ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8101 Postby TheHook210 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:38 am

So serious question. Looks like we will get the eye over my house in Merritt island, fl as a cat 4. We boarded up, braced the garage door, cleaned up. Pretty much everything we can do. The house is block house. Do you guys think it will still be there when we get home? Is a cat 4 pretty much garunteed to take the roof off?? What can I expect?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8102 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:38 am

sweetpea wrote:
Frank P wrote:
MGC wrote:Just read the local hurricane statement from Melbourne. It is blunt and to the point. "Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months" I have not read this dire of a local hurricane statement since Katrina.....and we all know what happened there. Get out now if you can.

Most definitely leave, if you have never been in a major storm and you are not leaving because you want the thrill of witnessing a hurricane, you DO NOT want to do this with a major, maybe a Cat 1 fine, but this is going to scare the living hell out of those who are not experienced with such strong storms... if you have any pine trees or other tall trees near your house, expect them to become missiles thru your roof... ground zero will be affected for months, power loss, houses lost, schools shut down, trees and power lines down everywhere, and snakes, did I mention snakes! All you will hear for days is the sound of generators, and you will see those blue tarps covering damaged roofs for weeks because of a shortage of contractors available for repairs, speaking of, it would be smart if you had several large tarps on hand to repair the singles that you are going to lose when you come back to your home, oh and don't forget the looters after the storm.... and as bad as experiencing a major storm will be, the aftermath will even be worse.. take it from someone who has experienced it twice... good luck to all


Great post, I used to live in Palm Coast, FL. Just moved away a couple of years ago. My father in law is still there on the water and refuses to leave his house. He lives on the intercoastal and is about 1.5 miles from the ocean. He is under mandatory evac, but says he isn't budging. I even told him as much as I love storms if we were still living there, I would have gotten the heck out of there yesterday. This one is no joke. I am so scared for everyone in the path of this storm. Praying for him, friends and everyone else in the path of this nasty storm.


Call him one last time and ask him to do something for you:
Take a permanent marker and write his name, SS# and next of kin # on his arm, so they can notify them when they find him after the storm.

Maybe if he believes you are serious, he will get serious. It's almost too late. Just a few more hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8103 Postby Fishing » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:39 am

Praying for all those in his path. ESP Florida. Question I have is what does everyone think he's going to look like (best and worst) by the time he gets to Charleston? I'm still trying to decide whether to stay or go. Local says expect tropical force winds and possible hurricane plus lots of rain. Thanks all and God Bless.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8104 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:40 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 061235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016
A. 06/12:17:10Z
B. 24 deg 40 min N
077 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 109 kt
E. 122 deg 8 nm
F. 217 deg 117 kt
G. 122 deg 8 nm
H. EXTRAP 937 mb
I. 12 C / 3053 m
J. 19 C / 3048 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN WEST
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2714A MATTHEW OB 22
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 100 / 15 NM 11:17:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
;
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8105 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:42 am

FlSteel wrote:GCane,

Been a few years since I have really paid attention to hurricanes. No longer live in JAX but just outside of Charlotte.

Did I read this corrctly:

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 128kts (~ 147.3mph)

Matthew is up to 147 mph winds at the surface?

Thanks


That is what was reported in the last VDM
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... x&latest=1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8106 Postby sweetpea » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:43 am

Michele B wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
Frank P wrote:Most definitely leave, if you have never been in a major storm and you are not leaving because you want the thrill of witnessing a hurricane, you DO NOT want to do this with a major, maybe a Cat 1 fine, but this is going to scare the living hell out of those who are not experienced with such strong storms... if you have any pine trees or other tall trees near your house, expect them to become missiles thru your roof... ground zero will be affected for months, power loss, houses lost, schools shut down, trees and power lines down everywhere, and snakes, did I mention snakes! All you will hear for days is the sound of generators, and you will see those blue tarps covering damaged roofs for weeks because of a shortage of contractors available for repairs, speaking of, it would be smart if you had several large tarps on hand to repair the singles that you are going to lose when you come back to your home, oh and don't forget the looters after the storm.... and as bad as experiencing a major storm will be, the aftermath will even be worse.. take it from someone who has experienced it twice... good luck to all


Great post, I used to live in Palm Coast, FL. Just moved away a couple of years ago. My father in law is still there on the water and refuses to leave his house. He lives on the intercoastal and is about 1.5 miles from the ocean. He is under mandatory evac, but says he isn't budging. I even told him as much as I love storms if we were still living there, I would have gotten the heck out of there yesterday. This one is no joke. I am so scared for everyone in the path of this storm. Praying for him, friends and everyone else in the path of this nasty storm.


Call him one last time and ask him to do something for you:
Take a permanent marker and write his name, SS# and next of kin # on his arm, so they can notify them when they find him after the storm.

Maybe if he believes you are serious, he will get serious. It's almost too late. Just a few more hours.


My husband just got off the phone with him and he is still refusing. He keeps saying he will be fine, he has plenty of wine. My husband told him that might be all he has after this storm. My father in law is a retired NYC police officer and he thinks he is invincible. Very frustrating!!! All we can do is pray for a jog to the right so that the worst winds stay off shore.
Last edited by sweetpea on Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8107 Postby artist » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:44 am

marionstorm wrote:According to the lightning map there was a lightning strike in the eyewall just a few seconds ago. Some more lightning but further away on the periphery. I didn't think hurricanes had lightning.

edit: two now in the eyewall close to each other

twc said lighning in the eye signifies an intensifying hurricane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8108 Postby shawn6304 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:44 am

artist wrote:According to the Gov. , live press conferencePalm Beach will be first to be hit and winds will be 100-150 mph.
2500 national guard have been activated.


I think there will be alot of people in broward who will have issue with that statement.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8109 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:44 am

I will add that due to the angle of approach in the RPM model run, it could make landfall somewhere in either extreme Southern Brevard County or south to near Vero Beach in Northern Saint Lucie County.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8110 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:44 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8111 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:45 am

TheHook210 wrote:So serious question. Looks like we will get the eye over my house in Merritt island, fl as a cat 4. We boarded up, braced the garage door, cleaned up. Pretty much everything we can do. The house is block house. Do .you guys think it will still be there when we get home? Is a cat 4 pretty much garunteed to take the roof off?? What can I expect?


Sounds like you've done everything you can.

Whether the house and/or roof is "still there" is really not a question that can be answered. Sometimes the best built house will just get hit with enough wind (or tornado) and come apart. Other times, some of the most dilapidated homes seem to withstand it!

If it's built to latest building codes, it's better able to withstand the onslaught.

Good luck to you.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8112 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:45 am

GCANE wrote:
FlSteel wrote:GCane,

Been a few years since I have really paid attention to hurricanes. No longer live in JAX but just outside of Charlotte.

Did I read this corrctly:

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 128kts (~ 147.3mph)

Matthew is up to 147 mph winds at the surface?

Thanks


That is what was reported in the last VDM
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... x&latest=1


I think it is worthy to note that there appears to be high helicity currently ahead of Matthew.
I don't know if that will hold up on approach to the coast.
If it does, it could mean a significant threat of tornadoes before landfall.
Keeping an eye on this.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8113 Postby ThetaE » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:46 am

Dropsonde in Matthew's eyewall recorded 133 kt winds 1 mb above the surface :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8114 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:48 am

Core temp up another 1C.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:17:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°40'N 77°30'W (24.6667N 77.5W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 109kts (~ 125.4mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 937mb (27.67 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8115 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:49 am

1-95 crash at SR 520, one lane ugh.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8116 Postby artist » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:49 am

shawn6304 wrote:
artist wrote:According to the Gov. , live press conferencePalm Beach will be first to be hit and winds will be 100-150 mph.
2500 national guard have been activated.


I think there will be alot of people in broward who will have issue with that statement.

He was talking of coming on shore. Will the outer bans hit further south? °Will it be bad? Yes. But he was obviously repeating what the NHC told him. He isn't a met.
I have a son in Broward, but took no offense, understanding his point.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8117 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:50 am

When do we start getting the updates every two hours?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8118 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:51 am

TXNT24 KNES 061206
TCSNTL

A. 14L (MATTHEW)

B. 06/1145Z

C. 24.5N

D. 77.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W FOR DT=6.0. NO EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET=6.0. PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8119 Postby dtwilkin » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:51 am

Fishing wrote:Praying for all those in his path. ESP Florida. Question I have is what does everyone think he's going to look like (best and worst) by the time he gets to Charleston? I'm still trying to decide whether to stay or go. Local says expect tropical force winds and possible hurricane plus lots of rain. Thanks all and God Bless.


Hi Fishing, I'm in Park West and for now, I'm staying put. It sure is a tough call!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8120 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:51 am

Should be a cat 4 now. wonder if they will do a special advisory for being so close to coast.
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