ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[jhpigott]

GFDL joins the 12z west train, taking Matthew inland Florida what appears to be around the Broward/Palm Beach border, before exiting back into the Atlantic just south of Jacksonville.

pic?

at 926mb, 120knts . . . yuck

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL joins the 12z west train, taking Matthew inland Florida what appears to be around the Broward/Palm Beach border, before exiting back into the Atlantic just south of Jacksonville.

pic?

at 926mb, 120knts . . . yuck

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

I believe that's the 1st time GFDL came ashore in FL?

[Bocadude85]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

[ronjon]

Dang...GFDL slams Ft Laud at 2 am Friday morning..runs over north side of Lake O, proceeds north through Orlando, and out to sea near JAX - absolutely horrible path.

[stormreader]

GFDL joins the 12z west train, taking Matthew inland Florida what appears to be around the Broward/Palm Beach border, before exiting back into the Atlantic just south of Jacksonville.

pic?

Run isn't posted on Trop Tidbits yet. But track is on SWFWMD site:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

Apparently we are not finished with the west shifts. As models fine-tune with slightly further west, it means a landfall, yes, but also a landfall further down the penninsula, impacting more of the penninsula. You can't even rule out a final point down at the very tip of the penninsula near the keys, before the strong N turn. That's been my thinking for about a week, and models may be closing in on that final solution.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looking at that graphic above, what a NIGHTMARE for Emergency Management all up and down the East Coast. Don't envy them at all. A system just carving out the coastline and knowing that a wobble left or right for all of these states, could bring catastrophic conditions, or merely tropical storm force winds. How do you sound the alarm bell, and Stress the need to be prepared, knowing if the storm misses your area, you will be called out for Overhyping by the public?

[Soonercane]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

[WPBWeather]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

Not this year.

[Alyono]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

not necessarily inferior to EC this year. EC has been downright BRUTAL. It's the model configuration as has been documented many times here

[Bocadude85]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

Actually the UKMET is a very good model. The NHC speaks of the UKMET on a regular basis in their forecast discussions.

[AutoPenalti]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

Well, while this MAY be correct, the west trend is still there.

[ronjon]

I think the concern is when you have the GFS ensembles shift west and the GFDL model shift west - are we starting to see another trend in the models. Obviously if the 12z ECM shows a landfall, then we are in big trouble here in Florida.

[Blown Away]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

Well, while this MAY be correct, the west trend is still there.

We shall see very soon what KING EURO says... Hopefully a new trend setter...

[lando]

So we have the 12z UKMET NAVGEM & GFDL showing a Florida landfall.. I think that is the first time we have had three models going with a Florida landfall correct?

Those models are all far inferior to the GFS and the EC when it comes to track though which keep it pretty well offshore.

but numerous GEFS models showed this during past run???

[stormlover2013]

Models are coming into better agreement now....won't be a big change maybe just maybe little bit more west but not to much

[caneseddy]

HWRF takes it over Abaco heading NW, misses Florida with landfall on the Outer Banks

[TheHook210]

Feeling really nervous waiting on the Euro track. We need an east trend damn it.

[tolakram]

One of the more anticipated model runs in the last few years and it's late to show up.

[Raebie]

I understand that means it's going to go east.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, about those comments hammering on the Euro: