ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[pgoss11]

Anyone have a link to the latest UKMET run?

[Nimbus]

Matthew seems to be behaving according to the NHC in the short run rolling north just east of the 75N longitude.

The 00Z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF all suggesting an OTS solution is still possible, the NHC official track shift east is comforting.

After reading the Storm2k posts concerning the Euro I guess I can wait till later today for consensus concerning Florida, but no doubt the mountainous peninsula areas on Haiti are going to get some massive upslope rain even if the core of Matthew passes offshore.

Guess its not possible to send a relief ship.

[ronjon]

For all the criticism of the NAM, if this westward trend verifies, it was the first model to pick up stronger Atlantic ridging with its 18z run last night.

[ronjon]

Model summary (10/3):

CMC: Shifted west
NAVGEM: Shifted west
UKMET: Shifted east
ECM: Shifted west
GFS: Same
NAM: Shifted west

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Model summary (10/3):

CMC: Shifted west
NAVGEM: Shifted west
UKMET: Shifted east
ECM: Shifted west
GFS: Same
NAM: Shifted west

You can throw the FIM in there with a significant west shift also.

[caneman]

Model summary (10/3):

CMC: Shifted west
NAVGEM: Shifted west
UKMET: Shifted east
ECM: Shifted west
GFS: Same
NAM: Shifted west

And UKMET flips west then east with each model run. So the next one could likely be west again. I'm waiting on next GFS.

[RL3AO]

Comparing 0z Euro and 6z GFS this morning trying to pick out the differences.

Through 72 hours they are very similar synoptically. About the same with the trough off New England and the digging trough into Manitoba and SW US. The GFS is faster with the storm between 0z Wed and 0z Thur.

Through 96 hours, the Euro is more progressive with the trough now moving east away from the US north of Bermuda. GFS is a touch slower and stronger with it. Since it was faster earlier in the run, it now has the storm exiting the Bahamas moving NNW, while the slower Euro is further south near Grand Bahama and moving NW.

By day 5, the synoptic pattern becomes much different. The GFS, with the quicker storm movement has a northward moving storm east of South Carolina with a much stronger and progressive trough in the central US. The Euro is much weaker keeping this trough with two pieces - one in Manitoba and the other digging into Colorado. The slower initial movement has allowed it to move further NW and it is now ~100 miles east of Jacksonville.

The differences by day 6 are borderline absurd. They don't even have the same pattern. GFS much much stronger with trough while the Euro has a much weaker and slower reflection.

[terstorm1012]

Some of these modeling problems really could be resolved with sampling flights off of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. How many drones does NOAA have?

balloon releases will really help over the next couple days.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the shift west is a HUGE eye opener for sure!! The real potential of Matthew coming within 100 miles of the coast would bring very significant impacts all up and down the Florida East Coast in the next 4-5 days. My my this potentially could be some nerve wrecking week!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Has that australian model run again yet? the acess or access model?

[gatorcane]

ECMWF ensemble run from last night again so you don't have to sift back through the posts from last night

https://mobile.twitter.com/RaleighWx/st ... 0807407616

[BobHarlem]

6Z GFDL into Morehead city Saturday.

[stormlover2013]

Ensembles have been struggling for the euro

[ronjon]

06z GFDL - down to 913 mb in northern Bahamas!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=14L&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016100306&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=195

[NDG]

I counted 28 out of 50 Euro ensemble members that are to the left of its operational run.

[LJFire1467]

I have a Coast Guard shipmate at Gitmo, they are preparing for a Cat 3. Is there going to be more strengthening before landfall there?

[Kingarabian]

I counted 28 out of 50 Euro ensemble members that are to the left of its operational run.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/Mattmodels2_zpspek1fr64.jpg[img]

Interesting.

But I remember when Hurricane Lester was moving towards the pacific. The EPS showed a track over Hawaii compared to a track east of Hawaii for the operational for a while. In the end they shifted back in line with the operational Euro away from Hawaii.

[AutoPenalti]

I counted 28 out of 50 Euro ensemble members that are to the left of its operational run.

That's literally more than half the ensembles... that's a growing concern.

[stormlover2013]

they have been struggling!!!!

[Kingarabian]

Ensembles have been struggling for the euro

Agreed. The steering situation for Matthew is so complex that even sets of ensembles are windshield wiping.