ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Hopefully he is scaring some sense into the ones who are trying to stay. Makes sense to me.

"And your kids will die."

We watched it ! It was a great line, hoping to get people's attention.

It also sounded a little like he was suffering some PTSD from his Katrina reporting....

js

[ZX12R]

I contributed late last night while I was drinking. I hope I didn't contribute thousands of dollars.

You did...

  Help support Storm2K!

Wonderful. At least it wasn't wasted.

By the way. Where is my "S2K Supporter" moniker?

[1900hurricane]

I don't think the inner eyewall is going anywhere within the next twelve hours at least. If anything, it looks like the outer eyewall has lost a little bit of definition while trying to unevenly contract.

[swampgator92]

I don't think the inner eyewall is going anywhere within the next twelve hours at least. If anything, it looks like the outer eyewall has lost a little bit of definition while trying to unevenly contract.

So do you think the inner eyewall will "win"? The outer eyewall will just contract and fill in the gaps?

[ozonepete]

So, someone earlier may have brought this up and if so, I apologize. The other day when Nicole formed, it was stated quite vehemently that she was not strong enough to effect the ridging ahead of Matthew. Now that she is a hurricane, is she strong enough?

It's not just strength. It's size. Nicole is a lot smaller than Matthew. So it's no surprise that no models show Nicole "pumping up the ridge." And btw, "pumping up the ridge" is way overblown on this site. It is a fairly rare effect of very strong hurricanes, usually when they came from Cape Verde and are recurving around the western edge of the ridge.

[SapphireSea]

Looks like people in SFL are pissed off and have become completely complacent.

Comments like "I did all this for nothing", "I bought all his food" "news always hypes up storms" "I will never believe another news channel again" "next hurricane will be a cat 5 and they will hype it up again and then it gets close and steers away"

And this is the effect that I did not want when they started hyping this up, and I have been vehemently against such language being used. Especially for the zones where it was NOT expected to directly to impact. (Miami-Dade Chances were < 5%). Squalls and bands and tornadic activity can be dangerous, but the expectation should have been set lower with more "precotionary" tones. Staying off the road and getting non-perishable in case of power outage was appropriate. Boarding up and creating a bunker in Dade/Broward was inappropriate and the response is now coming in kind.

That being said, the expected zone for landfall/closest approach should still take it seriously.

[KC7NEC]

Friends, I need some advice here. My mother-in-law (almost 90 years old) lives by herself in a home near (but not on) the St. Johns River in Jacksonville. It's a brick home but built well before the Andrew standards. She has refused our pleas to evacuate but now is at the point where she admits that she doesn't want to "inconvenience" us. We live in Sarasota and it takes between 4 and 5 hours to drive to her home. We can leave tonight and pick her up and be back in Sarasota before dawn tomorrow. Will I be able to get gas on the way back and will the weather deteriorate too badly for us to do this?

Areas along the St. Johns are expected to get 9'-11' not INCHES FEET of Storm Surge. You would have to look on the inundation maps to see how close her home is but I would say get her out of there. Even if her house is fine she may be alone in the dark for days or weeks

[ZX12R]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Hopefully he is scaring some sense into the ones who are trying to stay. Makes sense to me.

"And your kids will die."

We watched it ! It was a great line, hoping to get people's attention.

It also sounded a little like he was suffering some PTSD from his Katrina reporting....

js

Shep is not right in the head.

[bob rulz]

I was going to say, that inner eyewall still looks strong and healthy to me. I'm not sure what people have been looking at to say otherwise.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Has anyone else noted that the 18z GFS run has Matthew staying off the coast until about Georgetown SC, and making the turn farther north than the earlier runs?

[dhweather]

If you extrapolate the last 40 minutes of movement, West Palm Beach would be in the cross hairs. NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN.

But as the current wobble shows, these things in fact wobble and it is impossible to exactly pinpoint the path or landfall.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[SapphireSea]

So, someone earlier may have brought this up and if so, I apologize. The other day when Nicole formed, it was stated quite vehemently that she was not strong enough to effect the ridging ahead of Matthew. Now that she is a hurricane, is she strong enough?

It's not just strength. It's size. Nicole is a lot smaller than Matthew. So it's no surprise that no models show Nicole "pumping up the ridge." And btw, "pumping up the ridge" is way overblown on this site. It is a fairly rare effect of very strong hurricanes, usually when they came from Cape Verde and are recurving around the western edge of the ridge.

Thanks for the further clarification on that ozonepete. I believe that most storms can raise 300mb+ heights from what I obserevd. But only the most intense storm's steering is influenced by the change of heights of that layer? I suppose if 850mb-500mb continues to have a trough, a storm would still be influenced by it despite upper ridging becoming better pronunced?

[swampgator92]

Something is clearly happening and FAST the last hour on the radar.

All the "gaps" are filling in and lots of new bands developing.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[ZX12R]

I was going to say, that inner eyewall still looks strong and healthy to me. I'm not sure what people have been looking at to say otherwise.

Earlier, at least on radar, the inner wall migrated out close to the secondary, but now seems to be trying to re-establish itself. So, I'm lost now.

[loon]

wow, the outer eye is contracting so fast on radar.. what is going on?

also, landfall prediction is Melbourne.

-loon

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

presentation looks a gnarly cat4ish.

[Sanibel]

Lining-up for one well-defined intensification eye over the Gulf Stream prior to landfall?

[Michele B]

WSVN saying Broward has dodge a HUGE bullet.

They have! this thing is as bad as Andrew was....and it tracked far enough north that Broward won't have to experience the eye or anything near it.

[blp]

Something is clearly happening and FAST the last hour on the radar.

All the "gaps" are filling in and lots of new bands developing.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

It looks to be bouncing inside the outer eyewall. Just like it went N to NNW earlier it is bouncing the other way now. The outer eyewall is contracting while the inner eye wall is expanding. I think the replacement cycle is underway.