ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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msp
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7001 Postby msp » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:37 am

still spinning and stalled north of the yucatan thru at least 222hrs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7002 Postby SoupBone » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:38 am

msp wrote:still spinning and stalled north of the yucatan thru at least 222hrs



What would possibly drive this thing back south all the way down there?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7003 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:39 am

GFDL shifts East back offshore and never landfalls anywhere.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7004 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:40 am

JtSmarts wrote:I believe that 32.8N 80.0W on the Ukmet is inland SC near Charleston


The models have generally trended toward the UK's solutions for the past few days, right?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7005 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:40 am

So, 2 hits from Matthew and then Nicole?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7006 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:41 am

UKMET plot

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7007 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:43 am

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7008 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:49 am

tolakram wrote:UKMET plot

Image


What does it show? My place of employment blocks image sites.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7009 Postby Raebie » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:51 am

Mine does too. Can you use your phone? Shows a loop back down toward FL. Same basically as GFS.
Last edited by Raebie on Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7010 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:52 am

UKMET shift E around FL - avoids landfall - Nice! Maybe there is hope...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7011 Postby Jevo » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:54 am

chris_fit wrote:UKMET shift E around FL - avoids landfall - Nice! Maybe there is hope...


At the same time the GFS and HWRF shift West.... Model Madness :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7012 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:57 am

Jevo wrote:
chris_fit wrote:UKMET shift E around FL - avoids landfall - Nice! Maybe there is hope...


At the same time the GFS and HWRF shift West.... Model Madness :double:


Still west overall.

Maybe only wobble hope for FL left.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7013 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:59 am

seahawkjd wrote:What does it show? My place of employment blocks image sites.


Misses Florida but landfall near Charleston SC before looping around.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7014 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:01 pm

chris_fit wrote:UKMET shift E around FL - avoids landfall - Nice! Maybe there is hope...


Not good for SC though
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7015 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:07 pm

My apology this morning when I mentioned the NHC track showing this moving well off shore of Florida . I use a hurricane app on my phone and apparently it wasn't refreshing itself on my phone, so it was showing me an almost 2 day old track that I thought was current.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7016 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:34 pm

12 NAVGEM - Ocala at 54 hrs:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016100512&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=151
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7017 Postby tgenius » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:35 pm

Let's hope Euro runs on time today, should be kicking off pretty soon (if not already)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7018 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:36 pm



Looks like the NAVGEM shifted west a little
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7019 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:36 pm



Looks like landfall near Stuart or Fort Pierce.

I'm almost having Frances flashbacks with that track. Just more of a SE to NW angle.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7020 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:37 pm

12z CMC 42 hrs:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016100512/gem_mslp_pcpn_seus_7.png

Significant shift west from earlier run.
Last edited by ronjon on Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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