ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looks a coastal hugger wreaking chaos just offshore then landfalls. Seen enough for now.

[FLpanhandle91]

OBX gets nailed by borderline cat 5 at hour 138.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Biggest 06z change on GFS...more ridging and faster forward speed.

No sign of his sister either...

[bamajammer4eva]

[xironman]

Might as well do a Sandy impersonation while you are at it

[FLpanhandle91]

This run would be a nightmare scenario.

[KWT]

Very big hit by the GFS!

Up the east coast on this run.

[FLpanhandle91]

Major hurricane into Long Island at hour 156.

[hurricaneCW]

We're getting closer to reality with these time frames. Euro was trending towards stronger ridging as well but there are still many things that could shift.

We won't know for sure until Matthew emerges in the Bahamas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Holy crap I went to bed last night thinking that we were all in the clear due the models shifting East, then wake up to both models shifting West and GFS now predicting a landfall??? Wow I didn't see that coming!. I guess we'll see what it shows tonight...

[bamajammer4eva]

After Caribbean Islands... Windshield wiper effect continues day to day. Major damage NC to Canada to the left OTS to the right

[FLpanhandle91]

After Caribbean Islands... Windshield wiper effect continues day to day. Major damage NC to Canada to the left OTS to the right

I'm not as light hearted after this run. Both euro and GFS have been trending toward stronger ridging for the past few runs, and the last two of each model adjusted tracks to react to stronger ridging. We're within a 5ish day window now to projected first landfall. Any major shift in models at this point warrants attention and preparations as needed.

[bamajammer4eva]

After Caribbean Islands... Windshield wiper effect continues day to day. Major damage NC to Canada to the left OTS to the right

I'm not as light hearted after this run. Both euro and GFS have been trending toward stronger ridging for the past few runs, and the last two of each model adjusted tracks to react to stronger ridging. We're within a 5ish day window now to projected first landfall. Any major shift in models at this point warrants attention and preparations as needed.

I think it is really up in the air until this clears the big islands because a lot can change depending on its interaction and how much they weaken the storm. If it weakens more than all of the models like to a TS then it could shift way west and then all models were wrong anyway. The models are just for entertainment for now imo but the forecasters have to go by something to make a forecast and make their best call and these models are the best they have to go by.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS 138hrs is still a little far out,and this is just a run things still could swing around alot before anything looks concrete.


LIKE this .

[xironman]

The GFS should have a pretty good grip on the upper air pattern at 138.

[NDG]

All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?

Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.

Compared to the Euro it has been a lot more consistent when the Euro has had its track shift by hundreds of miles.

[GCANE]

Just throwing up a few outliers here for consideration

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS little brother.

[AdamFirst]

Seems like we're throwing darts at a board at this juncture. Day 5 and the storm hasn't even gotten past Florida yet...still a long, long way to go.

[jlauderdal]

Just throwing up a few outliers here for consideration

prepare for incoming fire about those models...they could verify more by accident then sound modeling