ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

deciding today whether to go down to Vero Beach and board up my mom's house.

she lives 2 blocks from the ocean on the barrier island.

not liking the current position of closest approach as that may put the strongest winds directly over her.

For what it's worth, the shutters will likely be going up at my house here in Port Saint Lucie.

[jdjaguar]

Thanks for your input. I'm leaning that way.

Gonna wait for the 11:30 GFS and the 1:45 euro..then head down there if they dont shift further east.

Normally it takes me 3.5 hours to get there, but if watches go up at 11 that may not be the case.
\
be safe in the coming days.

[hipshot]

Pretty high - not guaranteed chances, mind you, but even if the eye is 25-50 miles off shore central Florida it'll likely bring hurricane conditions or just below that to the coastline.

Ok, Thank you... I'm in Brevard County about 3 miles inland, watching this intently...

deciding today whether to go down to Vero Beach and board up my mom's house.

she lives 2 blocks from the ocean on the barrier island.

not liking the current position of closest approach as that may put the strongest winds directly over her.

If I were you I'd do it now, better yet bring her back with you. The track and strength of this storm is just too unpredictable.

[KBBOCA]

Good tweet showing movement of NHC cone over recent advisories...
 https://twitter.com/EricZerkel/status/783293971636293637

[DelrayMorris]

We live in Delray Beach (near West Palm Beach) and depending on the 12z model runs/NHC output, will likely put shutters up this afternoon.

I would be making plans to head to your mom's house, were I in your position.

[jdjaguar]

I plan on bringing her back with me

of course I live in Jax Beach, so that may be out of the frying pan into the fire, as they say!

but at least she will be with my family, and not alone.

[Arsynic]

Some pictures, videos, and tweets from those on the ground in Haiti:

 https://twitter.com/KarlJeanJeune/status/783269648523493377





 https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/783274815654420481



 https://twitter.com/YojaLeon/status/783273037231710208



 https://twitter.com/jgabrielfortune/status/783253772587954176




 https://twitter.com/Jacquiecharles/status/783232220139954176

Looks like old boy didn't disappoint. Prayers up, Haiti.

[JPmia]

If you look at google maps of the landfall location in haiti there are a few river valleys that have towns at the coast. The raging flooding and storm surges there will be very catastrophic. I bet we see the town of Les Anglais have a high death toll if folks didn't evacuate. Sad.

[tgenius]

We live in suburbs of Miami, and baring some major shifts not even sure I will bother closing my accordion shutters, it's probably going to just be 40ish mph winds and some rain, but if it shifts south, that is the beauty of the accordions, it's literally a 5 minute deal.

[Mouton]

Looking at the water vapor flow along with the upper level wind reports, what I see is a general west east run across the US. There is a significant blast of dry air coming into NW florida at the moment from the wnw.

Ahead of the dry air rush there seems to be a sw/ne flow which to me would indicate a move away from the florida pen. over the next day or so. In fact before land fall in SW Haiti, the storm was moving NNE.

With increased southern winds, forward motion should increase and IMO the overall motion influenced by the high shear should take the system more NNW than NW. Maybe this is a wishocast for me, but I don't see this system west of 79-80W before it moves to the NNE.

Personal note for us, the 80w is important because that is the number where we vacate inland!

Important: these are the observations of an extreme amateur with little formal training so I'd be listening to the NHC and especially to state emergency officials long before I relied on my 71yo rants.

[abajan]

So, are we in the clear here in the Wilmington, NC area?

It's too early to state that.

[HurricaneFrances04]

We live in Delray Beach (near West Palm Beach) and depending on the 12z model runs/NHC output, will likely put shutters up this afternoon.

I would be making plans to head to your mom's house, were I in your position.

This is my thinking as well.

I actually went ahead and put up the hardest shutters to do on my house yesterday, since I work all day today. Even though I'm off tomorrow, I expect to get called in, so that was a factor as well.

The rest of our shutters are the accordion type, which we got after Wilma in 05. Haven't ever needed them, but they are a much easier job to do.

[GCANE]

TS and / or Hurricane Watches likely to be issued 11AM for Florida

https://www.periscope.tv/NWSNHC/1PlJQeMvRMVJE

[AdamFirst]

We live in suburbs of Miami, and baring some major shifts not even sure I will bother closing my accordion shutters, it's probably going to just be 40ish mph winds and some rain, but if it shifts south, that is the beauty of the accordions, it's literally a 5 minute deal.

Don't have that luxury here - we have giant aluminum shutters we gotta lug out from the garage.

My old house in Homestead had PGT Winguard installed - no shutters needed

[artist]

That nne motion was depicted in the models and nhc path.

Looking at the water vapor flow along with the upper level wind reports, what I see is a general west east run across the US. There is a significant blast of dry air coming into NW florida at the moment from the wnw.

Ahead of the dry air rush there seems to be a sw/ne flow which to me would indicate a move away from the florida pen. over the next day or so. In fact before land fall in SW Haiti, the storm was moving NNE.

With increased southern winds, forward motion should increase and IMO the overall motion influenced by the high shear should take the system more NNW than NW. Maybe this is a wishocast for me, but I don't see this system west of 79-80W before it moves to the NNE.

Personal note for us, the 80w is important because that is the number where we vacate inland!

Important: these are the observations of an extreme amateur with little formal training so I'd be listening to the NHC and especially to state emergency officials long before I relied on my 71yo rants.

[Arsynic]

MIMIC:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

Seriously looks like all the mountains did was piss Matthew off. Looks like it finished an EWRC right before hitting land and is now loaded for bear for the Bahamas.

Walmarts and Publixes in the Charleston, SC area are being raided as I speak. Glad I started coming here and we have a jump on some things. We were actually scheduled to be in the upstate of SC on the weekend anyways so all I have to do is book a couple more days.

[Alyono]

Seeing some photos of minor flooding in Port Au Prince. No clue what is happening on the Tiburon Peninsula though

[Patrick99]

We live in suburbs of Miami, and baring some major shifts not even sure I will bother closing my accordion shutters, it's probably going to just be 40ish mph winds and some rain, but if it shifts south, that is the beauty of the accordions, it's literally a 5 minute deal.

Yeah. I want to see when, where, and to what extent this left turn happens. If it's sharper.....all bets are off for all of us in South Florida. If it's that gentle NNW curve I see on the current track, that will likely do very little.

[gatorcane]

I see some comments that seems to suggest Florida might be in the clear here. Folks the ECMWF HP cluster has 100% of member making landfall in Florida as a CAT 2 or 3 (see models page) with tracks into SE Florida (Palm Beach County). The UKMET is barely offshore West Palm Beach. Those are two of the best models in the world showing these tracks. Also, don't focus on the center so much as the fact that big impacts will be felt far away from the center as the windfield could expand as it moves out of the Caribbean.

[MaineWeatherNut]

VMax on the MIMIC increased to 125kts just before landfall... Was down a single knot to 124 as it was headed back out over water... Not much weakening at all.