ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

Ok now a significant west shift with the GFS ensembles. Not much doubt now ECM will probably shift west at 12z.

[miamijaaz]

NAVGEM GIF, for what it's worth.

That NAVGEM run could be a worst case scenario for Florida. A possible major hurricane landfalling in South Florida bisecting the state and exiting over Tampa, raking Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando counties while just offshore, then curving into the Big Bend (close to Hermine's landfall) and then hitting Jacksonville with its west side while traveling to Georgia.

Of course, it's the NAVGEM

That pretty much affects every large city in Florida. Thank God it's the NAVGEM!

[gatorcane]

Cluster of GFS ensembles very near Palm Beach County over SE Florida:

[AutoPenalti]

Isn't the NAVGEM a terrible model? Or am I confusing it with another one?

It's not that TERRIBLE of a model, it's actually pretty good when it comes to atmospheric patterns.

[stormreader]

UKM quick plot



Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955

Very rare to get a North Florida/GA landfall from deep tropics... Usually the trend will be stronger ridge pushing system south of Vero Florida or trend East of GA/SC line...

In Oct, a track in the E GOM just W of W FL has been more common than this if I'm not mistaken. Also, if the W trends continue, runs are possibly going to start showing tracks near the Keys to far E GOM by late tomorrow or Wed. All it would take would be a 150 mile W shift from the 12Z UK.

Exactly right for an early October storm. E GOM pretty normal for that time of year. Coming up from Caribbean with models for a long time showing relatively strong ridging (but picking up on phantom localized weaknesses), you had to think that the storm would take a relatively normal track from the Caribbean to the E GOM. I though that Key West and then up the W Fl coast was most likely. Its like the models "over-thought" the situation, made a relatively simple solution more complicated.

[caneseddy]

Cluster of GFS ensembles very near Palm Beach County over SE Florida:

Not very comforting to see that if you are in Florida. Let's see what the Euro says and if continues trending west. If it shifts east, I'm going to pull my hair out.

[AutoPenalti]

IIRC, the NASA model also had the same thing ~3 days ago that NAVGEM and NAM has now.

[tolakram]

GEFS

[tolakram]

Isn't the NAVGEM a terrible model? Or am I confusing it with another one?

It's not that TERRIBLE of a model, it's actually pretty good when it comes to atmospheric patterns.

I'm not aware of it being anything but terrible. The NAM, which is a different model, is good at upper air, not good in the tropics. NAVGEM is what used to be called NOGAPS.

[tolakram]

Keep in mind a lot of posts here are being deleted as off topic. If you have something you want to say and want it to be read the discussion thread is where you want to be. Opinions posts do not belong here unless they are specifically discussing the data. Thanks for your cooperation.

[NDG]

For what's is worth 12z GFDL shifted westward, right over Nassau.

[bamajammer4eva]

If you look back to the first page or two in this model topic, Florida or the gulf was what gfs originally showed. It just took a path through Western Cuba to get there. Maybe it had the overall pattern right all along but then minor details in the medium range obscured it's forecast.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

[SouthFLTropics]

GFDL 926MB right over Grand Bahama Island in 84 hours. The HWRF has it east of that location at 66 hours. The GFDL timing is more in line with the GFS and is still probably a hair too fast. The trend is not Florida's friend today!!!

[cycloneye]

Funny.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782996722347671552

[NDG]

Even the right biased HWRF shifted west, 18z TVCN consensus will shift westward by a good 70 miles and so will the NHC track on its next full advisory, IMO.

[dukeblue219]

That GFDL imagery has to be frightening for fellow Hugo survivors in Charleston. It puts a 920mb storm with 129kt winds right off the coast of Charleston, fringing it with hurricane force winds, while moving it straight north into an eventual Georgetown, SC landfall. It's not that I think a 108-hour GFDL forecast will verify verbatim, but that eye looks fearsome spinning right off the Isle of Palms.

[tolakram]

12Z Init

[tolakram]

HWRF, which has a very bad track record for this storm, heading straight for the coast.

[PTrackerLA]

Not a single 12z model keeps Matthew offshore of the USA, WOW. Euro rolling now this is a huge run.

[tolakram]