ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bevgo]

I wish I had a dollar every time someone has said north turn is started. I would be wealthy. When it does turn we will know. It will be more than 1 frame.it's north, now east, then south and west again. The dang storm is going in Louis. No change in direction has persisted to say going north now. Watch for persistence and watch the venture storm otherwise you are watching the eye making loops.

[jlauderdal]

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

it would be the opposite.

My thought would be that it would increase the odds to Florida/Georgia/SC but decrease the odds from NC north. A trough would catch it by the time it's up there but slower now allows the ridge to build in over the Bahamas and increase the threat to the SE.

it all depends how slow it moves out of the carib...if it takes to long the trough is gone and the ridge has built in and expanded west...watch levis video if there is any confusion about the setup
https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanet ... d=3&view=0


the track is low confidence because the ridging and trough are just not that strong so its unclear as to the winner and minor changes can cause huge implications for landfall or ots..this also proves just because you have a well developed system doesnt always translate to easy tracking and forecasts...we all complained about hermine in its early stages since it was so weak, well this one isnt proving to be easier to resolve..her we are 36 hours or less from Haiti and Jamiaca and we dont know if its actually going to make landfall..meanwhile we are trying to figure out if its going to hit land 5 days and beyond

[northjaxpro]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

If it ends moving much more slowly into the Bahamas out of the Caribbean, one would think the ridge would have even more of an opportunity to expand west and southward since right now the models have Matthew west of the ridge center around the time the ridge tries to build back west. So that could mean more of a NW or even WNW turn in the Bahamas if that would occur.

Good analysis!! I agree with this.

[gatorcane]

Matthew is clearly stuck. Last frame back to a south wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[ronjon]

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

If it ends moving much more slowly into the Bahamas out of the Caribbean, one would think the ridge would have even more of an opportunity to expand west and southward since right now the models have Matthew west of the ridge center around the time the ridge tries to build back west. So that could mean more of a NW or even WNW turn in the Bahamas if that would occur.

Good analysis!! I agree with this.

I know it's the NAM, but that's exactly what it shows on the 18z run.

[northjaxpro]

I wish I had a dollar every time someone has said north turn is started. I would be wealthy. When it does turn we will know. It will be more than 1 frame.it's north, now east, then south and west again. The dang storm is going in Louis. No change in direction has persisted to say going north now. Watch for persistence and watch the venture storm otherwise you are watching the eye making loops.

Amen!! I too have had enough of my fill of "the north turn has started" This storm has been l.p.moving W-NW to NW all day long albeit.creeping slowly. Then, we have had these stalls in between.

[JaxGator]

Matthew is clearly stuck. Last frame back to a south wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Looks like it but maybe it's the eye expanding instead?

[gatorcane]

Matthew is clearly stuck. Last frame back to a south wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Looks like it but maybe it's the eye expanding instead?

Yeah maybe but there is zero movement. Not always easy extracting a storm from deep in the Caribbean. Models can extract too quickly as we are seeing first-hand.

[jlauderdal]

If it ends moving much more slowly into the Bahamas out of the Caribbean, one would think the ridge would have even more of an opportunity to expand west and southward since right now the models have Matthew west of the ridge center around the time the ridge tries to build back west. So that could mean more of a NW or even WNW turn in the Bahamas if that would occur.

Good analysis!! I agree with this.

I know it's the NAM, but that's exactly what it shows on the 18z run.

the nam has been renamed "I know I am the NAM but I'm Ok"

[JaxGator]

Matthew is clearly stuck. Last frame back to a south wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Looks like it but maybe it's the eye expanding instead?

Yeah maybe but there is zero movement.

I agree with you there, he hasn't moved. And for sure.

[Cdavis]

I live in central east coast fl and have family in se fl. I have seen posts that were in panick mode and my advise is chill lol. My best guess is this won't make landfall in Florida but could come close and skirt the coast and by the models come especially close to the Melbourne/Daytona coast line as a strong storm. Possibly strong bands and a lot of rain. I heard someone in Publix today warning everyone that a cat 3 was gonna hit us next week. Lol . local mets here are saying let's watch what happens after north of Cuba. I think impacts of some sort are very probable to Florida but let's give it a few days.

[TJRE]

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... ic-ir-1-24

Watch the amazingly fast spin around the eyewall as it clears......DANG what is going on in there???

[sponger]

Quite a neat wobble it did. We almost want to will it out of the Caribbean but we will be doing this all week!

[Aric Dunn]

Matthew is clearly stuck. Last frame back to a south wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Looks like it but maybe it's the eye expanding instead?

well recon confirms at least on this pass. stationary.

[Ken711]

Is there anything that could prevent a poleward north move, or is north movement at some point a given?

[Bocadude85]

If it ends moving much more slowly into the Bahamas out of the Caribbean, one would think the ridge would have even more of an opportunity to expand west and southward since right now the models have Matthew west of the ridge center around the time the ridge tries to build back west. So that could mean more of a NW or even WNW turn in the Bahamas if that would occur.

Good analysis!! I agree with this.

I know it's the NAM, but that's exactly what it shows on the 18z run.

The NAM has shown some unique tracks with this storm,but I have been watching it for days and it really hasn't performed all that poorly. It showed the SW movement fairly well. Here is the 0Z run of the NAM from September 29th showing the SW dip prior to it occurring and showing Matthew moving further SW then a lot of the models.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092900&fh=-21&xpos=0&ypos=0

[JaxGator]

Matthew is clearly stuck. Last frame back to a south wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Looks like it but maybe it's the eye expanding instead?

well recon confirms at least on this pass. stationary.

Wow, right on 75W. We'll have to wait..again.

[toad strangler]

Is there anything that could prevent a poleward north move, or is north movement at some point a given?

A given. Tropical cyclones, especially stacked high Cat types will move poleward as soon as the atmosphere gives it a crease or wide open door.

[bob rulz]

Well, I don't know the answer to that question, but let's say if it doesn't move north then that would mean the models busted on this in a way that hasn't been seen in many many years.

[Evil Jeremy]

The last NHC advisory to forecast Matthew crossing 75W before 15N was October 1st, 5am. I overlayed that cone with Matt's track since.



Not too shabby.