ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[xironman]

Pretty weak on the second approach, but the pattern looks like it is going to be around for a while.

yes but we have all learned a lesson about the modeling..its good too about H72 and thats about it

The GFS obviously failed miserably with the northern stream, not an unusual for Nina like conditions. Dude, where's my trough. Should have figured on it.

[RL3AO]

Well that 6z run should cause some commotion.

[xironman]

Through the Florida Straits?

[jlauderdal]

Through the Florida Straits?

put the shutters up and leave them up

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/b176a4drl/2016_10_05_21_22_35_MSLP_10_m_Wind_Core_18z.png

This is yesterday's 18z GFDL run, it has been a little on the left biased all along.

Yeah thanks i loaded the earlier image this is the 00z.

[Stangfriik]

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/b176a4drl/2016_10_05_21_22_35_MSLP_10_m_Wind_Core_18z.png

This is yesterday's 18z GFDL run, it has been a little on the left biased all along.

Yeah thanks i loaded the earlier image this is the 00z.

We'll that's no Bueno considering we are in new smyrna beach. Luckily we aren't beachside but are 2 blocks west of the intracoastal which is about 1.5 miles from the beach

[BobHarlem]

multiple crazy looping runs now. Florida is sure making up for the 11 year hurricane drought this year.

[Nimbus]

The models were behaving for 00Z runs hope we aren't going to see another shift west.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The models were behaving for 00Z runs hope we aren't going to see another shift west.

Looks like many more gfs ensembles bring ashore in the 06z in the Martin/St Lucie vicinity.

[shaneomac]

Im speechless , guess the loop is a real possibility , spares most of areas farther North .

[Nimbus]

My pet question of the morning.
The Miami area had been largely escaping the core winds until this latest jump in the GFS.
Is the 06Z based on new data such as a stronger ridge due to the stall over the tip of Cuba?



They are trying to tell us something..

[ronjon]

NHC track on the east side of guidance.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

THats Crazy...the BAMS picked up the loop yesterday none of the other models did. I was first to comment on it 25 or 30 pages back. EURO/GFS were all north east.

[Ken711]

The models were behaving for 00Z runs hope we aren't going to see another shift west.

Where are the models showing Matthew heading once the loop is complete?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

And I keep saying that people were calling the 12z Euro crazy, it is always the lead trender within the 5-7 day range.

EURO was not the first to smell this out

[NDG]

A close up look to last night's 0z Euro run, which is still is the best performing global model with Matthew, unfortunately. This is through 1 AM Saturday morning, 6 hr intervals.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

A close up look to last night's 0z Euro run, which is still is the best performing global model with Matthew, unfortunately. This is through 1 AM Saturday morning, 6 hr intervals.

BAMS saw the hook yesterday euro was doing whatever sending it up to maine

[NDG]

A close up look to last night's 0z Euro run, which is still is the best performing global model with Matthew, unfortunately. This is through 1 AM Saturday morning, 6 hr intervals.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 82ho5m.jpg

BAMS saw the hook yesterday euro was doing whatever sending it up to maine

BAMS was just lucky since this is a deep system and not a shallow system.
Yesterday's 12z Euro did a hook before the GFS did.

[stormlover2013]

Another 7 days of this he'll who knows where it's going to go on day 7 this is crazy

[shaneomac]

Another 7 days of this he'll who knows where it's going to go on day 7 this is crazy

Jeez the way things are going this storm might even be in the pacific ocean lol what a mess . i just dont buy this loop .. but its a real possibility perhaps could be a off run but i dont know .. what a nightmare to forecast .