ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro 5 run 0z trend. I'm not sure what models have trended east, maybe the GFS by a few miles, but most everything is still going west. DO me a favor, jsut stop with the amateur forecasts, especially here. I'm deleting them as soon as I see them.

I get the sick feeling that based on to 00z Ensembles we will see this trend continue.

[LarryWx]

Based on 12Z NAM hour 42, I think he will end up
slightly E of 6Z run.

[drezee]

Future Nicole is shifting Matthew East on the 12z NAM...we should be rooting for NICOLE...she could break the ridge enough to mostly spare FL...I would wait on the European and GFS

[AdamFirst]

98L/Nicole is not strong enough to break down this ridge or influence the track in any way.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ridging weaker on the NAM so far. Still ends up in the same spot as the last run at hour 57.

Look here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100412&fh=57&xpos=0&ypos=200

[Alyono]

slightly weaker ridging now after 48 hours

[Blown Away]

12z Nam almost same as 06z... 98L a bit weaker than 06z at 66 hours..

[Blown Away]

12z NAM more NW at 78 hours than 06z...

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM would miss CONUS landfall with this set up correct METS?

Look Here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100412&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=200

[Alyono]

NAM would miss CONUS landfall with this set up correct METS?

Look Here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100412&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=200

yes, as it has the ridge weaker, and the trough faster. Trough not sharp enough to draw it into New England

[tolakram]

12Z GFS starts at 11:25 EDT
12Z Euro at 1:45 EDT

Please keep discussion to a minimum in this thread unless it's specifically related to a model run. Off topic posts are deleted.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[chaser1]

Based on 12Z NAM hour 42, I think he will end up
slightly E of 6Z run.

As many have remarked, I agree that the 12Z appears to indicate that either Matthew might have moved just north enough, the ridge itself delayed enough, or perhaps the SW edge of the ridge just degraded enough, to appear for 500mb winds in the N. Bahamas (24-48 hr.) to be veering a bit less northwesterly. I believe this will bear out in the 12Z GFS run here shortly. If it were to verify, would lesson the threat to at least the S. portions of Florida.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS starts at 11:25 EDT
12Z Euro at 1:45 EDT

Please keep discussion to a minimum in this thread unless it's specifically related to a model run. Off topic posts are deleted.

Thanks for your cooperation.

(appologies )

[ConvergenceZone]

All a weaker ridge means is that it will landfall in the Carolinas as opposed to Florida.

[tarheelprogrammer]

All a weaker ridge means is that it will landfall in the Carolinas as opposed to Florida.

At hour 84 of the NAM it looks like it is heading away from the Carolinas. That run of the NAM would be OTS. Am I wrong METS?

[lando]

All a weaker ridge means is that it will landfall in the Carolinas as opposed to Florida.

At hour 84 of the NAM it looks like it is heading away from the Carolinas. That run of the NAM would be OTS. Am I wrong METS?

sir, please look in previous pages, you already asked this and it was answered... while techincally yes, NAM isnt for track, its for atmosphere

[ronjon]

11 am NHC track forecast on the eastern side of guidance. Part of it may have to do with no intermediate forecast point between 48 and 72 hrs.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

[tolakram]

12Z GFS running

[Vdogg]

Based on (possible Nicole) weakening the ridge, the trough to the east and shear near the Bahamas, I think it would be highly likely that Matthew could potentially be a complete recurve and miss the CONUS altogether. Look at the wide Atlantic WV loop. It's pretty obvious to me. In my opinion, I wouldn't be surprised to see big east shift on the next advisory.
Again, my opinion.

Nicole has formed, but NHC expects it to weaken by tomorrow due to high shear. Do not expect Nicole to be much of a factor.

[windnrain]

No TS Nicole in the initialization?