ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NWFL56]

Rick Scott ( gov of Fla) news conference on the weather channel right now...

Florida under State of Emergency.

TWC met Parker is saying the governors language is too harsh since it will probably be offshore.

Maybe he learned a little something from Hermine. Let's hope so.

[sponger]

It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?

[sponger]

It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?

This Sun Sentinal article claims 10 feet. Of course its title was, "
Hurricane Matthew approaches Haiti, as risk to Florida declines"


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... story.html

That seems low for a slow moving Cat 4 with the island in the right quad.

[otterlyspicey]

Matthew is really liking that eastward movement on the latest satellite images.

[tropicwatch]

It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?

This Sun Sentinal article claims 10 feet. Of course its title was, "
Hurricane Matthew approaches Haiti, as risk to Florida declines"


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... story.html

That article and headline was from early this morning. Obviously they didn't know about the westward shift in the models that was coming up.

[FLLurker32]

As was pointed out, there are a lot of tools available for emergency managers even compared to 2005. They can narrow down evacuations to very small scale areas. Remember, the United States evacuates almost entirely for storm surge. If you aren't in a storm surge threatened area and aren't told to evacuate, then you shouldn't evacuate. Of course exceptions to those in weak buildings apply.

Unless you just don't want to deal with 11 days with no electricity! (Charley, 2004)

I drove through Punta Gorda and surrounding areas about 5 days after Charley. Going through a metropolitan area and seeing it pitch black outside is creepy. Those huge steel 200 ft lamp posts on the interstate were completely bent to the ground. A lot of people see that Cat # and know it's a bad one but experiencing one is very different. They're terrifying.

[sponger]

It looks like the Western tip is going to get the eye. Anyone have any idea on storm surge potential?

This Sun Sentinal article claims 10 feet. Of course its title was, "
Hurricane Matthew approaches Haiti, as risk to Florida declines"


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... story.html

That article and headline was from early this morning. Obviously they didn't know about the westward shift in the models that was coming up.

Should we send them a storm2k link???

[artist]

Ryan Maue 

@RyanMaue

@RyanMaue updated through Hour 150. 3 distinct clusters including many members over Florida. pic.twitter.com/QpV7yiChF1

1:26 PM - 3 Oct 2016

[TheStormExpert]

Awaiting that 5pm advisory, should be an interesting one!

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783040298779893760

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory is in:

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

[otterlyspicey]

Awaiting that 5pm advisory, should be an interesting one!

Already out! Strength the same in wind and pressure.

[artist]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2033.shtml?
Wind probabilities for south Florida upped quite a bit for the 5 oclock

[Evil Jeremy]

New cone gets as far west as 79.0W.

[caneseddy]

Advisory is in:

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

There we go

[TheStormExpert]

Key Message #2 from the 5pm Discussion.

Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

[HurricaneBelle]

Wow...those TS wind probabilities I quoted from the 11AM advisory that jumped into the high 30s and 40s are now 50s-60s for the eastern side of FL:

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 29(42) 8(50)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 7(37)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 26(42) 6(48)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 28(53) 6(59)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 3(26)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 27(52) 7(59)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 3(26)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 26(60) 4(64)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 3(29)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 19(61) 3(64)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 2(32)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 16(59) 2(61)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 1(30)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 14(54) 2(56)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 2(27)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)

[tropicwatch]

[quote="Evil Jeremy"]Advisory is in:

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.[/quote}

I haven't seen the new graphic yet.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Advisory is in:

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.[/quote}

I haven't seen the new graphic yet.

Here it is:

 https://twitter.com/WxRobb/status/783043129809272832

[gatorcane]

Advisory is in:

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.[/quote}

I haven't seen the new graphic yet.

Here it is:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

That's the 2pm not 5pm cone, I assume it will get updated very soon.