ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WHYB630]

The trough is more flat this run. Expect more eastward movement after passing SC/NC
But it is difficult to aviod FL now...Folks from there should start Hurricane prop right now

[tolakram]

Already parallel to the coast, much quicker turn.

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

NorthJax, based on model runs now what do we expect in St Augustine around WGV?

Well, looking at the most recent EURO run and the latest 11:00 p.m. advisory from NHC, the potential of Matthew's eyewall getting within 30- 50 miles within the coast is so worrisome. That would put hurricane winds from about at least within 20 miles of the coast. Matthew is so large and the windfield will only expand with time. I would definitely be inclined to think areas out around I-95. Corridor will see potentially winds in the 50-60 mph sustained with gusts to hurrcane force even out to the World Golf Village.

There will be very significant damage and widespread power outages. That is a 100 percent certainty.

Tigerz3030, it is just time to hunker down like we have not seen before. This is the REAL DEAL no doubt.

The verdict is in pretty much now by the models. We are unside of three days now. I do not see much way of wild changes with the models now at this point. We are staring down a Category 4 beast over the next 80-96 hours all along the Florida East Coast.

I have to decide by Thursday at the latest with regards of riding it out or heading inland away from Matthew. I have made all the preps as vest I can with securing all loose objects and cutting tree limbs and branches from becoming flying debris. Have all batteries and water and fueled the car full.in the event if I decide to take off.

We have talked so long about how so very lucky we have been in Florida these past 11 years without having a major hurricane impact us signficantly. Now we are close to seeing this come to fruition in the next couple of days. Our luck just may have FINALLY run out here in thevstate folks. It is pretty much a likelihood that Matthew will get close.enough to really exact real problems, and may indeed make direct landfall. We have had a target on our backs here in Northeast Florida this hurricane season. Matthew likely will be our fouth tropical cyclone to impact this area. Incredible that Mother Nature has saved this beast to likely torment us by Friday.

[tolakram]

This is why I think the euro run was believable. Matthew is about to get decapitated and it would not surprise me of the low level swirl bends back around.

[bamajammer4eva]

Trough to the west has trended weaker on the last several runs on 500 mb map. Doesn't look like it scoops nearly as far to pick up Matt this time

[tolakram]

Moving east

[gatorcane]

With these shifts wests we are seeing with the models, it is not out of the realm of possibility this could even landfall near West Palm Beach or further south down the coast of Palm Beach County. Even Broward County is not off the table though would be surprised it landfalls that far south.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Looks to be moving OTS at 90 hours.

[WHYB630]

00z GFS t@96: going east. The core is not even touching NC

[ronyan]

Looks like some southward movement.

[sma10]

The ridge that is depicted on the models blows my mind. If you would have told me a month ago that we'd get hit by a major storm approaching from the Southeast due to a strong Bermuda high I'd have taken that bet and lost a ton of money. This is unheard of and history in the making. We will remember these model runs and this storm for generations to come.

Even though it had a different area of Genesis (Western Caribbean), Hurricane King in 1950 had a very similar track in October.

[tolakram]

Still east.

[p1nheadlarry]

ECMWF > GFS

UKMET > ECMWF

Therefore

UKMET > GFS

Well this time, maybe, for now

[Dean4Storms]

These model runs are flush full of NOAA Jet missions and the increased balloon releases, they should be getting dialed in on the ridge now. Think this is about it as far as any big west shift.

[WHYB630]

Southern movement... hopefully Matthew doesn't dance around like he's high
Otherwise he is giving forecasters headache once again

[ronyan]

These model runs are flush full of NOAA Jet missions and the increased balloon releases, they should be getting dialed in on the ridge now. Think this is about it as far as any big west shift.

Sure but now you don't need a big west shift to landfall in FL.

[tolakram]

South of east now. This is getting interesting.

[BobHarlem]

Is the GFS wanting to pull that crazy euro loop thing also?

[tolakram]

Looks to be maintaining strength as well. Go ACE numbers, just don't loop back!