ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[bg1]

Still uneasy about effects near Santee, SC.

If trends continue (Matt being slower, ridge stronger, trough weaker, Nicole stronger) would this cause the turn E to happen at a lower latitude?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Does the loops look like it took a western jog on last frame
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[stormlover2013]

Euro kinda of sniffed this our last Friday

[Nimbus]

Through the Florida Straits?

This is after the crazy loop obviously.

[tolakram]

Some saves from the tcgen site.

UKMET


ECMWF


GFS

[caneseddy]

Through the Florida Straits?

So is this run based on stronger ridging due to the slow down over Cuba?
I think Mathew would have to restrengthen to at least cat 4 to get ridge heights like that.

That's actually Matthew next Thursday...crazy I know

[tolakram]

Most recent ECMWF and GFS run animations. So much for laughing at the loop.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. Dont like that run at all. Prepare day. Shutters. Got water. Should have enough propane.

[adam0983]

Hurricane Matthew looks to be southwest of the NHC track at this time. I can see a hurricane warning for dade county today. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Vdogg]

So, just looked at 6z Hwrf, and I must say the end track looks much more plausible to me. I preface this by saying I'm not a professional met, I'm simply using my experience from living in Virginia Beach for 20 years. The Hwrf shows the storm riding up the coast and exiting at Hatteras without the crazy loop at the end. Storms making the curve Matthew is making almost always exit the coast near Hatteras/Outer Banks, and then proceed to turn extratropical once they reach Virginia Beach's latitude. These Hurricane/Noreaster hybrids are very common for us in October and November, you can almost set your watch by them. They Herald the arrival of Fall in this area. I think the incoming trough may be underdone, and would not be surprised to see significant shifts in the track past 72 hours. I could be wrong, but VA/NC shouldn't let their guard down. Local media is all but sounding the all clear and I think we might get caught with our pants down.

[Nimbus]

Hurricane Matthew looks to be southwest of the NHC track at this time. I can see a hurricane warning for dade county today. Just an opinion not a forecast.

We probably won't get a definitive answer concerning landfall waiting just 2 model cycles.
Depends on Mathew strengthening and the steering ridge soundings which we don't have yet..

[Cuda]

Can anyone explain why on the models where Matthew loops back down to Florida it is forecasted to lose a lot of strength?

[sponger]

Can anyone explain why on the models where Matthew loops back down to Florida it is forecasted to lose a lot of strength?

Shear!

[Scorpion]

Can anyone explain why on the models where Matthew loops back down to Florida it is forecasted to lose a lot of strength?

Shear, upwelling. Mainly shear.

[Portastorm]

Can anyone explain why on the models where Matthew loops back down to Florida it is forecasted to lose a lot of strength?

It is possible that, if this scenario occurs, Matthew would be traversing waters he already crossed earlier. Hurricanes often leave cooler waters in their wake. Also, upper atmosphere conditions may be less conducive by then for the storm to maintain strength.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I saw this yesterday on the Euro ( the loop) and now that it's coming to a consensus, I am seeing that we'll have a historic track here...if it plays out this way. 2 days ago we would not have believed this solution and it would have been dismissed as folly. That huge ridge seems about right for October, but the longer the synoptic setup goes with no trough, is like playing craps and after many rolls continuing to bet the "7" wont come up...the turn east and start of the loop is till 84 hours away, and 84 hours ago the GFS and Euro setup was way different.

So over the next 72 hours if Mathew behaves and does not speed up a lot, looks like there is nothing to overcome the monster ridge building in over the eastern US. But if is slows down it looks to me like it could loop even faster and come back across FL, or if is a lot faster, it will get a lot further north before heading out to sea. FL is getting hit with some bad conditions that's pretty clear at this point, but Id say GA, SC, and NC, are pretty up the air still, despite the last two sets of model runs. Another big factor is going to be just how much strengthening occurs. The track, storm size, windfield, rain rate, i.e. what actually gets ashore is really variable still. FL folks hang tough, I think I'll hold up on shutters up in Wilmington at least till tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

Can anyone explain why on the models where Matthew loops back down to Florida it is forecasted to lose a lot of strength?

The trough that begins to turn it northward still will impart very very strong shear on the system. It's just the trough isn't deep enough to send it out to sea in the latest model runs.

[wzrgirl1]

I think that when posting models beyond 5 days we should preface exactly that as some may get the impression that the models showing a second landfall may actually believe it's the first landfall. Not everyone can read model runs and times. Just a thought. When I first saw some of the runs with the loop 10 days out I thought the track had shifted to the keys.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Matthew is way southwest of forecast by 25 miles should not of made that turn till noonish

[La Sirena]

Matthew is way southwest of forecast by 25 miles should not of made that turn till noonish

Any chance you have a graphic for that?