ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

UKMET showing right up coast of Florida INTO GA. Unbelievable!

[Evil Jeremy]

UKMET into Florida!

That, plus the new GFS, plus the most recent ECMWF (and it's "priority" ensembles) is making me very concerned. Stronger ridge, and we're entering the timeframe when models zero in on a solution.

[SFLcane]

12z Canadian also comes way west

[sponger]

If the Euro maintains its westward shift on the next run, we may be looking at a somewhat significant shift in the track by the NHC by the 5pm advisory.

Seems like a given now. Maybe 50 miles West.

[bg1]

UKMET showing right up coast of Florida INTO GA. Unbelievable!

And then right through my area. How... lovely.

[La Sirena]

UKMET into Florida!

That, plus the new GFS, plus the most recent ECMWF (and it's "priority" ensembles) is making me very concerned. Stronger ridge, and we're entering the timeframe when models zero in on a solution.

Yeah, a lot of big things at play topped off with the west trend cherry on top!

[HurricaneBelle]

UKMET showing right up coast of Florida INTO GA. Unbelievable!

With the exception of today's 00z run, the UKMET has consistently been left-biased into Florida for days now, so this run is no surprise.

[WYNweather]

The timing With the tides are going to be Interesting.

Hillsboro Inlet:

2016-10-05 Wed 5:48 AM EDT 0.6 feet Low Tide

2016-10-05 Wed 11:58 AM EDT 3.0 feet High Tide
2016-10-05 Wed 6:15 PM EDT 0.9 feet Low Tide

2016-10-06 Thu 12:02 AM EDT 2.8 feet High Tide
2016-10-06 Thu 6:28 AM EDT 0.7 feet Low Tide

2016-10-06 Thu 12:40 PM EDT 2.9 feet High Tide
2016-10-06 Thu 6:58 PM EDT 1.1 feet Low Tide

2016-10-07 Fri 12:43 AM EDT 2.7 feet High Tide
2016-10-07 Fri 7:11 AM EDT 0.8 feet Low Tide

2016-10-07 Fri 1:27 PM EDT 2.8 feet High Tide

[sponger]

Going to be a lot of surprised people getting home this evening.

[wzrgirl1]

I am quite shocked right now. I am off today because it is a Jewish holiday. I think I will take advantage and do a bit of grocery shopping that I have been putting off. Wow. Just wow.

[FLLurker32]

If the Euro maintains its westward shift on the next run, we may be looking at a somewhat significant shift in the track by the NHC by the 5pm advisory.

Seems like a given now. Maybe 50 miles West.

Maybe more. Ukmet now on board again.

[tolakram]

Live visible. Looks to be improving by the minute.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[Ken711]

UKMET showing right up coast of Florida INTO GA. Unbelievable!

I think the GFS track will prove correct as a coastal hugger up the SC/NC coast lines.

[gatorcane]

I am quite shocked right now. I am off today because it is a Jewish holiday. I think I will take advantage and do a bit of grocery shopping that I have been putting off. Wow. Just wow.

A lot of folks along the Eastern coast of Florida are probably going to think just like you if Matthew ends up hitting or at least getting close enough to cause hurricane winds - DESPITE the NHC warning in every single discussion they have issued that folks in Florida cannot rule out hurricane impacts, folks here are too accustomed to watching storms and hurricanes past by to the east with minimal impact on the FL east coast. This may just be one of those times, the luck runs out...we shall see.

[FLLurker32]

I am quite shocked right now. I am off today because it is a Jewish holiday. I think I will take advantage and do a bit of grocery shopping that I have been putting off. Wow. Just wow.

A lot of folks along the Eastern coast of Florida are probably going to think just like you if Matthew ends up hitting or at least getting close enough to cause hurricane winds - DESPITE the NHC warning in every single discussion they have issued that folks in Florida cannot rule out hurricane impacts, folks here are too accustomed to watching storms and hurricanes past by to the east with minimal impact on the FL east coast. This may just be one of those times, the luck runs out...we shall see.

Are you in Alachua?

[robbielyn]

How does 98L play into this if at all? I see it's supposed to develop with 40-60% chance.

[PTrackerLA]

This is just crazy guys, Florida to NC now very much in play. NHC forecast track is much slower than what the GFS and CMC show. I wonder if we could see a landfall forecasted at 4pm?

[sponger]

Where is rapid scan when you need it?

[wzrgirl1]

I am quite shocked right now. I am off today because it is a Jewish holiday. I think I will take advantage and do a bit of grocery shopping that I have been putting off. Wow. Just wow.

A lot of folks along the Eastern coast of Florida are probably going to think just like you if Matthew ends up hitting or at least getting close enough to cause hurricane winds - DESPITE the NHC warning in every single discussion they have issued that folks in Florida cannot rule out hurricane impacts, folks here are too accustomed to watching storms and hurricanes past by to the east with minimal impact on the FL east coast. This may just be one of those times, the luck runs out...we shall see.

Are you in Alachua?

Not sure if you are speaking to me or not but I am in Broward County down south.

[HurricaneBelle]

For those who remember Arrested Development....