ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Charlotte-based @wxbrad has been doing some SLOSH modelling:

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/783312476280586240

[1900hurricane]

is the SW shear gonna shred it to a cat 1 like NHC predicts by landfall?

The National Hurricane Center still has a 90 kt storm just after landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[chaser1]

Hi all, first time poster. I'm clueless when it comes to hurricane tracking but this storm definitely has my attention. I live 5 blocks from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach, never worried much about hurricanes as we usually only get outer effects due to the recessed nature of our coastline. But, this time we may not be so lucky. Question for those with more hurricane experience I live in a concrete block home built in the 50's and do not currently have any type of shutters for my windows. Is the track of this storm dire enough for Jacksonville Beach that I should consider making a Home Depot run to buy plywood & attempt to board up?

You don't want to go later and find out they ran out.
You can always save it for the next time.

GCANE is right. May not hit you and perhaps stay 40 miles off shore. Still likely close enough to get some hurricane force gusts. It only takes one or two broken windows to cause an awful lot of interior damage. On the flip side, this is just one part of the luxury of "home ownership". You've been lucky to not have really needed to go to that added expense of buying shutters, but chances are... this is your biggest investment. Regardless whether you evacuate in advance of future landfall warnings due to the threat of storm surge, or wait it out. You have the luxury of deciding just a few hours before a storm hits whether or not you want to drive 30 miles west and stay with Aunt Molly. Your house cant very well get up and move out of harms way though.

[OntarioEggplant]

Hi all, first time poster. I'm clueless when it comes to hurricane tracking but this storm definitely has my attention. I live 5 blocks from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach, never worried much about hurricanes as we usually only get outer effects due to the recessed nature of our coastline. But, this time we may not be so lucky. Question for those with more hurricane experience I live in a concrete block home built in the 50's and do not currently have any type of shutters for my windows. Is the track of this storm dire enough for Jacksonville Beach that I should consider making a Home Depot run to buy plywood & attempt to board up?

Yes. You need to be preparing for major hurricane conditions at your location. From my experience, concrete block structures can withstand surges pretty well, but you need to protect your windows. I'd also get sandbags to try to block entry points from water.

[KBBOCA]

Here's link to @wxbrad's vlog commentary about Hurricane preps for those on the Carolina coast:

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/783309297866321920

[karenfromheaven]

Hi all, first time poster. I'm clueless when it comes to hurricane tracking but this storm definitely has my attention. I live 5 blocks from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach, never worried much about hurricanes as we usually only get outer effects due to the recessed nature of our coastline. But, this time we may not be so lucky. Question for those with more hurricane experience I live in a concrete block home built in the 50's and do not currently have any type of shutters for my windows. Is the track of this storm dire enough for Jacksonville Beach that I should consider making a Home Depot run to buy plywood & attempt to board up?

You don't want to go later and find out they ran out.
You can always save it for the next time.

A house that old may not have "hurricane clips" installed, which are steel clips nailed to the roof rafters to tie them securely to the walls. They keep the roof from being picked up whole and lifted off the house. A lot of houses failed in this way during hurricane Andrew, and the building codes in FL were changed afterwards to require those clips. Boarding your windows will help keep the wind out of your house so it won't grab hold of your roof from inside.

[chaser1]

is the SW shear gonna shred it to a cat 1 like NHC predicts by landfall?

The National Hurricane Center still has a 90 kt storm just after landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Plus, shear is particularly hard to forecast. With the predominant ridging over the Southeast CONUS and what I believe to be a deepening hurricane while still east of Florida, I'd hedge toward thinking this intensity forecast is a bit conservative. Change that, maybe a "big bit" conservative.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd hedge toward thinking this intensity forecast is a bit conservative. Change that, maybe a "big bit" conservative.

NHC has been conservative with the intensity forecast for all of Matthew's life.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hopefully this storm can lose and 5-7 MB till it clears Cuba, its over warm water now but much of the system will be effected by the mountains.

[jdjaguar]

Hi all, first time poster. I'm clueless when it comes to hurricane tracking but this storm definitely has my attention. I live 5 blocks from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach, never worried much about hurricanes as we usually only get outer effects due to the recessed nature of our coastline. But, this time we may not be so lucky. Question for those with more hurricane experience I live in a concrete block home built in the 50's and do not currently have any type of shutters for my windows. Is the track of this storm dire enough for Jacksonville Beach that I should consider making a Home Depot run to buy plywood & attempt to board up?

You don't want to go later and find out they ran out.
You can always save it for the next time.

GCANE is right. May not hit you and perhaps stay 40 miles off shore. Still likely close enough to get some hurricane force gusts. It only takes one or two broken windows to cause an awful lot of interior damage. On the flip side, this is just one part of the luxury of "home ownership". You've been lucky to not have really needed to go to that added expense of buying shutters, but chances are... this is your biggest investment. Regardless whether you evacuate in advance of future landfall warnings due to the threat of storm surge, or wait it out. You have the luxury of deciding just a few hours before a storm hits whether or not you want to drive 30 miles west and stay with Aunt Molly. Your house cant very well get up and move out of harms way though.

Having attempted to evacuate during Hurricane Floyd, you better leave way ahead of a couple hours before a projected hit, cause you're not gonna get too far if you dont give yourself sufficient time, much less 30 miles to Aunt Mollys.

I too live in Jax Beach, and am monitoring the storm closely, though on the current track we may only experience very strong tropical conditions, as shear is expected to increase, and as you said, the nature of out coastline in North Florida.

As the other poster said, get the plywood for peace of mind, even if you don't eventually put it up this time.

Trust me, ahead of hurricane Floyd, you couldnt find plywood anywhere, and when shipments came in the lines at Home Depot were ridiculous.

Stay safe.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Also worth pointing out the NHC has Matthew as a Cat 4 right off the coast of Florida. If the upper level environment is nearly as favorable as the GFS is showing it may be, and the ridge is slightly stronger than expected, South Florida could experience the full brunt of a 130-150mph Category 4 hurricane.

[AModestLion]

Hoping it misses us in the Lehigh Valley ...thoughts and prayers to all it will affect at the end - crazy storm!

[birddogsc]

Just spoke to someone in South Carolina that said they have started evacuations in the bottom of their state, wow.

Not by the state at this point, but it's coming.

[tigerz3030]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

[GCANE]

4 people already ruled as causalities at the hand of Matthew in Haiti
Blackout on Port-au-Prince, Les Cayes flooded



Link: https://youtu.be/Xrt1qoz4deE

[Airboy]

I don't know if I'm wrong, but watching the recon data, it looks stronger now than just before the land fall on Haiti? or?

[TheProfessor]

Looking at the last frame it appears Matthew might be trying to shoot the gap with that East wobble.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/JulianMarchSN/status/783347279151370241

[jdjaguar]

So we are less than 72 hours out here in St Augustine, FL, and with the west shift yesterday what are possible expectations here for us to experience? Wind, rain, electricity blackouts?

Thanks in advance and prayers to everyone in Matthews path.

all of the above

[1900hurricane]

The more I see of the post-landfall recon data, the more convinced I am that landfall intensity was of 130 kt or higher with a pressure of 930 mb or lower.