ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Here's what I see happening:

Hammy is correct that the overall movement of the inner eyewall last few hours has been moving east of the forecast points. However, looking at the new, developing outer eyewall it appears the motion is on track. It's not unusual for the inner eye to be jerked around by the outer during an EWRC.

[Aric Dunn]

Extrapolated short and longer term movement--looks to be going east of the forecast points.

We have a winner!

Yes, this has been the trend all morning into this afternoon. That said, the ridge could still nudge it west. Every mile counts when it's paralleling the coast like this.

as well as wobbles which is what it looks like it is back to the NW... however because of the ERC its going to start wobbling all over the place.

[leanne_uk]

It is so frustrating to see people not paying attention to pro mets and the NHC at times like this.
I'm over in the UK and I feel like screaming at my phone.

Now don't get me wrong, I love the experienced members inputs and some of their expertise is one of the things that makes this forum great.... BUT I will say this, although there are disclaimers at the bottom of most posts, I do not feel they are clear enough and they quite frankly get ignored because of this.

I for one do not read the disclaimers (more so because I know who is and isn't pro) but some newer members may very well just be reading what had been written in the new post and be totally over looking the disclaimer.
That is why people are getting frustrated and annoyed.... if people are just reading the posts and not the rest, they may get misinformed and make decisions based on that.

I urge all readers to check at the bottom of posts and take in the disclaimers.... they are there for a reason.

Right now I've chucked in my 1p worth.... everyone please stay safe. You are in my thoughts and Prayers as Matthew approaches.

[SapphireSea]

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

It would have to move in a straight line, or bend further west, to come ashore south of Jacksonville--and it's expected to start curving east south of there. It's been a steady movement when you average it since about 7-8am.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/22VTelI.png

Extrapolated short and longer term movement--looks to be going east of the forecast points, but expected to curve more north before the point the extrapolation would bring it onshore.

As I'm sure you are aware you can't extrapolate future direction of hurricanes based on prior movement relative to any degree of accuracy... but as I've stated earlier I sure hope you are right

This would be true if this was being 100% interpreted and being given as a forecast of some kind. There is an undeniable eastward, albeit very slight to this storm over the long term. XTRAPs are even looked at by pros and put on model plots to help pros moderate short term model solutions.

Honestly, the lash Hammy got is uncalled for and while I am not very vocal on this forum I do frequent it and have been even when it was nascent. This is a discussion board as stated, not a live wall of NHC declarations.

In any case, the further East Adjustments may not do much due to the wider eye and eye wall.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is nearly there for first pass.

[ronjon]

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island.

[Portastorm]

Here's what I see happening:

Hammy is correct that the overall movement of the inner eyewall last few hours has been moving east of the forecast points. However, looking at the new, developing outer eyewall it appears the motion is on track. It's not unusual for the inner eye to be jerked around by the outer during an EWRC.

You folks want examples on how we mods/admins prefer comment during a crisis time like this? Well, here's a good example for you. well done, Hypercane_Kyle.

[znel52]

Hammy said in his post that even though he believed it would miss FL to STILL treat it as a potential landfall if you are in the cone. What could possibly be wrong with that? Apparently I don't understand what the word 'discussion' means. If people can't comprehend what he said I feel sorry for them.

[meriland23]

This thing doesn't look to be lulling in terms of strength, despite the potential second eye

[Michele B]

Just checking in here from Vero Beach, FL. We are located about 12-15 miles SW inland from the island. Our house is shuttered; we will deploy inside reinforcement to the garage door as soon as the day progresses. Our supplies are stocked, and we have a whole-house generator. I'm very anxious about the reality of Cat 4 hurricane force winds, no matter how prepared we are. This I my fourth hurricane since moving to FL in 2000, although I lived in southern Palm Beach County before moving to Vero Beach in 2013. Wilma was dangerous, but I understand that Matthew can be devastating. I'll check in again on S2K as communications allow. Please keep everyone along the east central FL coast in positive energy. I am open to miracles!

Props to you for being so well prepared! We wish all the positive energy, good karma, and miracles your way (and to your fellow Floridians)

Yes, you sound very prepared. That said, however, keep in mind a SAFE place to go in your home if the roof lets go or the home's perimeter is breached (such as some thing very large comes crashing through your window coverings - it can happen). If that were to happen, have a place to go to - like a hallway or windowless room on the interior of the home (or even into your bathtub if it's not filled with water). Have pillows or mattresses or other "coverings" to place over yourself and your family to protect you from flying glass.

[bob rulz]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Sorry Hammy, your statement is not horrible but it's a good example of something that needlessly riles up folks looking for information.

Everyone

THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR AMATEUR PROCLAMATIONS.

We are in storm mode and those kinds of statements just fill the thread with questions or arguments and don't add any value. Everyone worries that someone reading something like this may make a bad decision based on an amateur analysis. Please just avoid making these kinds of statements.

Soooo.... "shut up kids the adults are talking"...?

You need to very clearly establish guidelines on how users need to post if you're going to claim we should not comment on how we see things going. The whole point of this forum is open discussion. This is not an official tool for planning evacuations and preparations. Anyone who uses comments on a weather forum as their sole resource for preparing is at fault, not the poster discussing tropical weather in a tropical weather forum.

That is not how it works.

Can we just flat-out disallow any kind of "my gut feeling says this" kinds of posts? It is extremely irresponsible and misleading. I really appreciate the activity of this forum, but the more of a threat it is, the more people will be making these kinds of "gut feeling" proclamations.

THIS IS STILL WITHIN THE CONE. There was ALWAYS the possibility that it could stay offshore and the NHC has made that very clear in their statements. BUT SHORT TERM MOVEMENTS DO NOT MEAN IT'S GOING TO MISS THE FORECAST POINTS. HURRICANE TRACKING IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.

Remember, Hurricane Charley made a hard right turn just hours before landfall when it was expected to go further up the coast. It also intensified from a category 2 to a category 4 in a single advisory. How many people were calling an all clear for Port Charlotte at the time?

[ronjon]

I think we need to focus on the outer eyewall motion which now appears to be wobbling back W-NW. Eventually this will contract as it heads toward shore.

[StormHunter72]

Hammy said in his post that even though he believed it would miss FL to STILL treat it as a potential landfall if you are in the cone. What could possibly be wrong with that? Apparently I don't understand what the word 'discussion' means. If people can't comprehend what he said I feel sorry for them.

I agree

[ronyan]

The old inner core has a bit of floating appearance on radar within the outer eyewall. It appears the outer ring is rotating faster but we'll see when the recon gets in there.

[AutoPenalti]

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island.

Wow.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/784097269998026752

wow, that would be catastrophic for Merritt Island... geesh...

GOES-R is on the launch pad too.

http://www.goes-r.gov/

[fci]

Certainly PBC is not in the clear yet. But the radar trend of the past few hours seems to be more north than west. The models showing a very, very close approach (or a direct landfall) are going to have a hard time verifying unless we get some significant westerly wobbles/a turn soon. Again, we will see.

Looking a bit better for you in Jupiter and even better for us in Lake Worth.
Still a monster though and we will get pretty slammed, your area more than mine.
Good luck!

[SapphireSea]

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island.

Wow.

I would have expected more if it was within the Northern Eyewall. Certainly, however there have been other correberating reports that did suggest it was as intense as stated by NHC. One must also remember that wind products are intended to be interpreted as an over water wind speed and direction with no obstructions or funneling.

[Aric Dunn]

winds increasing fast on grand bahama... and its just scraping the edge of that outer eyewall. going to get crazy there in the next few hours..

[StormHunter72]

Just saying if people side with a non hit they get flack. Curious of why this is???