ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Aric Dunn]

126 hours.. heading nw towards SC with building ridging to the north. trough out west not moving east.. this is different.

[SFLcane]

Seems further westward at 126

[JPmia]

Except for the EURO's little jog east into the Gulf of Gonave, it appears it and the GFS are in general agreement with a track into the southeast Bahamas and then a NW track toward the Northeast Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

138 hours trough finally starts moving east.. going to get very close this time.

[tolakram]

[pgoss11]

Charleston says, "Stay away Matthew"

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models have been developed and tested by research staff from the Bureau's Research & Development Branch and are based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model. ACCESS output is available in map form or as gridded data products.

The model is a hybrid and often out performs the other global models.

[p1nheadlarry]

That low that could lure Matthew out is not budging the ridge.

[pgoss11]

Would this be Cat 3 off SC?

[p1nheadlarry]

Would this be Cat 3 off SC?

It's close to the intensity of Hugo.

[Hurricaneman]

Would this be Cat 3 off SC?

Likely to be unfortunately

[wxman57]

Intersting how the UKmet may have had the right idea.

When it took Matthew SW into Colombia? Or westward across northern Cuba? It has been extremely inconsistent with Matthew.

[pgoss11]

Would this be Cat 3 off SC?

It's close to the intensity of Hugo.

Well we'll just pray this doesn't happen.

[pgoss11]

If I'm not mistaken the UKMET did have a SC hit.

[Aric Dunn]

so essentially all the stalling today did was nothing.. except bring it in south at the same time.. lol the models really need to get a handle on the synoptics

[ronyan]

It's considerably slower compared to the 12z run.

[Blinhart]

Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models have been developed and tested by research staff from the Bureau's Research & Development Branch and are based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model. ACCESS output is available in map form or as gridded data products.

The model is a hybrid and often out performs the other global models.

hope this isn't true, this could turn out bad for a lot of people.

[MetroMike]

Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO.

[Alyono]

Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models have been developed and tested by research staff from the Bureau's Research & Development Branch and are based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model. ACCESS output is available in map form or as gridded data products.

The model is a hybrid and often out performs the other global models.

What is the horizontal and vertical resolution? What data assimilation scheme does it use? Is it 3DVAR or is it 4DVAR?

[weathaguyry]

Ok, what is going on with the models today???