ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5361 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:17 pm

sma10 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.
amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days out


Hail King Aussie?

Nah....


i guarantee you we will be looking at it for the next one
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5362 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:29 pm

18Z GFS running

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5363 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:30 pm

Already looks like slightly more ridging on the 18Z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5364 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:33 pm

Appears to be more riding than the previous run which had more than the previous run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5365 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:34 pm

Trend of 4 runs, latest is 18h

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5366 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:34 pm

18Z GFS is almost identical to the 12z @ 24 hours
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5367 Postby caneman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:34 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The mean of the 12z Euro Ensembles shifts east.

Image


Im not seeing much if any shift on that from this morning.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5368 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:35 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5369 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:37 pm

out through 36 hours, still see slightly more ridging on the 18Z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5370 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:38 pm

Ridge is slightly further west in GFS @36hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5371 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:40 pm

Unfortunately, ridging is building on the GFS 18Z. Real bad signs for Florida and SE U.S.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5372 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:42 pm

Ridging seems the same or close to it to me. Am I missing something?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5373 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:43 pm

very slightly west out through 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5374 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:43 pm

4 run trend

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5375 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:44 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Ridging seems the same or close to it to me. Am I missing something?

No. Only thing it MIGHT mean is a slight shift west. But it is slightly stronger. Slightly.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5376 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:44 pm

:uarrow: you can see the west trend there....not good.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5377 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:45 pm

Oh man, a bit SW of 12z position and ridging is obviously stronger out to 54 hours...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5378 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:45 pm

Out through 54 hours, 18Z is now more noticeably west than the 12Z though slightly west.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5379 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:45 pm

Ridge continues to be just a little stronger.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5380 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:46 pm

@54 hrs GFS further West by about 50 miles or so.
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