ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Matthew is continuing to deepen at a rapid pace. The pressure has fallen another 2-3mb in 30 or so minutes. Winds are beginning to respond with flight level winds around 140mph. Once clear of Andros Island, I'm afraid it's only going to allow for quicker strengthening. An upper-end Category 4/Lower-end Category 5 (not so "low") is seeming more and more likely. Here's to hoping the winds never fully respond to the pressure falls. For those of you who don't remember the description of a Category 5, the NHC describes them as "catastrophic." Prayers your way, Florida.

[GCANE]

Looks like maybe 2 or 3 hot towers firing off on the SE eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, holy explosive burst of radar..

[jhpigott]

If this current heading shown on radar holds I think the center may wind up closer to West End than Jupiter as Matthew shoots the gap between Grand Bahama and Palm Bch Cty . . . I least I hope so

[FlSteel]

Wonder what the NHC will post for the 11 am update.

[bjackrian]

For reference from Melbourne aviation discussion:

For airport ops reference, here are the forecast times of onset of
TS and HURCN force winds (where applicable) for our aerodromes, in
order of times of onset (give or take an hour). Peak sustained winds
are included for inland airports that are not forecast to reach 64KT
sustained.

34KT 64KT 34KT PEAK SUS
KSUA ~00Z ~05Z MCO ~09Z 50KT
KFPR ~01Z ~06Z ISM ~10Z 43KT
KVRB ~01Z ~06Z SFB ~10Z 61KT
KMLB ~03Z ~09Z LEE ~14Z 40KT
KTIX ~06Z ~12Z
KDAB ~10Z ~16Z

[GCANE]

Matthew is continuing to deepen at a rapid pace. The pressure has fallen another 2-3mb in 30 or so minutes. Winds are beginning to respond with flight level winds around 140mph. Once clear of Andros Island, I'm afraid it's only going to allow for quicker strengthening. An upper-end Category 4/Lower-end Category 5 (not so "low") is seeming more and more likely. Here's to hoping the winds never fully respond to the pressure falls. For those of you who don't remember the description of a Category 5, the NHC describes them as "catastrophic." Prayers your way, Florida.

I mentioned earlier today that outflow is forecasted to pickup as Matthew enters the Gulf Stream.
There are a couple ULLs that will enhance it's equatorward channel then.
I hate to say it, but I agree, Cat 5 maybe likely.

[bahamaswx]

South side of Exuma is stripped completely bare of any vegetation maybe about 10 feet above sea level, so I guess that's about what the surge was.

[dhweather]

Matthew is continuing to deepen at a rapid pace. The pressure has fallen another 2-3mb in 30 or so minutes. Winds are beginning to respond with flight level winds around 140mph. Once clear of Andros Island, I'm afraid it's only going to allow for quicker strengthening. An upper-end Category 4/Lower-end Category 5 (not so "low") is seeming more and more likely. Here's to hoping the winds never fully respond to the pressure falls. For those of you who don't remember the description of a Category 5, the NHC describes them as "catastrophic." Prayers your way, Florida.

That has been a concern of mine, there will be a window of opportunity for rapid intensification as Matthew clears the islands and emerges over the gulf stream. Add in that this could run up the coastline, and that is a recipe for bad things.

[Exalt]

This is 100% getting retired correct?

[AdamFirst]

What'll be the strength at 11 AM, you guys think?

[tolakram]

Eye starting to clear out. I hope folks are taking this storm seriously.

[Sanibel]

Is the failure of the winds to keep up with pressure a trend or is Matthew waiting for one final intensity surge?


Is the hurricane wedged in a synoptic gap and unable to totally spin-up?

[windnrain]

Eye is clearing

[Exalt]

What'll be the strength at 11 AM, you guys think?

135-140 mph, which leaves me worried about an easy ramp up back to Cat 5 after it clears Andros.

[Aric Dunn]

is there seriously not continuous recon flights? there is going to be a 2 hour gap here.

[CopyGator]

Is the failure of the winds to keep up with pressure a trend or is Matthew waiting for one final intensity surge?

Winds always lag pressure drops. It varies by how MUCH lag there is

[Exalt]

Is the failure of the winds to keep up with pressure a trend or is Matthew waiting for one final intensity surge?


Is the hurricane wedged in a synoptic gap and unable to totally spin-up?

Winds will eventually catch up, especially during RI.

[dhweather]

This is 100% getting retired correct?

Nothing is guaranteed, but with a significant death toll and a great deal of damage already, odds are yes, the name Matthew will be retired.

[txwatcher91]

I know steering charts are static and not that reliable but they do indicate a sub 940mb storm would take a track just offshore, similar to what the NAM shows, while a 940-949mb storm would probably make landfall. IF that's correct then a stronger storm might be good for Florida if it helps it turn north sooner and stay further from the coast. The eye is wrapping storms nicely on radar and satellite.