ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4961 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:40 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:I have an incredibly sick feeling watching Matthew approach Haiti. It is just like Patricia, when I woke up and heard it'd bombed out at 215 miles an hour. I almost cried.


Looks to be pretty bad. The last time a Category 4 hurricane made landfall on Haiti was Hurricane Cleo in 1964.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4962 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:42 pm

starting to leave a region of mid level shear that was affecting it earlier this evening
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4963 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:43 pm

sponger wrote:Any one remember these fun times? Hurricane Frances 2004

Florida Power and Light reported power outages occurred to 659,000 customer in Palm Beach, 590,000 in Broward, 423,000 in Miami-Dade, 39,200 in Collier, 2,500 in Hendry and 1,700 in Collier. An estimated 17,000 persons sought refuge in public shelters in Palm Beach County and nearly 7,000 in Broward County.


I was chasing and measured near 13 hours of sustained hurricane force winds in brevard county due the track of Frances. it did a toll for sure.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4964 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:44 pm

GFS about to trend a good bit east looks like.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4965 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:44 pm

will storm2k break Hermine discussion many page?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4966 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:45 pm

Exalt wrote:Is this going through an ERC or is this just effects from being close to land? The eye is looking jumbled and like it's caving after having shrunk again, almost like a new eyewall is forming. I'd expect a new (likely bigger) eye after landfall and reintensification, yet it looks like something is happening prior.

could be an ERC but hard to tell the last one barely even showed up on the recon data. the ability of this to maintain such pressure and winds is pretty amazing without any clear ERC. definitely will be a good case study for me and well.. many people.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4967 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:45 pm

we need weakness happen soon pull high to east
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4968 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:46 pm

SeGaBob wrote:GFS about to trend a good bit east looks like.


east see no signs it only faster by about 3 hours.. ridging still well inplace.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4969 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:47 pm

SeGaBob wrote:GFS about to trend a good bit east looks like.

Nope, just a hair north. Try again next time Mr. Bermuda :wink:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4970 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:47 pm

SeGaBob wrote:GFS about to trend a good bit east looks like.


It's a bit north of the 18z run, but not by much, and I don't think it's really more east or west of that earlier run... yet. Ridge stronger this time though, like it has been every run today.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4971 Postby Exalt » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Exalt wrote:Is this going through an ERC or is this just effects from being close to land? The eye is looking jumbled and like it's caving after having shrunk again, almost like a new eyewall is forming. I'd expect a new (likely bigger) eye after landfall and reintensification, yet it looks like something is happening prior.

could be an ERC but hard to tell the last one barely even showed up on the recon data. the ability of this to maintain such pressure and winds is pretty amazing without any clear ERC. definitely will be a good case study for me and well.. many people.


Last one barely showed up since the core was so compact it barely made a difference, the only thing that happened was the CDO expanded. Would be a good thing for Haiti at least if it is happening, not for the United States though.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4972 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:49 pm

Floridagal wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:I have family near Cooper City, in Broward. They are pretty far inland, what should they do to prepare?


The obvious things-food, water, gas, batteries, flashlight, candles. A weather radio. Power outages can happen fairly quickly even inland as trees go down. Tornadoes are a very real possibility...you will want to monitor this. I make sure my yard is free of anything that can blow around or away. A manual can opener-learned that lesson the hard way after Charley. People are going to go through far, far worse, but I was without power for 9 days after Charley. It is unpleasant to say the least. Have the basic necessities and you'll adapt.


Don't forget cell phone, extra battery or power source, cash (ATM's will be down if no power), and gather passports ID's & important papers which can be kept dry in garbage bags. If your family lives in a trailer they should not stay if there's any risk of gusts to hurricane force.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4973 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:49 pm

heading right at the lake region...if euro stays west then we cant expect any more help
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4974 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:GFS about to trend a good bit east looks like.


east see no signs it only faster by about 3 hours.. ridging still well inplace.

I'll take your word for it :)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4975 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:51 pm

SeGaBob wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:GFS about to trend a good bit east looks like.


east see no signs it only faster by about 3 hours.. ridging still well inplace.

I'll take your word for it :)


still going to come within 50 miles of florida. no real big change in thinking. the ensemble members will give a better idea.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4976 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:53 pm

Latest Recon data, combined with earlier flight level winds, support an intensity of 130 kt now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4977 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:53 pm

so similar to david in terms of track after hati..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4978 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:56 pm

If that eye pops out again before landfall in Haiti...oh boy...

Hopefully the collapsing eye is a sign of some weakening.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4979 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:56 pm

Meanwhile in the models thread, the GFS has its closest approach to the Florida coast yet.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4980 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:56 pm

I have to say this but no one wants to see a sub 930 hurricane go into the kennedy space center or anywhere for that matter
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