ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[meriland23]

NHC says it'll be a cat 1, maybe 2 by landfall due to impending SW shear.

[srva80]

12z hurricane plots shifted E a bit

I wasn't aware the 12z's had run today yet...

[weathaguyry]

12z hurricane plots shifted E a bit

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they stayed about the same, also I think they shifted a tick west, closer to Mid-Atlantic/LI

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/783289482564952064

[AutoPenalti]

I think those probabilities are a bit aggressive. NHC says 13% chance in Miami, 17% in Fort Lauderdale, and 21% in West Palm Beach. It was encouraging to see the 06Z GFS no longer trend westward. Perhaps we have reached some sort of model convergence. Regardless, residents in FL should remain vigilant.

Before its all said and done just rainy blustery here in dade and broward. Maybe if wind field expands but as off right now nothing more then what we deal with mon-sun with gusty winds with severe wx. There is still plenty of time for south Florida to be out of the cone.

I honestly don't expect much more shifting maybe 10-30 miles right then back left. We are in the timeframe where you see less wild fluctuations like yesterday. I still think it is dangerously close. Remember how long it took Matt to start moving north and it even moved a little further west than progged. Any deviation like that I assume can make landfall in our area if it is that close.

10-30 miles means a lot for Broward County, lol. Someone mentioned that the ridge is stronger today, wouldn't be surprised if they shifted west at 11:30.

[stormlover2013]

going to be close close to Florida..........tricky forecast

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Oh boy what is the Bams doing with that loop??????????????????????????

[toad strangler]

12z hurricane plots shifted E a bit

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they stayed about the same, also I think they shifted a tick west, closer to Mid-Atlantic/LI

Shifted a tad E of FL... where Matthew approaches 1st.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sure how trusted/accurate this technique is, but it suggests FL still needs to pay very close attention to this system:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/783286304138199040

[SouthFLTropics]

We're definitely seeing a slight eastward trend in the short term modeling this morning. We need to see the 12z Euro before we start popping champagne on South Beach though. Also, does anyone know if these 06z and 12z models have updated dropsonde data from the G-IV? If they don't have the data that last nights 18z and 00z have then we could possibly expect a shift back later this afternoon. Some sounding data from Florida, the Bahamas, and Bermuda would be beneficial.

[toad strangler]

NHC says it'll be a cat 1, maybe 2 by landfall due to impending SW shear.

There is indeed shear awaiting Matthew in the Bahamas. Wish I could post the map but can't right now..

[SouthDadeFish]

We're definitely seeing a slight eastward trend in the short term modeling this morning. We need to see the 12z Euro before we start popping champagne on South Beach though. Also, does anyone know if these 06z and 12z models have updated dropsonde data from the G-IV? If they don't have the data that last nights 18z and 00z have then we could possibly expect a shift back later this afternoon. Some sounding data from Florida, the Bahamas, and Bermuda would be beneficial.

There's still millions of other observations assimilated into the models. The G-IV drops do help, but the models are still beneficial without them. Many NWS offices have been doing special balloon launches at 06 and 18Z to help with the model forecasts.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not sure how trusted/accurate this technique is, but it suggests FL still needs to pay very close attention to this system:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/783286304138199040

If this is accurate then this is definitely an alarm bell for Florida. We are in the Euro's wheelhouse timeframe right now. It has been deadly accurate at 3 days and under.

[HurrMark]

Forgive me if I am looking at the wrong models, but why are Floridians more optimistic this morning? The GFS has shown a 10 mile shift eastward, which is barely a blip. The Euro shifted westward again (very hard to say if there was a landfall due to the 24 hour increments...I would say yes, in SC somewhere). This is not a time to be complacent.

[chris_fit]

I'm not sure how trusted/accurate this technique is, but it suggests FL still needs to pay very close attention to this system:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/783286304138199040

If this is accurate then this is definitely an alarm bell for Florida. We are in the Euro's wheelhouse timeframe right now. It has been deadly accurate at 3 days and under.

Is that another term for the Euro Ensembles?

[ThetaE]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/783289482564952064

Looking at the 12z models, the loop he mentions seems to be possible only if Matthew were a very weak storm (supported by the BAMS).

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure how trusted/accurate this technique is, but it suggests FL still needs to pay very close attention to this system:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/7 ... 4138199040

If this is accurate then this is definitely an alarm bell for Florida. We are in the Euro's wheelhouse timeframe right now. It has been deadly accurate at 3 days and under.

Remember the UKMET is very close to making landfall in West Palm Beach (two runs in a row now) and NAVGEM shows landfall two consecutive runs

[AdamFirst]

Forgive me if I am looking at the wrong models, but why are Floridians more optimistic this morning?.

They shouldn't be. Maybe South Floridians will be spared possible hurricane conditions, but as far as I'm concerned this is still way too early to be flagging an all clear.

Though this cycle has repeated over the past 4-5 model run cycles - "oh, the new guidance has shifted east!!" but the globals and the new guidance comes in close to the coast, as did the runs before.

I can only put it to one thing - people are -removed- this away...but I won't dwell on this, this is a conversation for the main discussion thread.

[BensonTCwatcher]

BAM Models are not useful at those latitudes for steering i.e. outside the tropics.

[bg1]

Did the 6Z GFS really trend east or is it just simply showing a faster storm?