ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

Based off some posts now, it seems that the XTRP is the most reliable forecast "model".

[Noles2016]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

It would have to move in a straight line, or bend further west, to come ashore south of Jacksonville--and it's expected to start curving east south of there. It's been a steady movement when you average it since about 7-8am.



Extrapolated short and longer term movement--looks to be going east of the forecast points, but expected to curve more north before the point the extrapolation would bring it onshore.

Your blue line isn't in the center of the first fix, so the angle is off. Fail.

[KC7NEC]

Seriously people.....

[fci]

Not certain this is correct. Don't assume anything yet.

Also at 2:00 PM, Matthew was 125 ESE of WPB and moving NW.
That's a good thing for PBC

If it lasts. Can't say that yet.

Really no reason to not expect the storm to track where the NHC says it will for the next 12 hours.

[JPmia]

Has anyone here viewed the data on the ridge and whether or not it is getting stronger, which could nudge it closer to the coast?

[windnrain]

Y'all... you can't extrapolate based on the small eye if the big eye is taking over.

[StormHunter72]

Hammy is spot on in my opinion

[fci]

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

Well that's a pretty bold statement Hammy, but I sure hope you are right for the great state of Florida, that would make a tremendous difference if it can stay off the coast 80 mile to the east, which would keep all the hurricane force sustained winds out to sea, but man I just don't see the NNW motion you are delineating... still looks to me on average NW... one wobble to the west later on down the road could have even more catastrophic implications...

True, but I think, at least right now we have two things working in our favor: 1. The storm is not intensifying and satellite presentation looks like weakening could be occurring and 2. I definitely think it looks to be moving more north than west. I can see what looks to be a smoothed out northerly curve happening. I'm actually not seeing 'wobbles' which are more 'stair stepping' like hard left and right moves. It seems pretty smoothly curving. I know this certainly doesn't mean that serious and damaging weather does not affect the east coast but I'm beginning to think it won't be as bad as it could have been. Just my two cents.

Given it was SE of West Palm for quite a while and now is ESE of West Palm; that would indicate more of a NNW heading at this time.

[Nimbus]

When should we see Hurricane force winds in Boca Raton. Very quiet here at the moment. No one predicted this to be so Far East according to the latest model runs of the gfs and Euro.

K7 is a pretty healthy rain band but maybe not quite hurricane force winds.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/784097269998026752

[StormHunter72]

Since I joined Hammy has been the most accurate. Just saying

[hurricaneCW]

He's not going to miss by 80 miles, both gfs and Euro have actually trended slightly further west. The only difference is that a landfall would occur a bit further north than originally forecast. You can't use wobbles to make such a prediction.

[Portastorm]

Since I joined Hammy has been the most accurate. Just saying

You've said this twice now. We heard the first time. Post it again and you get a vacation.

[FLpanhandle91]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Sorry Hammy, your statement is not horrible but it's a good example of something that needlessly riles up folks looking for information.

Everyone

THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR AMATEUR PROCLAMATIONS.

We are in storm mode and those kinds of statements just fill the thread with questions or arguments and don't add any value. Everyone worries that someone reading something like this may make a bad decision based on an amateur analysis. Please just avoid making these kinds of statements.

Soooo.... "shut up kids the adults are talking"...?

You need to very clearly establish guidelines on how users need to post if you're going to claim we should not comment on how we see things going. The whole point of this forum is open discussion. This is not an official tool for planning evacuations and preparations. Anyone who uses comments on a weather forum as their sole resource for preparing is at fault, not the poster discussing tropical weather in a tropical weather forum.

[Frank P]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

It would have to move in a straight line, or bend further west, to come ashore south of Jacksonville--and it's expected to start curving east south of there. It's been a steady movement when you average it since about 7-8am.



Extrapolated short and longer term movement--looks to be going east of the forecast points, but expected to curve more north before the point the extrapolation would bring it onshore.

As I'm sure you are aware you can't extrapolate future direction of hurricanes based on prior movement relative to any degree of accuracy... but as I've stated earlier I sure hope you are right

[AutoPenalti]

Since I joined Hammy has been the most accurate. Just saying

Oh well, there's always next week when it loops back somewhere in Florida

[hurricaneCW]

Since I joined Hammy has been the most accurate. Just saying

Hammy didn't even think Matthew would even be a strong hurricane using what happened with Hermine and Karl to justify that prediction.

[Frank P]

 https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/784097269998026752

wow, that would be catastrophic for Merritt Island... geesh...

[HurrMark]

This can't be right...
2PM 25.7°N 78.4°W
3PM 25.8°N 78.3°W

[Weatherboy1]

Certainly PBC is not in the clear yet. But the radar trend of the past few hours seems to be more north than west. The models showing a very, very close approach (or a direct landfall) are going to have a hard time verifying unless we get some significant westerly wobbles/a turn soon. Again, we will see.