ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TJRE]

OPC at 96hrs

for the pencil and paper crowd.....





http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/1164839483574781

Understanding current conditions is the starting point, and the most critical part, of any weather forecast. -cmc-

[WeatherHoon]

Wow

GFDL looks a tad bit north from 12z's run.

[Evil Jeremy]

57 don't get not including dade in hurricane watch being 20 min away. With such a powerful hurricane and potential wind field expansions and wobbles its a very risky call. Also time table for a TS warning for me please?

Warnings should come at 11pm. I won't be surprised if Dade gets a TS Warning/H Watch combo while everything north is H Warning.

I'm also expecting H Watches through Jax (at least) at 11.

[floridasun78]

so models turning matthew more to left? do any weatherman here see nhc extending hurr watch to dade

[SouthFLTropics]

Keep this for the models guys...please.

[floridasun78]

Keep this for the models guys...please.

i did ask models have shift more to left latest runs

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Mod's my apologies up front for this post,
Been out taking care of boats and lose things here in Key Largo. Please if possible to catch up on all the models can some one please provide a quick easy update as to what's models are doing what at this time.

[floridasun78]

witch models change more left latest runs?

[ZX12R]

57 don't get not including dade in hurricane watch being 20 min away. With such a powerful hurricane and potential wind field expansions and wobbles its a very risky call. Also time table for a TS warning for me please?

Warnings should come at 11pm. I won't be surprised if Dade gets a TS Warning/H Watch combo while everything north is H Warning.

I'm also expecting H Watches through Jax (at least) at 11.

I really don't think that would be an unreasonable step to take. Mathew is a very serious storm, with at least a somewhat uncertain track.

[tolakram]

For those needing to catch up click the link in my signature to see an experimental tracking page with graphics of the last few GFS and ECMWF runs plus links to Tropical Tidbits where you can peruse all the recent runs.

[gatorcane]

It is still interesting to note the ECMWF is slower than the GFS even at hour 24. Looking at how slow Matthew is now moving past the Eastern tip of Cuba, the ECMWF might be right. The GFS has always wanted to move Matthew out of the Caribbean too quickly from the get-go.

[ronjon]

For those needing to catch up click the link in my signature to see an experimental tracking page with graphics of the last few GFS and ECMWF runs plus links to Tropical Tidbits where you can peruse all the recent runs.

Very nice link Mark. Thanks for putting that together.

[OuterBanker]

I'm just waiting for the models to take us out of it. Just about everything has been cancelled around the OBX.
Why not cancel the hurricane too.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Are the pages not refreashing or does no one have any way of updating me on the models

[Tertius]

Are the pages not refreashing or does no one have any way of updating me on the models

See Tolakram's post, about 3 before this one. Click the link.

[marciacubed]

Are the pages not refreashing or does no one have any way of updating me on the models

I have no idea how to do that or I would help you. Sorry

[ConvergenceZone]

Don't models suppose to run every 6 hours? For some reason we'd have one more EURO run before the one late tonight?

[WHYB630]

more GEFS ensemble members show the lopping movement in 18z run
Seems like EC is not -removed-

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[SeGaBob]

Don't models suppose to run every 6 hours? For some reason we'd have one more EURO run before the one late tonight?

Euro is only twice a day. 1:45 am/pm

[robbielyn]

Don't models suppose to run every 6 hours? For some reason we'd have one more EURO run before the one late tonight?

Euro runs 2am and 2pm every 12hours