ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post the 0z Navgem??


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[AdamFirst]

Can somebody post the 0z Navgem??


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Not available yet through Tropical Tidbits

[northjaxpro]

Well, Matthew is literally just about at the coast just east of Jacksonville Beach at 90 hours with the eyewall within 50-70 miles of the coast..

A couple things. 1. You guys in J'ville have to get a piece of this one way or the other. 2016 demands it. 2. You're completely right. 50 miles could be the difference between high waves and beach erosion and devastation. I know you're on it northjax

You know Steve it just seems to be our turn this year dealing with tropical cyclones. Matthew looks to be the fourth tropical cyclone to impact Jacksonville and Northeast FL. Maybe that is why I had very bad vibes of this current cyclone since he was a pouch.

And to think my power went out iwhen Julia came right over my locale. Now I could be dealing with something I potentially numetous times worse of what Julia and even Colin bought here.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Don't know what we can expect down here in Monroe and Dade County, but you guys to the north be careful

[Blown Away]

My gut says the Euro going to throw a big wrench in the current thinking...

Ok I won't reference climatology, but many times we have seen this skirt the entire SE CONUS coast track modeled/forecasted... Seems a track into Florida then up the spine into the inland mid Atlantic states dropping a ton of rainfall OR the track will begin moving offshore and a close recurve through the Bahamas...

[WeatherEmperor]

Don't know what we can expect down here in Monroe and Dade County, but you guys to the north be careful

Hey Im in Broward. I believe at least TS conditions for us. Any further west shifts and wr may see some hurricane gusts


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[Steve]

Yeah. It is. We got 2002 and 2005. It's funny how that all works out. It could be 10, 25, 50 or 100 years between impacts, then conditions are just right for an escape out for tropical heat and it's overhead.

For now,Canadian is a little stronger than GFS at low res and in a pretty similar place in the Bahamas as the GFS at 36 hours. No NW/WNW turn yet, but that's also going to be ominous once those hours load.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is further South through 30 hours. Just north of Eastern Cuba. FWIW it made landfall on the extreme western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti as well as the extreme eastern tip of Cuba. About the most land it could avoid and escape the Caribbean.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like the hwrf is coming In slower and further west.

[Bocadude85]

Don't know what we can expect down here in Monroe and Dade County, but you guys to the north be careful

Hey Im in Broward. I believe at least TS conditions for us. Any further west shifts and wr may see some hurricane gusts


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The models are maybe 50-75 miles offshore broward county..well within the margin of track error at 72 hours, I'd say if the models stay where they are then plan on tropical storm force winds with the possibility of hurricane force winds and the possibility of the center moving onshore anywhere from Miami to Cape Canaveral.

[Patricia]

When is the next Euro run due to come out?

[SFLcane]

Hurricane watch in am and warning in afternoon

[SunnyThoughts]

When is the next Euro run due to come out?

Should start rolling in about half an hour ...I think.

[Evil Jeremy]

When is the next Euro run due to come out?

Will start running in 50 minutes.

[Steve]

Canadian looks to stay slightly offshore of Florida and then hit around the SC/NC border with bad impacts on shore up through the Delmarva Peninsula and again in RI/MA and Maine after that. Canadian runs are known to swing east sometimes before joining the consensus. If so, I hope the consensus shifts massively East in the next day or two.

[SouthernBreeze]

Euro initializes @ 1:45 AM EST

[Miami Storm Tracker]

other than the old Nogaps ( NAVGEM ) run of earlier today I think that was the only one showing a possible dade county land fall.

[CourierPR]

Hurricane watch in am and warning in afternoon

Is this your opinion or do you have inside info?

[Blinhart]

Hurricane watch in am and warning in afternoon

Is this your opinion or do you have inside info?

It only makes sense to have the Hurricane Watches in the morning and warnings in either the afternoon or the latest tomorrow night.

[AdamFirst]

HWRF still on the eastern flank of the model group, nearly identical to its 18z run (core over/just barely on the east side of Abaco)