ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Aric Dunn]

still of great concern is the models cant seem to get the initial motion correct and have not been for days.

[sphelps8681]

From the latest models at what point is the right turn suppose to take place?

[Evil Jeremy]

Only one of the 06z GFS ensembles made it past 78W. By my count, it looks like 8 or so crossed 78W in the 12z cycle, crossing that barrier around 26N. So the weight of the ensembles shifted west, and they are a bit more spread out now than before.

[SFLcane]

Not that it matters but BAMS shifted east 18z

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782659545927606272

[Bocadude85]

Not that it matters but BAMS shifted east 18z

But overall it looks like the 18z spaghetti plots shifted westward.

[Lighthousewatch28]

At this point, based on the model shift west, how does the coast of South Carolina look in terms of impacts?

[pgoss11]

At this point, based on the model shift west, how does the coast of South Carolina look in terms of impacts?

You really should ask this in the discussion thread. This is the model thread and not meant for banter.

[WeatherEmperor]

Dont expect any major left or right shifts on the 5pm NHc track. The TVCN model consensus barely moved either direction despite the Ukmet, Navgem and JMA shifting west.




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[tolakram]

12Z GEFS

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/782667503570919424




James Spann ‏@spann 25m25 minutes ago Vestavia Hills, AL
Matthew... 12Z GFS ensemble

[CalmBeforeStorm]

For what it's worth the 18z NAM has moved way to the west and much slower just clipping Jamaica. I know it's the NAM but it reinforces the overall westward shift of the models today.

[CrazyC83]

As for the east coast, I think timing is the key.

If Matthew is too slow (like the ECMWF) the Midwest trough doesn't touch it and the ridge rebuilds behind it. That stalls it out off the SE coast.

If Matthew is too fast, it beats the trough or clips it just enough to send it out to sea.

It need to time it right so that it draws it in - either directly or via phasing - but the ridge cannot rebuild.

[Aric Dunn]

For what it's worth the 18z NAM has moved way to the west and much slower just clipping Jamaica. I know it's the NAM but it reinforces the overall westward shift of the models today.

well at least for that models thinking. it is way way way slower..

[jlauderdal]

Although I'm getting more confident that Florida is in the clear, otherwise one of the models would have latched on to that by now, still not sure about the Carolinas

the ukmet brings it onshore so i am not sure why you would be getting more confident, i became less confident today as a result...not as much as if the gfs or euro brought it onshore but the ukemt is not something to be taken lightly

[ronjon]

I know it's only the NAM, but the 18z run shows stronger Atlantic ridging and at hour 84 Matt is moving W-NW JUST south of Andros Island.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS initialized...already has more ridging to the North of Matthew.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS initialized...already has more ridging to the North of Matthew.

yeah likely do the the upper air data.. but it immediate in 6 hours just makes it disappear magically. lol

[Blown Away]

18z GFS initialized...already has more ridging to the North of Matthew.

Unless upcoming recon finds significant ridging different from the modeling, I think Matt will move closely to the NHC track...

[floridasun78]

Not that it matters but BAMS shifted east 18z

what told by friend good with models he say bam goo0d weaker system like td