ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

:uarrow: Hmm, or is that an oversimplification? Or is it that there are a lot of mountains in front of this eyewall?

Just look at what Taiwan does to perfectly round typhoon eyes, before they even hit.

[Blinhart]

Next full advisory, the minimum that will be announce will be TS Watches for the entire East Coast of Florida and South Ga., some areas might TS warnings, Hurricane Watches and who knows Hurricane Warnings. This will be a very interesting advisory. Lake O might even be put on TS Watch with small craft advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Hmm, or is that an oversimplification? Or is it that there are a lot of mountains in front of this eyewall?

is that not the same statement ? the terrain is being a "object in the stream"

[wzrgirl1]

Good Morning all. Unable to sleep thinking about Matt. Does it look as if South Florida will be under the gun at this point? How can I find out about school closures, etc/

[northjaxpro]

Good Morning all. Unable to sleep thinking about Matt. Does it look as if South Florida will be under the gun at this point? How can I find out about school closures, etc/

Tune in your early morning local news outlets. There will be wall to wall coverage I 100 percent can guarantee you on that!!

[wzrgirl1]

Yes my problem is I like to know before everyone else. Lol. Thanks and I anticipate we will have many more late nights ahead. Good luck to all.

[chaser1]

Good Morning all. Unable to sleep thinking about Matt. Does it look as if South Florida will be under the gun at this point? How can I find out about school closures, etc/

Tune in your early morning local news outlets. There will be wall to wall coverage I 100 percent can guarantee you on that!!

Though I'd guess that a good many schools and Universities at least in counties along the Fl. east coast, will likely be closed on Thurs. and Fri. Depending on whether models further strengthen the ridge further and if the official track takes Matthew right along the Florida coastline from near Jupiter to Jax, than I'd guess schools up here in Orlando may well be closed Thurs. & Fri. too.

[chaser1]

Yes my problem is I like to know before everyone else. Lol. Thanks and I anticipate we will have many more late nights ahead. Good luck to all.

Back atcha'

[southerngreen]

Someone mentioned earlier about the length of time this will be affecting Fla and another about tornados- with the east side being the stronger side, IF it rakes the east coast w/o making landfall, how concerned should folks in west central Fla be about the threat of tornados?

[NDG]

[NDG]

Someone mentioned earlier about the length of time this will be affecting Fla and another about tornados- with the east side being the stronger side, IF it rakes the east coast w/o making landfall, how concerned should folks in west central Fla be about the threat of tornados?

I don't think the west coast of FL will have much of a threat for tornadoes if any, the way Matthew will be tracking maybe the immediate east coast of FL will have the threat for tornadoes at best as they usually occur on the northern and eastern quadrant of hurricanes.

[NDG]

I feel bad for the Province of Guantanamo in Cuba, where I was born, it has probably been since the 60s last time they were directly hit with a hurricane this strong if not longer, the good news is that it appears that the eye will make landfall to the east of the city where most of the population is. But a small river flows through the city originating from the Mountains and I can see it could very well overflow its banks from all the heavy rains that will be falling by the Mountains, could be catastrophic. There are many old houses and buildings that could collapse. Baracoa is another town that could see some pretty good damage out of this.

[AtlanticWind]

It is amazing how long ,starting earlier today, this system is likely to be affecting land areas
Maybe a week or more.

[Blinhart]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshe ... 84ea743926

I find it interesting that forbes did an article about this system, you know that this is a very unique system.

[bob rulz]

Is recon expected to make it into Matthew again before landfall in Haiti?

[AJC3]

Next full advisory, the minimum that will be announce will be TS Watches for the entire East Coast of Florida and South Ga., some areas might TS warnings, Hurricane Watches and who knows Hurricane Warnings. This will be a very interesting advisory. Lake O might even be put on TS Watch with small craft advisory.

Based on the current forecast, at most there will be watches for the SE coast of FL (probably Jupiter Inlet southward) at 5 AM. The onset of TS and hurricane force winds aren't forecast to reach the east central coast of Florida until about noon on Thursday. Since watches mean that TS or hurricane conditions are possible with 48 hours, 5 AM is a little too early.

The Hurricane Watches for the NW Bahamas may be upgraded to warnings at 5 AM, but I suspect a little later, more like 11 AM. (onset in 24-36 hours)

This is all contingent upon the track not being sped up significantly.

[NDG]

I would expect the NHC to keep shifting its track westward closer to the GFS and Euro models as it now lies to the right of both of these models even though the NHC track is right by the TVCN consensus model but the fact that both the GFS and Euro are the ones that have the best track record through 96 hrs they may give more weight on their tracks as the HWRF(purple track) continues to be a right outlier making the TVCN be to the right of the GFS and Euro.

[wzrgirl1]

Anticipating the 5:00 update to see if South Florida is under any type of watch.

[Hurrilurker]

Anticipating the 5:00 update to see if South Florida is under any type of watch.

I think it will be hard for them to justify not putting up at least a TS watch for Fl east coast at this point. Hurricane watch or warning they might hold off on because there's still uncertainty there. Problem is this rather dramatic northwestward swing that's being anticipated would not happen until after Matthew clears Cuba and gets into the Bahamas. But at that point it's kind of too late to be putting up warnings. They're going to have to make a call on it pretty soon even though they don't know how big that turn will be, which could make the difference between a direct strike to Florida, to just grazing the coast, to staying well offshore.

[Blinhart]

Well no watches or warnings for Florida yet, will be either at the 8 or 11 advisory that it will happen.