ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Nimbus]

I'm seeing the trough split scenario starting to verify in the WV imagery.
If you look near the Yucatan Peninsula you can start to see the bow where it will likely cut off and roll south. That imparts what amounts to some negative tilt steering that should help jog Matthew around to a more NW heading.

The 15Z NHC track is still mid guidance off shore Florida, and I doubt we can accurately forecast a landfall scenario till Matthew starts to roll around NW. Maybe crossing the 75 Longitude line at 22 north would be a good spot to re-correlate the models.

[GCANE]

Since Matthew was little phased by Haiti and looks like will just graze Cuba, I think this is worth mentioning.
Here are the models that have performed the best for Matthew with track error less than 100 miles, 3 days out.
Some Euro enembles have also done well but I couldn't pull them up.
Hopefully I can get those later.

What is the JGSM??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

JGSM - Japanese Global Spectral Model

[AutoPenalti]

Has Euro initialized yet?

[JPmia]

Has Euro initialized yet?

I think it's late for work this afternoon.

[stormlover2013]

nope its late

[AutoPenalti]

That's not good.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783349603273932800

[tolakram]

Neither Tropical Tidbits or Weather bell have any data yet so it looks to be an issue at the source. ??

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783349603273932800

That's so super close to the Florida east coast...just a small shift west (even 30 miles) and all bets could be off.

[sma10]

Well, it's like I always say, eventually all the models come around to the Aussie solution.

[WPBWeather]

Well, it's like I always say, eventually all the models come around to the Aussie solution.

That Digital poster has been frightfully accurate with that model.

[Fishing]

Ryan Maue just said on twitter the Ecmwf will be delayed at least 60 minutes.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL animation:

[JaxGator]

Well, it's like I always say, eventually all the models come around to the Aussie solution.

That Digital poster has been frightfully accurate with that model.

Indeed he has and the pattern is coming together. He also tweeted that the Euro will be an hour late.......

[Aric Dunn]

So the slightly slower and I mean slightly slower models( and ensemble members) are florida landfalls and a also show a large loop... interesting.

[sma10]

So the slightly slower and I mean slightly slower models( and ensemble members) are florida landfalls and a also show a large loop... interesting.

I presume the interpretation here is that slightly slower means feeling the ridge slightly further south, imparting a more westerly component into Florida?

[tolakram]

Please stop the posting except for model info. We wait an hour for the Euro. I know some of you have seen my requests before so I'm a little disappointed I continue to have to clean some of these useless posts up.

[stormlover2013]

JMA should be done around 1:35 so lets see what it shows

[SouthernBreeze]

I would assume if that loop comes into play, there would be some serious slowing before the loop?

[NWFL56]

Well, it's like I always say, eventually all the models come around to the Aussie solution.

That Digital poster has been frightfully accurate with that model.

While waiting for the Euro, maybe we could see the latest Aussie solution??