ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evenstar]

27.33% is quite large for SEC hit. My gut says this ridge is building in and will build in stronger that the models just are not seeing, however the models have not been all that great. That trough is moving east and will allow the ridge to reach potential quicker along with the fact that matty ice is moving so slow. This storm is doing some of its own thinking and the long term is very uncertain

I was joking about the exact percentages but I feel like 1 in 4 and 1 in 10ish is reasonable. There is a bias for believing these storms are going to go over your house. Does anyone know why that is? I fight that feeling every day. Why doesn't anyone in Florida believe the ridge is going to be weaker than forecast? Why doesn't anyone think that any feature that ensures OTS will be stronger than forecast? We humans and our gut feelings are weird........

I think it's very similar to what makes roller coasters popular. We all know it's stupid to WANT to be thrown around in something man made, and therefore fallable, at a height that could kill you. It doesn't make a good portion of the population want to do it any less. We all know we'd rather not have a hurricane destroy any area, but there's still that thrill of being in one.

It's all fun and games till someone gets their eye poked out.

[psyclone]

Great discussion as usual by Stewart. The slightly more westerly track has bumped up the TS wind probs for the Florida east coast...now just shy of 30% from Ft Lauderdale up through the treasure coast...those numbers are also going up for the Carolinas.

[HDGator]

After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba,
Matthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within
southeasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge
located over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to
upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now
show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger
storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is
forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected.
This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over
the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have
responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track,
mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However,
the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and
GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model.

There are few things better than a Stewart disco to cut through the noise. He has a talent to paint a clear picture of what you're facing while explaining the uncertainties in the long-term track. After many a late night in 2004/5 seasons in South Florida, I'd nominate him for sainthood and I was very happy to see him return to NHC after his tours overseas.

[blp]

That discussion by Stewart was very good as usual. He is usually quite detailed and he lets you in on some of the thinking. Other forecasters leave out some of the details and keep it broad. He laid out the uncertainity that still exists. Just my opinion but if this continues to meandar I think he might be setting the stage for what could be a model shift.

[1900hurricane]

Uhh, helpful?

[ozonepete]

Um, No, lol

[blp]

Uhh, helpful?

[]http://i.imgur.com/VREotX1.jpg[/img]

Wow that is a much weaker profile.

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: Um, No, lol

Why not? seems like it's struggling with upwelling

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Um, No, lol

Why not? seems like it's struggling with upwelling

I believe he was asking does a blurry 89ghz satellite image like that help us determine what's going on. So I answered no. Some of these images don't come out as well as others. There are many ways they can be compromised and thus tell us very little.

[1900hurricane]

:uarrow: Um, No, lol

Why not? seems like it's struggling with upwelling

That Metop-A pass is too low of a resolution to pick out the finer scale details of Matthew's core. We should be getting a Metop-B pass soon too, but that one will likely have the same problem.

[acinonyx]

First post here. I note that the forecast track is going to pass near or over Navassa Island, in between Haiti and Jamaica. Given that this, naturally, belongs to the United States (no, really, it does) as an unorganized, unincorporated territory (well Haiti also claims it so it's a disputed territory, I guess), if it does make landfall there, one *could* possibly argue that it's a US landfalling hurricane.....

[1900hurricane]

As expected...

[SouthernBreeze]

Wow, this GFS run smashes Haiti, clips E tip of Cuba, plows up through the Bahama island chain, then WAY too close for comfort in Carolinas!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

As expected...

As expected....Pacman is involved!

[Ptarmigan]

What on earth is that blob doing?

I keep seeing that area of thunderstorm east of Matthew.

I have seen areas of thunderstorms east of hurricanes. I wonder what causes them.

If there was a landfalling hurricane like Matthew, the thunderstorm east of the hurricane would be a second hit.

[Evenstar]

First post here. I note that the forecast track is going to pass near or over Navassa Island, in between Haiti and Jamaica. Given that this, naturally, belongs to the United States (no, really, it does) as an unorganized, unincorporated territory (well Haiti also claims it so it's a disputed territory, I guess), if it does make landfall there, one *could* possibly argue that it's a US landfalling hurricane.....

Climatological semantics. I like it.

[Hurricaneman]

Unfortunately that blob will go over all of Hispaniola which will be devastating

[SouthernBreeze]

latest GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016100300&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=94

[SunnyThoughts]

Buoy 42058 , 210 miles from Jamaica wind gusts almost to hurricane strength now http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058 33ft wave height

[WHYB630]

Buoy 42058 , 210 miles from Jamaica wind gusts almost to hurricane strength now http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058 33ft wave height

74kts IS hurricane strength

btw,

The pressure is free falling.
Maybe that means the storm is quickly approaching the buoy or/and still intensifying