ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/783418150696124416

[tolakram]

Just got home from work.

WTH DID I miss?!?!?!
Can someone give me the link to THAT model?

Check out the link in my signature, I try to keep things up to date there for the euro and gfs. Models have been meandering to moving westish, the latest euro run hits Florida, but of course once that happens people suddenly don't trust the euro .. must be a bad run ... etc. What we are dealing with is the fact all the models bounce around and one run does not make a forecast, but the risk to central Florida is rising.

---

Sorry, I'm ranting a bit (not at you, this are general thoughts), but it's so maddening to see people call a place safe when a few models scoot east only to have to look like fools when it comes back west, then another group claims a hit for sure and it will keep trending west, etc. etc.

This is why it's so important to plan ahead, have guidelines for if and when to evacuate and who to listen too, and then activate those plans when needed and avoid last minute subjective decisions based on a few model runs. We welcome everyone here to discuss the storm and try to gain advanced information but no one should use non official information to delay a decision, EVER. The NHC track and local officials should be who people listen too and react too. Don't let some crazy sense of pride get you stuck in a bad situation.

Stay safe everyone.

[SapphireSea]

While Matthew continues more or less at 360 degress overall. It seems to have nullified its former NW/NNW jog with a NNE jog on radar. Likely land interaction. Overall it still stayed on the line thus far. Have to see how much Wward the friction with Cuba will send Matthew. Ridge appears to be holding and building further as the NE upper low is finally gone and the High above that helping maintain it. Maybe 1 more minor west shift from models.

[Cuda]

Just got home from work.

WTH DID I miss?!?!?!
Can someone give me the link to THAT model?

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

Source for this? I was under the impression it was a perfectly valid run.

I'd like to see this run too, even only for the craziness of it.

[dukeblue219]

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

Source for this? I was under the impression it was a perfectly valid run.

I'd like to see this run too, even only for the craziness of it.

Check out the modelling thread instead of this one. There's plenty of pictures and discussion of the euro run starting around 2:30pm. It'll give you a better sense of what's happening than just a link to the 24-hour frames.

[Vdogg]

Awesome radar out of Gitmo. Looks like the eyewall is moving on shore now. 5pm nudged a bit closer to FL. NHC has no intensification of Matthew once the hurricane moves into the Atlantic. Kind of surprised with that. Conditions look pretty good to intensify until SW winds aloft from the trough start impacting Matthew. All you folks along the Atlantic coast need to get ready....looks like it could be a close call......MGC

Where did you see this? NHC specifically said that they expect Matthew to reintensify once it gets past the tip of Cuba In the 5pm disco.

[jlauderdal]

The last Euro has to be about the most insane forcast I have seen.

Takes out KSC, Savannah, and the southern burbs of Charleston.
Goes back into the Bahamas.
Then another run across Florida into the GOM.

Just got home from work.

WTH DID I miss?!?!?!
Can someone give me the link to THAT model?

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

if the euro run was suspect why did nhc go west based off the solution?

The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left

[Arsynic]

Just spoke to a relative 2 miles from the shore in Charleston. They are under mandatory evacuation.

that seems way pre mature

I don't know if I would say its premature or not, all these decisions by emergency management have to be made asap. There are potentially 4 states that will be impacted (not even considering the NE should that happen) that can't wait until they know EXACTLY where its going to come ashore, if it does at all, to start evacuating people. Fla, Ga, Sc and NC...the coastal areas, could alL be raked by hurricane force winds or tropical storm force winds, or possibly nothing at all. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

Governor Haley knows what she's doing. The coast of SC is the most densely populated part of the state, some 1.5 million people with infrastructure that's struggling to keep up with the growth. She remembers the debacle that was the Floyd evacuation and how it sunk Governor Hodges at the time. In fact, the only reason I remember his name is because the idiot waited too long to reverse lanes and people like me sat in the same spot for 24 hours. I remember it vividly. Kids were tossing footballs on the interstate and people were going in the bushes.

So not premature at all. Once the rain starts, it will be too late.

[tolakram]

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

Hi Pete, we need a source bad for that kind of information. Looking for it on the models thread?

[Arsynic]

Looks like it shifted east up here.

Ga/sc coast? Did you notice the slower movement? Shifted about 6 hours behind. Hopefully that holds true and keeps it off the coast at SC/NC border

It's likely slowing for the NNW, NW turn.

[Vdogg]

Just got home from work.

WTH DID I miss?!?!?!
Can someone give me the link to THAT model?

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

if the euro run was suspect why did nhc go west based off the solution?

The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left

They did not adjust the track based on the 5 day euro result, just the 3 day. It is largely in line with the other models for the first 3 days. After that it diverges wildly from the consensus.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Today, our local news site published an article about how the various cruise lines are rerouting their FL ships due to Matthew. The link to the full story is below, but I had to read this line twice before believing it -

"The Carnival Elation in Jacksonville is also avoiding Nassau and heading to Key West, then back to Freeport in the Bahamas behind the storm."

WTH!? Are they going to sell "Looting Excursions" or a "Bahamian Ruins Tour"?

http://www.mynews13.com/content/news/cf ... rambl.html

[abajan]

Wide-Atlantic view....is it August or September out there? Look at the mass behind Matthew which is supposed to basically head west through the Caribbean.

https://s12.postimg.org/yvy2jobwd/avn_animated.gif

Yeah, that's the soon to be INVEST 99L and possibly Otto down the road. Our Met office is keeping close tabs on it. Here's the S2K thread.

[jlauderdal]

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

if the euro run was suspect why did nhc go west based off the solution?

The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left

They did not adjust the track based on the 5 day euro result, just the 3 day. It is largely in line with the other models for the first 3 days. After that it diverges wildly from the consensus.

so only part of the run was bad?

[NDG]

18z GFS is coming in a little more to the west than its previous run by 15-20 miles, I would expect the NHC to keep pushing their track a little more to the west at 11 PM, IMO.

[stormreader]

Seems when speeding up radar loop that there has been some good northwest jogs every now and then over past few hours. Is it already starting to make it's turn a little bit? That would verify what some were questioning with the Euro

I think you're going to find a pretty hard left turn. At least enough so that as it heads toward Fl it will consistently be a little south of the most recent Euro run. But I do expect that model to catch up to this sometime tomorrow and shift south and west.

Not sure what your trying to say. It was the latest Euro who came out south and west of other major model runs in the first place. It was the south and west location in the Euro run who some were questioning through first 24 hours of the latest run.

I know. But I think the Euro will shift further south and west again by tomorrow. Like the GfS it was late catching on to the obvious western solution. Less sophisticated models had this track earlier on. But the Euro is catching on now. Expect another shift west and south tomorrow.

[NDG]

I think that by the GFS trending westward today it gives credit to the 12z Euro, at least through the next 96 hrs, I do find the Euro to be a little crazy after that.

[Vdogg]

if the euro run was suspect why did nhc go west based off the solution?

The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left

They did not adjust the track based on the 5 day euro result, just the 3 day. It is largely in line with the other models for the first 3 days. After that it diverges wildly from the consensus.

so only part of the run was bad?

Yes. NHC basically ignored the latter half of the ECMWF and kept that part of the track the same.

[ozonepete]

Just got home from work.

WTH DID I miss?!?!?!
Can someone give me the link to THAT model?

It was a bad run. They probably had a system malfunction and so it misread the data or wrong data.

What? The UKMET had a very similar solution. It's a weird solution, but please don't call it a "bad run from a system malfunction" when that is not the case.

Oh, okay. I wasn't clear. To me this was a really bad run and it looks like a malfunction. It (and the other British system UKMET) made what we call an outlier so far off the mark that you discard it, throw it out. What NHC apparently did was use it in blends up until the time when it goes crazy.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I think you're going to find a pretty hard left turn. At least enough so that as it heads toward Fl it will consistently be a little south of the most recent Euro run. But I do expect that model to catch up to this sometime tomorrow and shift south and west.

Not sure what your trying to say. It was the latest Euro who came out south and west of other major model runs in the first place. It was the south and west location in the Euro run who some were questioning through first 24 hours of the latest run.

I know. But I think the Euro will shift further south and west again by tomorrow. Like the GfS it was late catching on to the obvious western solution. Less sophisticated models had this track earlier on. But the Euro is catching on now. Expect another shift west and south tomorrow.

How much further south and west do you think it will go?