already. Come back a few hours later, and it DEFINITELY looks like it's still tracking SSW!!!! The northward jog must have been the wobble!

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the earlier weakening trend may have leveled off for now. I would guess recon finds this system around 115-120 kt right now compared to what Matthew looked like on satellite yesterday. We'll find out soon. I'm prepared to be wrong

[Sanibel]

Wobble prior to turn in my opinion.


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[SouthDadeFish]

With that being said, I don't think the environment is too favorable at that moment. Further weakening, even to a category 3 hurricane would not surprise me. The GFS shows the upper-level conditions improving markedly in about 24 hours where reintensification could occur.

[Macrocane]

Coughing out some pretty big outflow boundaries right now.

[northjaxpro]

Also, some dry air from the north may be trying to entrain into the outer periphery of the circulation.

[SouthDadeFish]

Coughing out some pretty big outflow boundaries right now.

I noticed this as well. The NW quadrant of the storm has collapsed on IR imagery over the past few hours, but it hasn't seemed to have reached the inner-core yet. Could be only a matter of time.

[Nimbus]

The last wobble with the eye covering up looked like it might be shear or the start of an eyewall replacement cycle, but it seems to have recovered some. Much more pronounced on the water vapor imagery. Matthew is moving so slow that it looks like we will just have to wait till he starts gaining latitude as forecast then check the upper air steering pattern.

I'm not sure what the UK model is on, I haven't researched it. Is the idea that because of a stall the Bermuda ridge has time to build back west?

[KWT]

As others have said the eye is wobbling around somewhat.

I think we may see this system do a small loop around, motion will swing pretty much back on track once its completed it.

IF that doesn't happen , then obviously there maybe bigger timing implications down the line.

[KWT]

With that being said, I don't think the environment is too favorable at that moment. Further weakening, even to a category 3 hurricane would not surprise me. The GFS shows the upper-level conditions improving markedly in about 24 hours where reintensification could occur.

Indeed I agree, I think some further weakening is likely for a time before the set-up aloft becomes very favourable again as it scoots N/NNW.