ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4221 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:05 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.


The current method isn't broken. It's been on point so far. The variability and uncertainty is already accounted for. Additionally, NHC has other products that provide more information than the cone. For example, while Florida is only incredibly barely in the cone, much of the FL East coast has a 20%-40% chance of TS winds. This method of delivering information works.


Here's the problem. Before the cone, they just showed the projected track as a line. So the uninformed treated the line as gospel and claimed to be surprised when the hurricane moved somewhere else. So now they've implemented the cone, and everyone treats the cone as gospel. I can't believe how many times people have done the "we're in the cone/we're not in the cone" dance when we're talking about track error at 5 days when only a few miles are at stake. Alyono has a good sticky about the cone that more people should read, as it has nothing to do with potential storm impacts over a given area.

But yeah, as I've mentioned before, and as Evil Jeremy mentions here, the real thing to watch are the wind speed probabilities which are broken down into low-end TS force winds, high-end TS force winds, and hurricane-force winds. These are more revealing than a cone that has nothing to do with forecast uncertainty and everything to do with historic track error. Why these are always forgotten around here I don't know - they never get posted in the advisories thread, and hardly anyone discusses them.
Last edited by HurricaneBelle on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
3 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4222 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:09 pm

Seeing some reports than more than 8 inches of rain has already fallen in the DR. May have mudslides ongoing there now
0 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4223 Postby Raebie » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:09 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Raebie wrote:Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.
so the tv met is only buying the euro..fair enough but you know better to not too hang one model at this point..this is the biggest euro run in a very long time for the united states..less than an hour to go...a major hurricane with a shot to hit the usa in heavily populated areas..havent seen this in a very long time


He's actually a very good met. But he seems to be overly biased to the Euro right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4224 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:09 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.


The current method isn't broken. It's been on point so far. The variability and uncertainty is already accounted for. Additionally, NHC has other products that provide more information than the cone. For example, while Florida is only incredibly barely in the cone, much of the FL East coast has a 20%-40% chance of TS winds. This method of delivering information works.


Here's the problem. Before the cone, they just showed the projected track as a line. So the uniformed treated the line as gospel and claimed to be surprised when the hurricane moved somewhere else. So now they've implemented the cone, and everyone treats the cone as gospel. I can't believe how many times people have done the "we're in the cone/we're not in the cone" dance when we're talking about track error at 5 days when only a few miles are at stake. Aloyno has a good sticky about the cone that more people should read, as it has nothing to do with potential storm impacts over a given area.

But yeah, as I've mentioned before, and as Evil Jeremy mentions here, the real thing to watch are the wind speed probabilities which are broken down into low-end TS force winds, high-end TS force winds, and hurricane-force winds. These are more revealing than a cone that has nothing to do with forecast uncertainty and everything to do with historic track error. Why these are always forgotten around here I don't know - they never get posted in the advisories thread, and hardly anyone discusses them.


This is why I'm personally against expanding the cone beyond 5 days. For the past half decade there has been talk of a 7 day cone, and I believe it's being tested internally. That said, I don't think it's necessary. Actually, I think it would make things worse. We can't nail down a 5 day forecast, a 7 day forecast would only add more media/hype fuel, and seeing wild swings that far out would lower the confidence (non-weather watching) people have in the cone overall.
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4769
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4225 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:10 pm

I mention the wind probs all the time. it is one of the most valuable items in the advisories. The cone is the most misunderstood weather products out there. and it's not difficult to understand. It's baffling to me. Even more incredible is the fact that TV mets and other weather professionals routinely screw it up/misinterpret it. it's head against the wall material.
3 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4226 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:10 pm

NAVGAM now showing into SFL enroute to Tampa!
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4237
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4227 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:12 pm

RL3AO wrote:The SSHWS is based on knots. 113 knots starts category 4 which is really 115 knots because they use 5 knot increments. 115 knots = 132 mph which rounds down to 130 mph.

In the past, there was an issue rounding a 115 knot wind to mph that made a cat 4 (knots) look like a cat 3 (mph). The scale was adjusted to fix this issue.

Here's a document for the benefit of those wanting more info about the change.
0 likes   

WilmingtonSandbar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 505
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Southport, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4228 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:13 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
birddogsc wrote:Landfall near Myrtle Beach as depicted in the GFS is a nightmare scenario for SC. Getting traffic out from there is not easy, and only one road supports lane reversal if needed.


On the plus side, this is a slow mover that should allow decent advance-notice (at least for long-lead preparations), and it's October, not August, so the beach-going crowds should be smaller.


Also on the plus side, it is the lull between the summer tourist season and the Canadian snow bird season, so there normally would be fewer people in town beyond the locals.
1 likes   
Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence

OntarioEggplant
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:16 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4229 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:13 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.


The current method isn't broken. It's been on point so far. The variability and uncertainty is already accounted for. Additionally, NHC has other products that provide more information than the cone. For example, while Florida is only incredibly barely in the cone, much of the FL East coast has a 20%-40% chance of TS winds. This method of delivering information works.


It is not accounted for. The cone is purely based on NHC error only. The public does not care about the other products, frankly, they only pay attention to the cone.
0 likes   

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1114
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4230 Postby Michele B » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:14 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
The current method isn't broken. It's been on point so far. The variability and uncertainty is already accounted for. Additionally, NHC has other products that provide more information than the cone. For example, while Florida is only incredibly barely in the cone, much of the FL East coast has a 20%-40% chance of TS winds. This method of delivering information works.


Here's the problem. Before the cone, they just showed the projected track as a line. So the uniformed treated the line as gospel and claimed to be surprised when the hurricane moved somewhere else. So now they've implemented the cone, and everyone treats the cone as gospel. I can't believe how many times people have done the "we're in the cone/we're not in the cone" dance when we're talking about track error at 5 days when only a few miles are at stake. Aloyno has a good sticky about the cone that more people should read, as it has nothing to do with potential storm impacts over a given area.

But yeah, as I've mentioned before, and as Evil Jeremy mentions here, the real thing to watch are the wind speed probabilities which are broken down into low-end TS force winds, high-end TS force winds, and hurricane-force winds. These are more revealing than a cone that has nothing to do with forecast uncertainty and everything to do with historic track error. Why these are always forgotten around here I don't know - they never get posted in the advisories thread, and hardly anyone discusses them.


This is why I'm personally against expanding the cone beyond 5 days. For the past half decade there has been talk of a 7 day cone, and I believe it's being tested internally. That said, I don't think it's necessary. Actually, I think it would make things worse. We can't nail down a 5 day forecast, a 7 day forecast would only add more media/hype fuel, and seeing wild swings that far out would lower the confidence (non-weather watching) people have in the cone overall.


I would be in favor of a further cone (7 days vs 5 days) ONLY IF CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH of a certain outcome. Sometimes, there's nothing that's going to change a storm's trajectory (think Andrew, '92).

But when the steering currents are weak, or being overtaken by other currents, then I think they (who's "they" again??) owe it to the public to NOT confuse people, or lull them into a false sense of security by saying, oh", you're area is out of danger already." I believe I've heard that about a FL landfall about 8 times already since Friday!
0 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

User avatar
WPBWeather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4231 Postby WPBWeather » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:14 pm

sponger wrote:NAVGAM now showing into SFL enroute to Tampa!


Now that is what I call a MAX west shift. Hard to believe this thing's potential movements.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4232 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:15 pm

Alyono wrote:Seeing some reports than more than 8 inches of rain has already fallen in the DR. May have mudslides ongoing there now


I saw that as well. I am very worried about the news that will emerge from Hispaniola over the next few days. The slow progress of the storm combined with its large moisture envelope has catastrophic potential.
0 likes   

OntarioEggplant
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:16 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4233 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:15 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.
so its up to the forecaster to draw the cone? the cone will move as the track shifts accordingly, i like the cone as there is no randomness or opinion...if the private forecasters including media want to step out and make a forecast than they can..look, there is plenty of time to get ready in florida, everybody is warned before june 1 in hurricane areas to have supplies and a plan..if you dont then you should


No. By accounting for the variability in models, it shouldn't shift much overall, it just makes a larger cone. The shifts would be very slight unless there was a massive shift in all models with good agreement.
0 likes   

ThetaE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:50 pm
Location: Boston

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4234 Postby ThetaE » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:16 pm

Interesting... Is it me, or has Matthew finally begun the long-awaited NNE turn?

Image
Wobble Watching! :spam:

Well, maybe "turn" is a generous word. More like a lean.
Last edited by ThetaE on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
I'm a busy grad student, not a professional forecaster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4235 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:16 pm

Alyono wrote:Seeing some reports than more than 8 inches of rain has already fallen in the DR. May have mudslides ongoing there now


The event has barely started for them as well, got a solid 24hrs of really heavy rain for that neck of the woods to come yet...cannot see anything but mudslides and death from this.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7359
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4236 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:16 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Alyono wrote:Seeing some reports than more than 8 inches of rain has already fallen in the DR. May have mudslides ongoing there now


I saw that as well. I am very worried about the news that will emerge from Hispaniola over the next few days. The slow progress of the storm combined with its large moisture envelope has catastrophic potential.


and not just there, portions of the east coast of the US could see considerable damage depending on track
0 likes   

BirdyCin
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:29 am
Location: Dania Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4237 Postby BirdyCin » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:17 pm

Brevard County EOC beginning the distribution of sandbags:
http://apps.brevardcounty.us/PublicInfo ... px?ID=2937
1 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4238 Postby Raebie » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:19 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
birddogsc wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Can you say HUGO II ?


A little north, but yes. That is the southern Grand Strand area, and evac will be a mess.

Local WX folks are not sold on the trend west. The term finger ridge was brought up on a recent call and was dismissed. When will the next Euro run start?


In a little less than an hour.

And there aren't many roads out of Myrtle or Wilmington. Basically Columbia, Charlotte, and Raleigh the only directions with a few national highways. ILM doesn't do I-40 lane reversal anymore as a plan for mass-evac. Would be nuts.


Well the good news is that UNC Wilmington is out on fall break next Thursday and Friday. Tons of students will be heading out for home mid-week. Daughter is about to get instructions to join them.
Last edited by Raebie on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4239 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:19 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.
so its up to the forecaster to draw the cone? the cone will move as the track shifts accordingly, i like the cone as there is no randomness or opinion...if the private forecasters including media want to step out and make a forecast than they can..look, there is plenty of time to get ready in florida, everybody is warned before june 1 in hurricane areas to have supplies and a plan..if you dont then you should


No. By accounting for the variability in models, it shouldn't shift much overall, it just makes a larger cone. The shifts would be very slight unless there was a massive shift in all models with good agreement.


So what you want is a larger cone basically? The size of the cone is determined by statistical error.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4240 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:20 pm

Alot of mets seems to be banking on the trends that is recently happening not really reflecting reality, risky to go down that route for sure!

Does seem like an east hint to the motion, still near due north but a touch east, like 5 degrees or something.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 4 guests