ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7901 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:41 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7902 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:42 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:I know what recon is telling us and I definitely respect that more than a satellite image but recent IR imagery doesn't appear as impressive to me. Am I missing something?

Well the eye popped on the last few frames.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7903 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:42 am

What's the reduction for this?

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7904 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:42 am

VDM is 945mb, but 9 mb drop since last recon is still a big pressure drop!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7905 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:42 am

A very small update on Matthew and other things I'm keeping track of this morning:
http://theweatherwatch.org/morning-upda ... r-06-2016/
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7906 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:43 am

bob rulz wrote:I forget, since it's been a while since I've analyzed recon reports, but which line is the SFMR reading?


Fourth from right is flight level, third from right is surface, second from right is rainfall, and I believe the last column is reserved for error codes/flags.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7907 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:45 am

bob rulz wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Massive drop 941mb


I know what recon is telling us and I definitely respect that more than a satellite image but recent IR imagery doesn't appear as impressive to me. Am I missing something. If it was strengthening wouldn't we see an increase in deep convection, not a decrease?


Its appearance on satellite appeared to strengthen greatly before, but the winds weren't responding. The winds often take time to catch up, so that's likely what it's doing now.

I agree it's odd that it seems to be so strong when the satellite appearance seems to have degraded some in the last hour or so, but I imagine that it will be temporary.


same thing when it was a cat5.. sat appearance was ragged with a wobbly eye ... dropsonde and recon though kept providing amazing data.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7908 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:46 am

Also note that the pass shows no real sign of double wind maxima. No EWRC on the table right now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7909 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:46 am

only good news is the eyewall may miss Nassau. Very bad for Andros Island and Bimini, however
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7910 Postby Johnny77 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:46 am

What are you guys guessing for winds on 5 am advisory?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7911 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:46 am

If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7912 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:47 am

if it wobbles a little to the north Nassau is going to have some serious issues.. Icyclone guy is there though.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7913 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:48 am

NDG wrote:VDM is 945mb, but 9 mb drop since last recon is still a big pressure drop!!!


That's with 8kt winds, so call it 944.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7914 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:48 am

Johnny77 wrote:What are you guys guessing for winds on 5 am advisory?


I'm thinking back up to at least 125 mph if not 130 mph.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7915 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:49 am

I guess NhC will have to go with 135 on this.. 130 at the minimum.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7916 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:49 am

Hurrilurker wrote:If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.


If yesterday was chaotic in central FL I cannot imagine people in a couple of hours when they wake up, yesterday they were driving like nuts looking for supplies.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7917 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:49 am

Hurrilurker wrote:If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.


Friday is too late. The freakout began yesterday as the traffic from the East Coast to West Coast of Florida was INCREDIBLE. Those that heeded the warnings are gone or leaving this morning.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7918 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:50 am

Johnny77 wrote:What are you guys guessing for winds on 5 am advisory?


With 99kt SFMR and 131kt FL, I would probably blend it to 105kt.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7919 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:51 am

bahamaswx wrote:Also note that the pass shows no real sign of double wind maxima. No EWRC on the table right now.

again way to early for a ERC. the core just got established .. highly doubt we will see a ERC before landfall. should strengthen/maintain all the way to land.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#7920 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:51 am

These numbers is what you would expect with a pin-eye,i note a poster remarked the eyewall was collapsing you can be happy that person is not writing advisories.
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