ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

http://hint.fm/wind/

Not sure of the accuracy by might be interesting to watch as it moves closer to FL.

[stephen23]

Seems as if the outer eyewall is contracting fairly quickly. For pro mets this would cause an increase in wind speed correct? If I'm understanding right the more this contracts the sharper the pressure gradient and therefore the higher the wind speed. Am I right on my understanding?

[Alyono]

eyewall is now over Freeport

[Aric Dunn]

It's missing its earlier forecast point to the east. All day the floater map had a forecast point just west of Grand Bahama but now it's clear the eye is going to pass over the island right around Freeport.

Its just from the inner eye rotating around in the outer eye.. now its moving back westerly so it will just back on that track

[NDG]

Interesting wind visualization



Found this at Wunderground blog. Don't know the original source

The only thing is that the eye is no where it is currently is which is just south of Freeport.

[Exalt]

Interesting wind visualization



Found this at Wunderground blog. Don't know the original source

That would be windyty.com, nice site for wind visuals, they utilize the GFS and the Euro for forecasts, you can climb about two weeks ahead and see what things might look like. I'd give it a look.

[Sanibel]

I don't know the name of the island just in front of Matt but do we think it will deflect it more westward as it approaches or
goes over it?

NHC has been very accurate. I would follow them. Their track has been fairly accurate so far.

Grand Bahama. Should get a pretty good hurricane hit either way.

[SapphireSea]

It's missing its earlier forecast point to the east. All day the floater map had a forecast point just west of Grand Bahama but now it's clear the eye is going to pass over the island right around Freeport.

Its just from the inner eye rotating around in the outer eye.. now its moving back westerly so it will just back on that track

I wouldn't track the inner eye much anymore. The outer eyewall will contract and dominate the inner.

[ConvergenceZone]

Too bad Meteorologist DeltaDog no longer posts here. I guess I'll have to message him on Facebook to get his thoughts on the Storm

[KC7NEC]

Interesting wind visualization



Found this at Wunderground blog. Don't know the original source

Here you go: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-77.92,29.56,1913

[ozonepete]

Interesting wind visualization

Found this at Wunderground blog. Don't know the original source

It comes from this awesome site: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,35.38,339
Click on the word earth in lower left corner to play.

[ZX12R]

Looks like inner eye starting to move almost due west past few frames?? Especially when you speed animation up.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Perhaps a wobble. Something that stuck out to me though.

Yes, inner wall took a good sidestep west. We'll see if the secondary follows.

[Exalt]

Interesting wind visualization



Found this at Wunderground blog. Don't know the original source

It comes from this awesome site: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,35.38,339
Click on the word earth in lower left corner to play.

While earth.nullschool.net is a nice site as well, it's actually from Windyty.com

[ronyan]

Interesting wind visualization

Found this at Wunderground blog. Don't know the original source

It comes from this awesome site: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,35.38,339
Click on the word earth in lower left corner to play.

Wow, that's better than what I posted.

[NDG]

Winds have already switched from the NW in Miami and Ft Lauderdale, I doubt you will see stronger winds than what you have already seen, IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Inner wall is going west for the same reasons it looked like it was going N-NNW earlier; outer eyewall is causing the inner eyewall to oscillate like a gyro.

[KBBOCA]

Just came across this rapid scan IR link.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

Definitely looks like cooler cloud tops, better organization(??) in last few frames. I'm a total amateur, however, so I'd appreciate a met explaining what is happening here.

[ozonepete]

It's missing its earlier forecast point to the east. All day the floater map had a forecast point just west of Grand Bahama but now it's clear the eye is going to pass over the island right around Freeport.

Its just from the inner eye rotating around in the outer eye.. now its moving back westerly so it will just back on that track

Looks to me like the ST ridge to its north is eroding a little more quickly than originally forecast by the models and this has already taken a slight shift eastward of the forecast track. If that continues eastern Florida will have dodged a bullet. Let's hope so.

[Hammy]

Inner wall is going west for the same reasons it looked like it was going N-NNW earlier; outer eyewall is causing the inner eyewall to oscillate like a gyro.

Is this similar to what happened with Wilma in 2005, the eye essentially rotating around the edge of the outer eyewall?

[swampgator92]

The inner eye wall is going bye-bye as we speak. It's rotating due west and then it will go southwest and be absorbed into the outer eyewall. Look at the last few frames.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes