ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tgenius]

Can't link the graphic but at 48 hr the GFS looks roughly an it north on the new run but could be my eyes as I'm still half aslee from waking up.

[xironman]

For all intents and purposes a twin at 54

[FLpanhandle91]

00z and 06z GFS pretty close at 54 hours.

[FLpanhandle91]

Port Canaveral landfall at 60.

[xironman]

The northern stream continues to dominate, stupid Nina. Probably it will get left behind again.

[stormlover2013]

Trend is not east

[FLpanhandle91]

Eye wall rides the coast up to Jacksonville through 72 hours.

[NDG]

Yeap, 06z GFS has partial landfall over Cape Canaveral into Volusia & Flaggler Counties.

[seahawkjd]

84 hours seems a decent amount southwest from the 0z.

[xironman]

Looks like it wants to start the loop at 90hrs.

[artist]

[NDG]

[RL3AO]

Euro wasn't buying in to the southern part of the trough being as strong over past couple days. So often it seems to nail the mid latitude pattern at day 5 and 7 before the gfs adjusts to it.

[xironman]

Upper level winds not favorable at 144, but if it goes a bit south things will get better

[GCANE]

Here are the best performing models as of today's 06Z runs.
They all have track accuracy of less than 70 miles over 48 hr period for Matthew.

[NDG]

And I keep saying that people were calling the 12z Euro crazy, it is always the lead trender within the 5-7 day range.

[xironman]

Pretty weak on the second approach, but the pattern looks like it is going to be around for a while.

[jlauderdal]

Pretty weak on the second approach, but the pattern looks like it is going to be around for a while.

yes but we have all learned a lesson about the modeling..its good too about H72 and thats about it

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

delete.

[NDG]

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/b176a4drl/2016_10_05_21_22_35_MSLP_10_m_Wind_Core_18z.png

This is yesterday's 18z GFDL run, it has been a little on the left biased all along.