ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneseddy]

UKMET plot

Are my eyes deceiving me or so I see a loop on the UKMET?

That makes it interesting; I know some of the earlier GFS ensemble were showing a loop as well as well as some earlier Euro runs.

[bqknight]

UKMET plot

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/xidBCXt.png[/img]

Add another model to the loop at the end. The UKMET was one of the first models to indicate a NW turn towards Florida.

[SunnyThoughts]

Glad to see that it missed US landfall on this run. Hopefully this is the start of an OTS trend.

If I can see it from my window, its a landfall to me!

No doubt, If that western eyewall comes over your house, even if you never see the eye itself...it will feel like a landfall, trust me.

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET plot

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/xidBCXt.png[/img]

http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2303589

.....why is the Ukmet doing a loop with Matthew??


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[tgenius]

UKMET plot

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/xidBCXt.png[/img]

Are my eyes deceiving me or so I see a loop on the UKMET?

That makes it interesting; I know some of the earlier GFS ensemble were showing a loop as well

UKMET has it almost parallel with Miami, I believe it's (even with the western movement) an outlier to the left from GFS and Euro (up to the next run in an hour.)

[Hurricaneman]

A few of the GFS ensembles agree with the UKMET which means that option is not off the table either

[chaser1]

UKMET plot

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/xidBCXt.png[/img]

Interesting how the UK seems to loop Matthew out east of Florida after impacting the Carolina's. A couple of the GFS members did that too if I remember correct. Then again, I believe the latest BAMS also showed that. So, what might be implied here is that if Matthew is really THAT MUCH weaker, than this might be a possible solution.

[jdjaguar]

UKMET plot

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/xidBCXt.png[/img]

Are my eyes deceiving me or so I see a loop on the UKMET?

That makes it interesting; I know some of the earlier GFS ensemble were showing a loop as well as well as some earlier Euro runs.

interesting is not the word I would use...a potential double-hit on Jax?

Are there any other models besides the early GFS showing potential loop?

[gatorcane]

Notice the NNE movement on the UKMET having the center miss Cuba all together. Even so, it still turns WNW/NW and almost hits Florida.

[Bocadude85]

The 12Z UKMET passes 57 miles east of my location, that is actually a westward shift as it is the closest it has been to my location.
From the how close can it get caculator.
Results for 26.25N, 80.11W:
The eye of the storm is about 57 miles (92 km) away.

[LarryWx]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2016 0 18.2N 74.3W 974 61
0000UTC 05.10.2016 12 19.7N 73.8W 976 61
1200UTC 05.10.2016 24 21.5N 74.0W 982 63
0000UTC 06.10.2016 36 23.0N 75.5W 982 61
1200UTC 06.10.2016 48 24.4N 77.4W 979 58
0000UTC 07.10.2016 60 26.1N 79.2W 975 63
1200UTC 07.10.2016 72 28.4N 80.7W 965 69
0000UTC 08.10.2016 84 30.8N 81.6W 966 64
1200UTC 08.10.2016 96 32.7N 81.5W 981 51
0000UTC 09.10.2016 108 33.2N 80.2W 997 37
1200UTC 09.10.2016 120 33.3N 78.3W 1003 41
0000UTC 10.10.2016 132 32.0N 76.6W 1007 46
1200UTC 10.10.2016 144 30.4N 76.4W 1008 40

Note the 36-48 hour move: 1.9W but only 1.4N...WNW. Only the NAVGEM and it have a WNW move then as others have NW. Is this the uk overdoing the ridge (does it have a bias) or is it seeing reality? Opinions?

[HurricaneFrances04]

I remember the Euro showing a loop or some type of meandering a few days ago.

[sma10]

UK really sticking to its guns here. 60hr point is 26.1, 79.2 which basically places it 45-50 miles due East of FLL.

And I know this sounds picky, but I think the early part of the UK run is already right biased. After initializing Matthew at 74.3 (which was fine), it's 12hr forecast point (8pm tonight) is 73.8W a NNE initial movement. Is it realistic based on current movement that Matthew will be as far east as 73.8 tonight at 8?

[Blown Away]

Notice the NNE movement on the UKMET having the center miss Cuba all together. Even so, it still turns WNW/NW and almost hits Florida.

Noticed that... I think the next few hours and the angle Matt turns NW or WNW will have be the biggest factor long term...

[birddogsc]

The loop in the UKMET would just reinforce the idea that the ridge is very strong, correct?

[gatorcane]

Oh no, the NAVGEM shifts more west, looks like landfall in South Florida:

[Jevo]

Oh no, the NAVGEM shifts more west:

It was one of the first to sniff out the W shift about 36 hours ago.

[WPBWeather]

Oh no, the NAVGEM shifts more west:

It was one of the first to sniff out the W shift about 36 hours ago.

Yes, it and the UKMET have been right more this year>

[meriland23]

[what are the chances this makes landfall as a cat 4 or 5 despite the shear

[LarryWx]

Only the NAVGEM and UK have a prolonged WNW move in the Bahamas as others have NW. Are they overdoing the ridge (bias?) or are they seeing reality? Opinions?