ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

OR here

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[Bocadude85]

When it comes to watches, here is how I would do it at 11 am:

Hurricane Watch - Card Sound Bridge to Fernandina Beach, including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Watch - South of Card Sound Bridge (i.e. Florida Keys), Florida Bay, west coast south of Yankeetown

(Will likely be extended farther north later)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I would be very surprised to see a hurricane watch that far south. Most like tropical storm watch up to Deerfield Beach with a Hurricane Watch northward from there.

[sponger]

Plenty of time to ramp up prior to Cuba. I hear a lot about weakening in the Bahamas, but that shear comes in as in approaches North Florida, and is responsible for the expected turn to the NE. I would not prepare expecting any help from a weakening storm. This could be a strong three or four on approach. Plan accordingly.

[HurricaneEric]

OR here

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Looks to be making that NW turn, no?

[SootyTern]

Pretty high - not guaranteed chances, mind you, but even if the eye is 25-50 miles off shore central Florida it'll likely bring hurricane conditions or just below that to the coastline.

Ok, Thank you... I'm in Brevard County about 3 miles inland, watching this intently...

deciding today whether to go down to Vero Beach and board up my mom's house.

she lives 2 blocks from the ocean on the barrier island.

not liking the current position of closest approach as that may put the strongest winds directly over her.

Do it. You will need to have time later to make your own home and family safe. You will be glad you have your mom safe already by then.

[NDG]

I guess the recon will tell what kind of condition the LLC is, but I'm sure it will not take much to get going again with such a stacked circulation.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783308958115266561

[Bocadude85]

Looks like a tropical storm watch up for the Florida Keys.

..A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER/MIDDLE KEYS...

GMZ031-032-042-043-052-053-072-073-042230-
/O.NEW.KKEY.TR.A.1014.161004T1418Z-000000T0000Z/
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE KEYS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=tropical%20storm%20watch

[p1nheadlarry]

Perfect Upper-Level Conditions for Reintensification.

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/1jqer6.gif[/ig]

[img]http://i65.tinypic.com/2afg29e.png[/mg]

Thats what you call creating its own environment.

This is what I worry about. I don't expect Matthew to be anywhere as intense as it has been in the Caribbean or what it could be in the Bahamas. I also don't know how quickly shear from the trough and possibly drier continental air could weaken it; Matthew has scoffed at the notion its entire life. Remember Irene maxed out at 100 kts in the Bahamas, and though larger, dropped just 25 kts before landfalling in the OBX.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

Zoomed in
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[SapphireSea]

I saw that and was shocked, hearing it come from him. I respect him, but that was not explained properly at all. I turned it off.

Watching Mark Sudduth's latest update.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97PKLLzDz7M

Appreciate all his work, but think he's saying something very dangerous in an attempt to get people to not focus on the forecast points and to help people understand the cone. He basically said "you can think of it as any area in the cone might get impacts, the closer to "the dot" (the center) probably worse impacts"

WRONG!!!! The cone does not have anything to do with the windfield or rain rates or surge / tides. As the NHC displays on all the graphics, impacts can be felt outside the cone!!!

I know he knows this and that he's just trying to give people a general idea that ALL in the cone should prepare, but still, this oversimplification is quite dangerous.

I don't think he is using the cone operationally. Once again I can't speak for him or anyone, but likely trying to explain and downplay hype that will occur as soon as watches setup in FL.

I do believe however it's a bit misleading because one can never guess the windfield, but the odds of dangerous winds 50kt+ are still quite low over land for most of Florida if one looks at this scientifically and objectively. I believe we need to drive home the fact the greatest risk will be precipitation based flooding and the risk of weak tree damage and injury which should never be downplayed as this is high risk even in afternoon thunderstorms.

Until NHC does move the predicted track over the peninsula it may be irresponsible to sound the major hurricane wind alarm anywhere . The long term effects will surely outweigh the short term benefit. Needless to say it's probably a good idea to stay indoors until the bad weather passes completely. This is true even on very stormy days. Think with our heads.

[GCANE]

Hurricane Matthew - Situation Report No. 1, as of 3 October 2016 – (1700 hours EST)

United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) teams have arrived in Jamaica and Haiti and are supporting national efforts.

The National Emergency Operations Centres (COE) are active in countries including Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. They remain on alert.

300,000 People in Haiti to be immediately assisted. Half of the population is expected to be affected.

Source: Directorate of Civil Protection

601,241 People in shelters (Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Cuba)

340,000 People in 1,300 emergency shelters in Haiti

251,795 People in some 218 shelters in Cuba, most of them with families or friends

900 People in shelters in Jamaica

73,000 People affected in Colombia

http://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/hurri ... -hours-est

[windnrain]

Latest MIMIC - Definitely North movement.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the core is back over water.

[jlauderdal]

the LLC may be having trouble crossing the mountains. Seems like it is getting hung up

nothg would surprise as it works its way through the windward passage...weakening, bouncing around, course changes, stalling...seen it all before

[gatorcane]

OR here

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Looks to be making that NW turn, no?

Yes appears to it might be on more of a NNW heading looking at the floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[1900hurricane]

The core has taken at least a small hit from landfall. Waiting on the Metop passes and more recon to evaluate further.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783194601473527808

[Soonercane]

the LLC may be having trouble crossing the mountains. Seems like it is getting hung up

nothg would surprise as it works its way through the windward passage...weakening, bouncing around, course changes, stalling...seen it all before

Agreed, most storms get shredded pretty good by Eastern Cuba, while it could restrengthen in the bahamas I am not too concerned about the US at this moment due to the weakening of the storm, Haiti on the other hand is another story entirely... I am worried there will be unfortunate news coming out of there shortly.

[SouthDadeFish]

Extrapolated pressure up to around 952 mb.