ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6301 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:37 pm

Ridge building pretty aggressively to the west through 36
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6302 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:37 pm

Much more ridging by hour 36 and slightly west of 12Z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6303 Postby blp » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:37 pm

Now coming in a hair west of 12z ridge showing stronger storm.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6304 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:39 pm

GFS 18z running

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6305 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:40 pm

MU has the core severely disrupted by Cuba. MUCH weaker this run so far
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6306 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:40 pm

4 run trend

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6307 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:42 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6308 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:43 pm

Alyono wrote:MU has the core severely disrupted by Cuba. MUCH weaker this run so far


I'm not seeing it... This storm held together quite well over a very mountainous Haiti peninsula and is barely going to touch Cuba...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6309 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:43 pm

Just a hair west of the 12z run

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6310 Postby TimeZone » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:44 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:MU has the core severely disrupted by Cuba. MUCH weaker this run so far


I'm not seeing it... This storm held together quite well over a very mountainous Haiti peninsula and is barely going to touch Cuba...


I concur. That little NNE jog he pulled a few seconds ago has all but confirmed very minimal land interaction with Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6311 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:45 pm

tolakram wrote:Just a hair west of the 12z run

Image


I see absolutely no way out this run
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6312 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:45 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6313 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6314 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:48 pm

4 run trend

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6315 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:48 pm

Alyono wrote:MU has the core severely disrupted by Cuba. MUCH weaker this run so far


Yea, definitely up through 36 hours the storm is weaker, but it quickly builds right back up as it nears Florida due to a very favorable upper-level environment. Matthew could weaken to 125mph post Cuba and ramp up to 140-145mph near/at landfall in Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6316 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:48 pm

This is gonna be a Port Canaveral landfall at 72.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6317 Postby SapphireSea » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:48 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


If that 588 contour is in that position it is a classical case of the MU plowing through the ridge. Cant see a 350degree heading in the face of that setup. But more west. This all but confirms the short and mid term Euro is not truely bugged.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6318 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:49 pm

Anyone know why its forecast to lose some intensity as it approaches Florida? I always thought of thr straits between Fl and the bahamas as pretty fertile ground intensification. Trust me I'd love to see it fizzle out but what's in the way to cause a weaker storm for us?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6319 Postby CDO62 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:50 pm

It's looking like it's just a few miles West through 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6320 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:50 pm

Just when I think a run is going to direct hit Florida, Matthew scoots north.
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