ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-77&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

latest

[Hurrilurker]

I know what recon is telling us and I definitely respect that more than a satellite image but recent IR imagery doesn't appear as impressive to me. Am I missing something?

Well the eye popped on the last few frames.

[SouthFloridawx]

What's the reduction for this?

[NDG]

VDM is 945mb, but 9 mb drop since last recon is still a big pressure drop!!!

[MaineWeatherNut]

A very small update on Matthew and other things I'm keeping track of this morning:
http://theweatherwatch.org/morning-upda ... r-06-2016/

[Hammy]

I forget, since it's been a while since I've analyzed recon reports, but which line is the SFMR reading?

Fourth from right is flight level, third from right is surface, second from right is rainfall, and I believe the last column is reserved for error codes/flags.

[Aric Dunn]

Massive drop 941mb

I know what recon is telling us and I definitely respect that more than a satellite image but recent IR imagery doesn't appear as impressive to me. Am I missing something. If it was strengthening wouldn't we see an increase in deep convection, not a decrease?

Its appearance on satellite appeared to strengthen greatly before, but the winds weren't responding. The winds often take time to catch up, so that's likely what it's doing now.

I agree it's odd that it seems to be so strong when the satellite appearance seems to have degraded some in the last hour or so, but I imagine that it will be temporary.

same thing when it was a cat5.. sat appearance was ragged with a wobbly eye ... dropsonde and recon though kept providing amazing data.

[bahamaswx]

Also note that the pass shows no real sign of double wind maxima. No EWRC on the table right now.

[Alyono]

only good news is the eyewall may miss Nassau. Very bad for Andros Island and Bimini, however

[Johnny77]

What are you guys guessing for winds on 5 am advisory?

[Hurrilurker]

If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.

[Aric Dunn]

if it wobbles a little to the north Nassau is going to have some serious issues.. Icyclone guy is there though.

[bahamaswx]

VDM is 945mb, but 9 mb drop since last recon is still a big pressure drop!!!

That's with 8kt winds, so call it 944.

[NDG]

What are you guys guessing for winds on 5 am advisory?

I'm thinking back up to at least 125 mph if not 130 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess NhC will have to go with 135 on this.. 130 at the minimum.

[NDG]

If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.

If yesterday was chaotic in central FL I cannot imagine people in a couple of hours when they wake up, yesterday they were driving like nuts looking for supplies.

[johngaltfla]

If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.

Friday is too late. The freakout began yesterday as the traffic from the East Coast to West Coast of Florida was INCREDIBLE. Those that heeded the warnings are gone or leaving this morning.

[bahamaswx]

What are you guys guessing for winds on 5 am advisory?

With 99kt SFMR and 131kt FL, I would probably blend it to 105kt.

[Aric Dunn]

Also note that the pass shows no real sign of double wind maxima. No EWRC on the table right now.

again way to early for a ERC. the core just got established .. highly doubt we will see a ERC before landfall. should strengthen/maintain all the way to land.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

These numbers is what you would expect with a pin-eye,i note a poster remarked the eyewall was collapsing you can be happy that person is not writing advisories.