ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ZX12R]

He VERY much is getting his act together just hasn't really started strengthening again yet. He is getting ready to ramp up pretty quickly over night though. Once that is cleared out again which it's well on it's way to do so he should ramp very quickly.

In other words, Matthew is poised. Very poised!

I say within 12 hours he will be a Cat. 5

I also believe that's actually possible. I just hope not. I expect to wake up tomorrow morning and see a cat 1 storm coming our way. Or a tropical storm approaching Florida. Or a depression, or a thunderstorm, or just a breeze with drizzle.

[Weatherhorse]

Just announced - MANDATORY evacuations for the entire city of St. Augustine

Source please?

mandatory evacuation
http://www.sjcemergencymanagement.org/levelofact.html

Edit: update evac status

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

So I'd like to know with how models been trending do ya'll think 11pm update track will shift west, east, or stay same?

[DelrayMorris]

Sheriff's office just came through our development and told us we have to evacuate. We have until 5am to get out. I'm pretty much ready to go, so we are heading to my Grandmother's house now. (Mobile home development in pbc)

Wait... are you GOING to a mobile home park in PBC or LEAVING A mobile home park in PBC? If that's where you are evacuating to, you need to have a different plan, I think.

[Blinhart]

If you are in a Hurricane Warning area it is not a good idea to be staying in a Mobile Home, especially if this is a Cat 4 or 5, those homes will be tossed around like matches, please do not stay in a Mobile home if you are with in 50 miles of the East Coast of Florida.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope your landfall predictions are wrong, 150+ mph winds will destroy whoever it hits and combine that with a track just inland up the coast. The destruction will be huge. If there's any good news it's that Matthew is not a large storm so it's scale will not be as big as say an Ike.

[ozonepete]

Wow. I hope everyone is prepared and in place now. Matthew will be way too close by tomorrow midday to be trying to get away or board up. I wish all of you guys the best and hope that the upcoming 00Z global runs from the GFS and Euro show a little movement east and even some weakening. I know all of you S2K guys know what to do but the current forecast is really sobering.

[Johnny77]

I'll go with landfall at Juno Beach, FL (Palm Beach County) with 140 mph sustained.

[caneseddy]

Channel 10 here in Miami almost sounding the all clear for South Florida because of the spaghetti plots showing none making landfall in South Florida

I think it's pretty premature for that

Just like on this board, mets on TV will say a lot of garbage in order to be the "one who called it first"

Good thing Mayfield was there saying track is not set in stone yet

[WHYB630]

Mobile homes can't even stand Cat 1-2 in an open area. Come on =_=
Really make another plan for your safety, seriously

[northjaxpro]

Just announced - MANDATORY evacuations for the entire city of St. Augustine

Source please?

St. John Emergency Management has a level 2 (partial evacuation) listed

The entire city of Saint Augustine is under mandatory evacuation. WJXT TV 4 is live on the scene there at the St Johns County EOC.
http://www.sjcemergencymanagement.org/levelofact.html

[psyclone]

Wow. I hope everyone is prepared and in place now. Matthew will be way too close by tomorrow midday to be trying to get away or board up. I wish all of you guys the best and hope that the upcoming 00Z global runs from the GFS and Euro show a little movement east and even some weakening. I know all of you S2K guys know what to do but the current forecast is really sobering.

When I saw the 5 pm my first thought was...well that's about as bad as it can get so maybe we can do better before the strike....

[ozonepete]

So I'd like to know with how models been trending do ya'll think 11pm update track will shift west, east, or stay same?

There's no way to know. Nothing on the satellite or radar images or smaller models shows any change in the forecast so far. We just have to wait for the major model output between 11PM and 1AM..

[RL3AO]

They might not be able to wait for next recon pass. It's still 20 minutes away and they usually want this advisory out before the 11pm news to get TV mets enough time to update everything.

[OrlandoKnight]

I'm in central Seminole County, just NW of Brevard. I'm probably 50ish miles inland...less probably. I've made the preparations I can. I'm terrified.

My thoughts are with my fellow Floridians.

Stay safe! We've cleaned up here around the place here in Orlando area but not boarding anything up. Would assume we will deal with power issues at the least. Neighborhood is all dead oak trees over power wires.

[mpic]

The Weather Channel live for those you can't get it on tv http://www.stream2watch.cc/live-televis ... ive-stream

[Steve]

So I'd like to know with how models been trending do ya'll think 11pm update track will shift west, east, or stay same?

You are going to have to wait a couple of hours. Only NAM will be out within the hour, and it's not very good for tropical tracks but can show synoptics. Although usually with 36-48 hours it's in line with consensus. So you could start there. I put up early cycle a page of so back for the reruns/previews of some of the runs. Otherwise, it's GFS then CMC then probably GFDL, HWRF and JMA and finally ECMWF.

[WPBWeather]

Channel 10 here in Miami almost sounding the all clear for South Florida because of the spaghetti plots showing none making landfall in South Florida

I think it's pretty premature for that

Just like on this board, mets on TV will say a lot of garbage in order to be the "one who called it first"

Good thing Mayfield was there saying track is not set in stone yet

Rather silly thing for 10 to say if they did. No data showing that yet.

[ozonepete]

Wow. I hope everyone is prepared and in place now. Matthew will be way too close by tomorrow midday to be trying to get away or board up. I wish all of you guys the best and hope that the upcoming 00Z global runs from the GFS and Euro show a little movement east and even some weakening. I know all of you S2K guys know what to do but the current forecast is really sobering.

When I saw the 5 pm my first thought was...well that's about as bad as it can get so maybe we can do better before the strike....

Yeah this is when it gets discouraging: when the models are all locking into agreement on a worst case scenario. Though there still is a possibility the eye stays offshore. That would make a huge difference in the damage and injuries.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

on fox35 there was a guy in new Smyrna beach that said hes staying because he stayed for the 2004 hurricanes, thats the thinking that someone gets killed

tracks suggest's he is a brave guy looking @ the 900mb the storm will be a high-end major @ the surface.