ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Soonercane]

So this thing should start rapidly weakening soon due to EWRC? Seems to still be kind of strong based on recon.

[bob rulz]

Yes, back to Matthew. I understand it's been a long time since a hurricane of this magnitude threatened anywhere in the United States so things are going to get a little crazy and maybe hard to control at times here. The moderators appear to be doing the best they can, I appreciate your guys' work in these busy times. I'll try to refrain from fueling the debate any further.

The formation of the outer eyewall seemed to have come on very quickly. I feel like it's possible for one to be completed in 12 hours, just unlikely, and either way, it surely doesn't matter much in terms of overall impact. It's a huge storm either way, and it won't affect surge or rainfall rates, and although it may lessen the most intense winds, it will also spread them out over a larger area. So is it possible for it be completed that quickly? Or is there just no way to know because of how poorly understood EWRC's are in general?

[curtadams]

Extrapolated pressure 936mb

Edit: 121kt FL, 107kt SFMR. Mostly holding steady

Pretty impressive to hold steady with this large eyewall replacement.

One phenomenon we haven't seen for a while is stable multiple eyewalls, but it happens with some of these deep long-lived storms. Katrina had 3(!) wind maxima right before she came in.

[dukeblue219]

So this thing should start rapidly weakening soon due to EWRC? Seems to still be kind of strong based on recon.

No. It could just maintain its current strength right through landfall. It could weaken a little bit, or even a lot. But there's definitely no reason to assume it "should start rapidly weakening." EWRC are probably the hardest thing about cyclones to forecast.

[EquusStorm]

Got some lightning in the northern inner eyewall according to Radarscope. Honestly it doesn't seem to be dissipating that fast. I honestly wonder if it might indeed become one of the infamous stable multiple eyewall storms.

[Exalt]

So this thing should start rapidly weakening soon due to EWRC? Seems to still be kind of strong based on recon.

On the contrary, ERC most of the time just means slight weakening/instability during the cycle, if the storm is still in conducive conditions it's likely that it will still strengthen. Rapid weakening isn't remotely forecasted anywhere on any model or any weather forecast site out there until landfall.

[jlauderdal]

thats more intense than anything happening in broward county right now...local media really struggling finding something to cover

WSVN has Steve Shapiro, the sports reporter, on Fort Lauderdale Beach passing out hats to people still on the beach

Well, isnt that special. LOL. Meanwhile, on South Beach....it is just fine.......Folks are enjoying the day...

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/sou ... rida_5366/

nbc needs to get there and pass out hats....hopefully our neighbors to the north get the same effects we do which so far are very minimal

[Alyono]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

What might this mean for impacts along the coast?

higher surge farther north

[bob rulz]

EWRC may indicate modest weakening, at most, but a larger windfield, and potentially larger surge as well. It could potentially even make it worse for the Florida coast.

[Nate-Gillson]

Slightly off topic, but I'm noting birds trapped in Matthew's tiny eye. It is evident by the fuzz in the middle of the eye.

[Steve]

Agreed. We have lots of folks who either contribute, lurk or both. They do take almost every post to heart and have based their decisions on such. Hence, the disclaimer.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

No. Read the board. The disclaimer is useless, legally and otherwise. People just need to use common sense and specify things in a manner that is respectful instead of authoritarian. She may be right, she may not be. Just don't be cocky about it and things will be fine. This is nothing but a tool and the place we all hang for storms. That's all it should be. Get your info from the NOAA/NWS. Everyone over the age of 10 ought to know this by now. I'm done arguing the points. Let's do the storm. And if someone puts reasoning behind what they thing rather than just saying it (e.g., I think it's going to miss point x because of y as opposed to hey woo, all clear here!), things would be better. No one on here is a dummy, though some have hard heads.

I know. I know. I was just trying to simplify it...for the folks...

LOL. I was pontificating a little but not at you. You already know that.

Regarding the radar, some gaps (moat as someone said) obvious between bands. Lucky ERC near landfall MAY make this slightly less worse than what might have been. I'm interested to see how it fills in if it can. Also, looks like waves and waves of rain aren't going to stop anytime soon.

[Soonercane]

So this thing should start rapidly weakening soon due to EWRC? Seems to still be kind of strong based on recon.

On the contrary, ERC most of the time just means slight weakening/instability during the cycle, if the storm is still in conducive conditions it's likely that it will still strengthen. Rapid weakening isn't remotely forecasted anywhere on any model or any weather forecast site out there until landfall.

Ok so it will just take a little time for the inner eyewall to be "choked" from its moisture source by the outer eyewall? After that the wind field should expand a little and the max winds weaken to like 90-100 mph right?

[johngaltfla]

So this thing should start rapidly weakening soon due to EWRC? Seems to still be kind of strong based on recon.

No. It could just maintain its current strength right through landfall. It could weaken a little bit, or even a lot. But there's definitely no reason to assume it "should start rapidly weakening." EWRC are probably the hardest thing about cyclones to forecast.

Plus Matt is getting ready to hit some nice warm bath water very soon. Recon is what to watch along with NHC updates.

[dukeblue219]

So this thing should start rapidly weakening soon due to EWRC? Seems to still be kind of strong based on recon.

On the contrary, ERC most of the time just means slight weakening/instability during the cycle, if the storm is still in conducive conditions it's likely that it will still strengthen. Rapid weakening isn't remotely forecasted anywhere on any model or any weather forecast site out there until landfall.

Ok so it will just take a little time for the inner eyewall to be "choked" from its moisture source by the outer eyewall? After that the wind field should expand a little and the max winds weaken to like 90-100 mph right?

No. There is no reason to believe that which I am aware of. Can I ask where you are getting that information?

[fci]

So, is there anything clear about an EWR regarding whether there is an expansion of the area that gets Hurricane force winds during the EWR?
Pretty important stuff for those of us on the cusp of the Hurricane Force winds which "Were" extending 60 miles from the center.
Any Pro Mets or informed people who can shed some light?
PLEASE NO "GUT FEELINGS" PLEASE.

[Aric Dunn]

NE outer eyewall. around 90 kt winds.. should increase as it contracts.

[1900hurricane]

that is one weak secondary wind max from the aircraft data

Isn't this expected at this point? The outer eyewall hasn't existed for very long yet.

[Soonercane]

On the contrary, ERC most of the time just means slight weakening/instability during the cycle, if the storm is still in conducive conditions it's likely that it will still strengthen. Rapid weakening isn't remotely forecasted anywhere on any model or any weather forecast site out there until landfall.

Ok so it will just take a little time for the inner eyewall to be "choked" from its moisture source by the outer eyewall? After that the wind field should expand a little and the max winds weaken to like 90-100 mph right?

No. There is no reason to believe that which I am aware of. Can I ask where you are getting that information?

I believe one of the posters here (who has provided good information in the past) I think his username is 1900storms, mentioned that the inner eyewall was completely closed off, and that this would likely be a Cat 2 at landfall (or closest approach if it stays offshore).

[GCANE]

From Miss Piggy

[Hurricaneman]

might weaken to 120 to 130mph but will if it has time restrengthen