ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WilmingtonSandbar]

And the high out of the NW looks to be getting pinch. Possible opening for NC again?

[ronjon]

At 42 hrs:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_7.png

At 54 hrs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_9.png

At 60 hrs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png

[Cuda]

Eastern Orlando at 54 hrs.

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Eastern Orlando at 54 hrs.

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

Probably a question for the discussion page.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What a mess this has become. I have seldom seen the NHC cone deviate so much in both the medium and long terms. I don't think the models can be trusted moving forward.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well crap...not liking how that GFS is showing up. Let's see what the Euro has but based on current trends I'm prepping for at minimum a Cat 4 direct hit!!!

[JarrodB]

Eastern Orlando at 54 hrs.

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

If this holds true and Orlando is in the eye wall, then I would expect similar if not worse conditions than Charlie brought back in '04.

[ronjon]

Well crap...not liking how that GFS is showing up. Let's see what the Euro has but based on current trends I'm prepping for at minimum a Cat 4 direct hit!!!

yeah southFL you may end up getting the northern or eastern eyewall on this one. Very bad situation.

[SunnyThoughts]

About time for the loop to start, if it continues to show one that is.

[ronjon]

Eastern Orlando at 54 hrs.

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

If this holds true and Orlando is in the eye wall, then I would expect similar if not worse conditions than Charlie brought back in '04.

Thing to keep in mind is MATT is a much larger (in areal size) storm than Charley which was fairly compact.

[bqknight]

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

If this holds true and Orlando is in the eye wall, then I would expect similar if not worse conditions than Charlie brought back in '04.

Thing to keep in mind is MATT is a much larger (in areal size) storm than Charley which was fairly compact.

Orlando would get it pretty bad I'd assume. Power out, trees down, etc.

Also - Charley came from the west. Downtown Orlando is MUCH closer to the East coast, thus the storm losing less steam.

[TheHook210]

Can some one please tell me intensity when this thing landfalls?? Is this going to be a cat 4?

[Ken711]

From 78hr to 90hr it's barely moving.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

If this holds true and Orlando is in the eye wall, then I would expect similar if not worse conditions than Charlie brought back in '04.

Thing to keep in mind is MATT is a much larger (in areal size) storm than Charley which was fairly compact.

And Charlie was RACING through, while this storm will be moving much slower. Night and day as far as impacts. Matt will likely be a lot worse. A lot more rain as well as high winds for an extended amount of time.

[OntarioEggplant]

Eastern Orlando at 54 hrs.

If that were to verify, how much would Matthew weaken by the time it hit Orlando? In other words, what sort of wind/damage would you expect in Orlando?

Very little weakening as it will remain close enough to the coast. There will be high wind damage. Enough where you should put shutters or plywood on your windows.

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm not seeing that trough coming down on the loop on this run as much as we did on the last two.

[SFLcane]

Wow they gotta include dade in hurricane warning!

[Raebie]

Looping back down towards Florida at 120.

[Raebie]

126 - FL landfall.

Can someone please post the graphics?

[Ken711]

I'm not seeing that trough coming down on the loop on this run as much as we did on the last two.

Yet it still is looping.