ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Latest recon pass has 100+kt winds on the NW quad, which is the first time I believe all day that it's been recorded outside the NE eye wall.

[GeneratorPower]

Question is does the intensification change the track?

[Alyono]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

[fci]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

Really think forecasters who live in the area would under-forecast for their own area?

[ronyan]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

I feel fatalities are going to go up very rapidly.
Do you have an opinion on whether it was stronger than 145 mph there?

[WGV]

I am sooo not religious but this is freaky. Hurricane Matthew may make landfall on 10-7-16. Matthew, chapter 10, verse 7 says:

7 As you go, proclaim this message: ‘The kingdom of heaven has come near.’

[GeneratorPower]

Alyono, do you think intensity changes track?

[psyclone]

Question is does the intensification change the track?

Intensification was part of the forecast.

[Evenstar]

I am sooo not religious but this is freaky. Hurricane Matthew may make landfall on 10-7-16. Matthew, chapter 10, verse 7 says:

7 As you go, proclaim this message: ‘The kingdom of heaven has come near.’

My goosebumps have goosebumps. Shizz is about to get real when biblical references start flyin'!

edit: for the record, I'm not religious either.

[stephen23]

Last 4 passes shows a heading of 317.5 degrees

[marionstorm]

I am sooo not religious but this is freaky. Hurricane Matthew may make landfall on 10-7-16. Matthew, chapter 10, verse 7 says:

7 As you go, proclaim this message: ‘The kingdom of heaven has come near.’

Look up Chapter 7 Verse 10 as that is how the Europeans do their dates and the Euro is the better forecast model.

[txwatcher91]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

Do you have a link to this?

With the pressure drop now beginning we will probably see a category 4 in the morning and the possibility of this hitting category 5. As mentioned before the "fist" is always a sign that rapid strengthening is about to begin.

[CrazyC83]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

I feel fatalities are going to go up very rapidly.
Do you have an opinion on whether it was stronger than 145 mph there?

Based on the Recon data 9 hours earlier supporting 130 kt and the improved satellite presentation, I estimate Matthew was 135 kt at Haiti landfall, although an argument could also be made for 140 kt.

[GeneratorPower]

Question is does the intensification change the track?

Intensification was part of the forecast.

Not this early, though?

[Blinhart]

So I understand St. John's County is a mandatory evacuation now.

[ronyan]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

I feel fatalities are going to go up very rapidly.
Do you have an opinion on whether it was stronger than 145 mph there?

Based on the Recon data 9 hours earlier supporting 130 kt and the improved satellite presentation, I estimate Matthew was 135 kt at Haiti landfall, although an argument could also be made for 140 kt.

I think 135 kt also, but not sure if it can be confirmed.

[CrazyC83]

I feel fatalities are going to go up very rapidly.
Do you have an opinion on whether it was stronger than 145 mph there?

Based on the Recon data 9 hours earlier supporting 130 kt and the improved satellite presentation, I estimate Matthew was 135 kt at Haiti landfall, although an argument could also be made for 140 kt.

I think 135 kt also, but not sure if it can be confirmed.

At 0200Z before landfall, there was a 128 kt SFMR and 142 kt FL - those support 130 kt. Its presentation improved after that.

[Alyono]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

I feel fatalities are going to go up very rapidly.
Do you have an opinion on whether it was stronger than 145 mph there?

150 mph is my estimate of Haiti landfall

[Johnny77]

Yes, RI seems to be underway. Satellite image is most impressive.

[1900hurricane]

Saw an areal photo from Haiti

It's Haiyan-like

Do you have a link to this?

With the pressure drop now beginning we will probably see a category 4 in the morning and the possibility of this hitting category 5. As mentioned before the "fist" is always a sign that rapid strengthening is about to begin.

Haiti damage.

 https://twitter.com/ABC/status/783844227838914560