ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

I'll say this much about the intensity forecast....unless Matthew veers enough to the east or west thus severely raking the storm through the mountains, than I fully expect intensity to rapidly spin back to at least a Cat 4 'Cane again

Yep...not buying low end category 3 in the Bahamas

Ideal conditions after Cuba both in terms of shear and water temperature...this is a powder keg

[SouthernBreeze]

Listening to Bahamas radio their emergency management director was telling people to take a ladder in their house so they can go up into attic if water rises. She also warned them to take something up there to protect themselves from snakes. Snakes can be a problem when water rises, no doubt!

[chaser1]

Does anyone expect watches to go up later this morning?

Our local forecasts are already calling for possible hurricane conditions so thats about as good as a hurricane watch to me since that is where i get my weather info.

Gov Scott issued a state of emergency for every Florida county already. It looks like people are really starting to take this serious.

I'm thinking Tropical Storm Watches Watches will go in effect for Upper Florida Keys, and Hurricane Watches for Miami-Dade north to Martin or St. Lucie counties by 9:00a.m . Watches for Counties further north will be issued later tomm. night and into Wed. a.m.[/quote

You are probably right in the order in which how NHC woll issue those watches chaser1.

So crazy to imagine the possibility of Hurricane conditions from Broward County all the way up to you in the Jax area! Looking at the GFS total precip charts, it's rather odd how little total rainfall is expected throughout central florida for all points west of the Atlantic coast. I believe under 2 1/2". Granted nearly all Florida likely remaining on the storms dryer west side, that just seemed oddly low.

[bahamaswx]

Listening to Bahamas radio their emergency management director was telling people to take a ladder in their house so they can go up into attic if water rises. She also warned them to take something up there to protect themselves from snakes. Snakes can be a problem when water rises, no doubt!

I hope she advised that this protection device be an axe so one can cut their way out of the attic if necessary...

[northjaxpro]

Tonight is taking me back to the old days of of 2004 when tracking Frances and Jeanne. Man those days were something else. Stayiing up late into the wee hours of the morning, awaiting the model runs. Well tonight is giving me the same feeling with Matthew breathing down our necks here along the Florida East Coast and SE U.S. Coast.

Awaiting EURO run at 1:45 a.m. , about 15 minutes from now.

[ozonepete]

Matthew is clearly expanding to a really large size. Even if it doesn't landfall at the Florida coast it's becoming more likely that it will have some strong wind and wave effects there. I'd be paying really close attention.

[Blinhart]

I will not be surprised if this is a Cat. 5 by the time it makes landfall on Haiti and/or Cuba. The little bit of land interaction really shouldn't do much to weaken him. Like I have been saying I would not be surprised if this system expands the TS wind field from 185 miles to something closer to 300 miles by the time it is done with Cuba and Hispanolia. We all know that mountains like this can cause the system to expand in size.

[chaser1]

More applicable in the model thread, but does anyone know why it seems that many models just cannot be initiated showing the current and correct baro pressure? Seems odd. For that matter, I tried clicking on every darn link for Surface SLP as each new model roles out yet the GFS is seemingly only showing a hurricane approaching Florida in the 986mb range (approx); meanwhile others seem to read values reflecting far closer to present surface pressures.

[northjaxpro]

Matthew is clearly expanding to a really large size. Even if it doesn't landfall at the Florida coast it's becoming more likely that it will have some strong wind and wave effects there. I'd be paying really close attention.

Hey oxonepete. Tomorrow looks to be a very hectic day for me and many others preparing for the arrival.of Matthew. It almist feels surreal to see a powerful major hurricane to be literally right at my doorstep .

[northjaxpro]

Matthew is clearly expanding to a really large size. Even if it doesn't landfall at the Florida coast it's becoming more likely that it will have some strong wind and wave effects there. I'd be paying really close attention.

Hey oxonepete. Tomorrow looks to be a very hectic day for me and many others preparing for the arrival.of Matthew. It almost feels surreal to see a powerful major hurricane to be literally right at my doorstep .

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing EURO goes east here in a few minutes...not that I have a good track record so far.

[TJRE]

Matthew is clearly expanding to a really large size. Even if it doesn't landfall at the Florida coast it's becoming more likely that it will have some strong wind and wave effects there. I'd be paying really close attention.

Pete
thanks again for all your tutoring in the past
T from jersey

[ronyan]

I'm guessing EURO goes east here in a few minutes...not that I have a good track record so far.

Are you sure you aren't reverse -removed- it to stay away from you?

[Alyono]

More applicable in the model thread, but does anyone know why it seems that many models just cannot be initiated showing the current and correct baro pressure? Seems odd. For that matter, I tried clicking on every darn link for Surface SLP as each new model roles out yet the GFS is seemingly only showing a hurricane approaching Florida in the 986mb range (approx); meanwhile others seem to read values reflecting far closer to present surface pressures.

you're looking at the wrong option. You need to look at surface pressure to see the real MU pressure

[CourierPR]

I'm guessing EURO goes east here in a few minutes...not that I have a good track record so far.

On what evidence are you basing your opinion?

[Aric Dunn]

Tonight is taking me back to the old days of of 2004 when tracking Frances and Jeanne. Man those days were something else. Stayiing up late into the wee hours of the morning, awaiting the model runs. Well tonight is giving me the same feeling with Matthew breathing down our necks here along the Florida East Coast and SE U.S. Coast.

Awaiting EURO run at 1:45 a.m. , about 15 minutes from now.

takes me even further back to our surfing days.. competing watching the models..

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing EURO goes east here in a few minutes...not that I have a good track record so far.

On what evidence are you basing your opinion?

Just a guess more than anything.

[AdamFirst]

EURO is rolling...here we go

[chaser1]

More applicable in the model thread, but does anyone know why it seems that many models just cannot be initiated showing the current and correct baro pressure? Seems odd. For that matter, I tried clicking on every darn link for Surface SLP as each new model roles out yet the GFS is seemingly only showing a hurricane approaching Florida in the 986mb range (approx); meanwhile others seem to read values reflecting far closer to present surface pressures.

you're looking at the wrong option. You need to look at surface pressure to see the real MU pressure

Well yeah, that would seem to be the obvious choice. There is not a button that I havn't clicked. Starting to wonder if "cell phone mode" rather then desktop, might be eliminating some button links that I'm just not seeing?

[SouthFLTropics]

Tonight is taking me back to the old days of of 2004 when tracking Frances and Jeanne. Man those days were something else. Stayiing up late into the wee hours of the morning, awaiting the model runs. Well tonight is giving me the same feeling with Matthew breathing down our necks here along the Florida East Coast and SE U.S. Coast.

Awaiting EURO run at 1:45 a.m. , about 15 minutes from now.

I remember those days all too well. Tough times but I have fond memories of past discussions on S2K.