ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Close up radar view of Matthew:

Power will go out with some of those intense bands out front.

[SouthFLTropics]

Using the past flight's recon fixes and the latest you can extrapolate landfall on google earth to around Port St. Lucie. That is 300 miles away so of course it will end up further up or down the coast.

The Euro and GFS have done a very good job withing 24hr window. BTW, to be exact its fixed center is 277 miles from Port St Lucie

Thanks for that wonderful news this morning...You know you're in for a bad day when your city gets mentioned at least twice on one page on S2K.

[CourierPR]

Looking at the Miami radar, does it look like the eye is heading on a more WNW heading? Hopefully it is just a wobble, or my tired eyes seeing things...

doesnt look 320 to me now but its been averaging that over time and they must feel confident the ridge is about done building

anyone ever see them report higher than normal confidence in any disco ever for any time period..

Well, sometimes seeing is believing. In 1999, when Irene hit S. FL, it was progged to pass safely to our west in the GOM. That was being said on the morning of the day it hit us. Later that evening it struck.

[bahamaswx]

The port Nassau webcam showing conditions RAPIDLY deteriorating there. Definite hurricane conditions now.

[AdamFirst]

Matthew cranking now as DMAX approaches - pretty much as I indicated yesterday.
Eye suddenly popping on IR.
He entrained very moist, high-energy air as indicated by the high Theta-E and CAPE values in the Bahamas.
This on top of the high heat content of the water.

Thank you for your advanced insight when it comes to these storms. It's fascinating to see how thunderstorm/severe potential benefits the hurricane as a whole.

[Johnny77]

85 degrees at Miami Intl at 5 am. Can you say high octane?

[eastcoastFL]

I was feeling pretty good about being prepared and ready but now im getting nervous here on the treasure coast. If this thing gets any stronger im not sure whats going to happen.

[johngaltfla]

Using the past flight's recon fixes and the latest you can extrapolate landfall on google earth to around Port St. Lucie. That is 300 miles away so of course it will end up further up or down the coast.

The Euro and GFS have done a very good job withing 24hr window. BTW, to be exact its fixed center is 277 miles from Port St Lucie

Thanks for that wonderful news this morning...You know you're in for a bad day when your city gets mentioned at least twice on one page on S2K.

Good luck over there. This storm has the looks of a strong Cat 4 before reaching the coast and I hope and pray everyone is heeding the warnings.

[AdamFirst]

I was feeling pretty good about being prepared and ready but now im getting nervous here on the treasure coast. If this thing gets any stronger im not sure whats going to happen.

Yep. My folks are committed to staying in the house and hunkering down. We're in for more than what we bargained for though.

[eastcoastFL]

Using the past flight's recon fixes and the latest you can extrapolate landfall on google earth to around Port St. Lucie. That is 300 miles away so of course it will end up further up or down the coast.

The Euro and GFS have done a very good job withing 24hr window. BTW, to be exact its fixed center is 277 miles from Port St Lucie

Thanks for that wonderful news this morning...You know you're in for a bad day when your city gets mentioned at least twice on one page on S2K.

Yah i here ya. Its not looking good for us here.

[eastcoastFL]

I was feeling pretty good about being prepared and ready but now im getting nervous here on the treasure coast. If this thing gets any stronger im not sure whats going to happen.

Yep. My folks are committed to staying in the house and hunkering down. We're in for more than what we bargained for though.

Im starting to think the west coast isn't an option by now. The hotels must be packed.

[AdamFirst]

Andros is essentially flat marshland and New Providence (Nassau) is a little rock in the middle of the water. Matthew's essentially got nothing but warm waters from here on out.

[AdamFirst]

Im starting to think the west coast isn't an option by now. The hotels must be packed.

Yep. My mom lives in Palm Bay (Brevard County) and they were thinking of evacuating west - she called 13 hotels and all were completely booked. Most places going west have no gas either.

I do have a last resort/contingency - my sister lives in Margate down in western Broward, and I'd honestly feel a lot safer down at her place to ride out the storm.

[Laser30033003]

I just don't see how/why it would make the turn to the North.....I see it just coming in and moving across the state.......

[artist]

If the Florida freak out wasn't already on, it sure will be by tomorrow morning. I hope people are getting/taking Friday off to prepare.

they better take today, Thur off to prepare, if they haven't yet. Hubby took off yesterday and we have just a bit left to finish out this morning. We are in north PBC and it is due to hit in the late night/am here, if it hasn't changed since last night.

[eastcoastFL]

Im starting to think the west coast isn't an option by now. The hotels must be packed.

Yep. My mom lives in Palm Bay (Brevard County) and they were thinking of evacuating west - she called 13 hotels and all were completely booked. Most places going west have no gas either.

I do have a last resort/contingency - my sister lives in Margate down in western Broward, and I'd honestly feel a lot safer down at her place to ride out the storm.

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe head towards Miami. My grandmother is in boynton.

[USTropics]

I was feeling pretty good about being prepared and ready but now im getting nervous here on the treasure coast. If this thing gets any stronger im not sure whats going to happen.

Yep. My folks are committed to staying in the house and hunkering down. We're in for more than what we bargained for though.

Im starting to think the west coast isn't an option by now. The hotels must be packed.

Jim Cantore is in Melbourne, Fl. He stated the only available hotels are maybe west in Naples, Fl. He stated you may have to go towards Valdosta/Macon GA to find a hotel to the north. I don't know if that can be confirmed or denied. He also stated he hopes this will only be a cat 4 at landfall.

[SouthFLTropics]

I was feeling pretty good about being prepared and ready but now im getting nervous here on the treasure coast. If this thing gets any stronger im not sure whats going to happen.

Hunker down my friend and be ready for the worst. It's about all we can do at this point.

[GCANE]

Matthew is really tightening up.

Recon measured max winds (129 knots), at a flight level of 8900 ft, just 10.4 nm from the lowest surface-pressure measurement.

Vortex must be lining-up and or expanding vertically.
Possibly the tropopause is gaining height.

(spinning skater pulling in arms analogy)

[eastcoastFL]

Yep. My folks are committed to staying in the house and hunkering down. We're in for more than what we bargained for though.

Im starting to think the west coast isn't an option by now. The hotels must be packed.

Jim Cantore is in Melbourne, Fl. He stated the only available hotels are maybe west in Naples, Fl. He stated you may have to go towards Valdosta/Macon GA to find a hotel to the north. I don't know if that can be confirmed or denied. He also stated he hopes this will only be a cat 4 at landfall.

Ga isn't an option with there being no gas left in the state. I'll have to go south or west.