ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

So cool to see this happen.

[KBBOCA]

Slide around Grand Bahama?

[ZX12R]

So for those thinking bad decisions were made, or things were hyped, I'd like you to put yourself in the shoes of an emergency manager who has to make these decisions.

I made a storm page where I posted recent model runs, and previous runs for the GFS and ECMWF.

app.php/page/StormTracking

If it was your job to make the call, what would you do? How long would you wait? What would you do for farther up the coast? Please don't answer, I just want people to consider the possibilities. A hurricane wobbles, it never follows a straight line. A wobble in the middle of the ocean is nothing, a wobble close to shore means landfall. Emergency management is a tough and thankless job, give these folks some credit.

All reasonable thinking people will have already understood this. There will always be complainers and naysayers to deal with.

[WPBWeather]

West, so far anyway.

[Michele B]

And now a WNW jog.

It's almost as if Matthew is just avoiding land at all cost now.

Yes. Like it KNOWS land will influence its strength. Strangest storm I ever saw....

[stephen23]

935 mb latest pass?

[HenkL]

Recon: 935 extrapolated

[Frank P]

repost, for those interested in seeing the latest live streaming news update from Orlando, this site and their WX forecasters are doing a great job... been watching all day... fascinating.. lost of weather updates and live shots from the coast... http://www.wftv.com/watch-live

[gpickett00]

Slide around Grand Bahama?
http://i.imgur.com/dMab8zW.gif

Where is that radar from? Can you share a link?

[MrJames]

Newbie here. Could experts chime in on how to read this shear map. What impact could this have on Matthew?

[Raebie]

Has anyone else noted that the 18z GFS run has Matthew staying off the coast until about Georgetown SC, and making the turn farther north than the earlier runs?

No, and I wouldn't have known because everyone is focused strictly on Florida. The model thread has gone to hell (sorry, I'm frustrated).

There are a TON of people in NC that have assumed this will essentially be a non-event for them. By the time they find out differently, it might be too late. I know the discussion thread is going to be focused on FL, but it sure would be nice if the model thread was a little more far sighted for those of us who aren't in Florida.

[HurrMark]

Has anyone else noted that the 18z GFS run has Matthew staying off the coast until about Georgetown SC, and making the turn farther north than the earlier runs?

Yes, we're all looking at it and taking notice. We need to wait for a lot more model runs later tonight to see if it's really meaningful. You have to find a trend and consensus in most of not all of the models and the actual data before changing the forecast.

I don't think I would put much stock in the FL forecast because it missed the 6 hour point by 2 hours. We will see about further up the coast...

[Hurrilurker]

It looks like that outer eyewall is making a b-line for West Palm Beach.

Really? Granted, I'm just eyeballing it, but to me it looks like the b-line is more like Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral, much more north.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Going to be sending all my good thoughts positivity prayers to you all on here affected by this storm. Stay safe everyone.

[KBBOCA]

haven't really been looking at models for the last 6 hours or so... focused on the "NOW" of the storm. But 18Z GFS seems to show a big change for NC / VA???

[bqknight]

When will Florida start inhibiting strengthening for Matthew? How close would the center needs to be.

[jlauderdal]

So for those thinking bad decisions were made, or things were hyped, I'd like you to put yourself in the shoes of an emergency manager who has to make these decisions.

I made a storm page where I posted recent model runs, and previous runs for the GFS and ECMWF.

app.php/page/StormTracking

If it was your job to make the call, what would you do? How long would you wait? What would you do for farther up the coast? Please don't answer, I just want people to consider the possibilities. A hurricane wobbles, it never follows a straight line. A wobble in the middle of the ocean is nothing, a wobble close to shore means landfall. Emergency management is a tough and thankless job, give these folks some credit.

nhc, miami and broward did great...they had everyone prepared as they should...i spent hours yesterday hanging panels and would do the same again...it was a real threat to cause major damage here..nhc nailed it for miami dade with the ts warning..that storm jogs west today instead of north its different story as to effects and there is no way to expect anyone to fine tune it that well..now its jogging west and if that continues a few more hours than palm beach gets big effects

[KBBOCA]

Slide around Grand Bahama?
http://i.imgur.com/dMab8zW.gif

Where is that radar from? Can you share a link?

Sorry, I pulled it off of Wunderground blog. I'll see if I can find the original source.

[1900hurricane]

Just as soon as I mention the resiliency of the inner eyewall and the unevenly contracting outer eyewall, it looks like the inner eyewall wants to give up the ghost. Matthew is trying to take me to school it seems. Like I mentioned earlier though, core dynamics are very hard to try and nail down.

[Michele B]

Friends, I need some advice here. My mother-in-law (almost 90 years old) lives by herself in a home near (but not on) the St. Johns River in Jacksonville. It's a brick home but built well before the Andrew standards. She has refused our pleas to evacuate but now is at the point where she admits that she doesn't want to "inconvenience" us. We live in Sarasota and it takes between 4 and 5 hours to drive to her home. We can leave tonight and pick her up and be back in Sarasota before dawn tomorrow. Will I be able to get gas on the way back and will the weather deteriorate too badly for us to do this?

If you must go by all means go. I faced the same situation with my father last night. He lives in PSL and was CONVINCED they would be "fine." Then - finally - got concerned when he kept hearing the warnings the mets were giving on their local stations.....so they found an acquaintance who could come over and put up the shutters. They HAD THEM, just couldn't put 'em up (he's 90!).

My advice is, if you can, TAKE YOUR OWN GAS WITH YOU. I doubt you'll find much, certainly not when coming back.

You should only need 3 or 4 gas cans.