ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WPBWeather]

The HRRR model showed a due west movement once it reached Freeport for several hours. Not sure it caught the ERC.

You are right, it did. Something to think about.

[NDG]

The HRRR model showed a due west movement once it reached Freeport for several hours. Not sure it caught the ERC.

It will be interesting to see if the HRRR is right, it has been fairly persistent that it will start tracking on a more WNW heading all the to the coast before going back to a NNW, if it happens I will have a respect for it from now on, otherwise I will my doubts

[Exalt]

What are the chances this strengthens to a cat 5 ?

I don't want to be concrete, because nothing hasn't been with this storm, but likely not, if any last minute strengthening happens it'll likely be back to a high Cat 4.

[Exalt]

The HRRR model showed a due west movement once it reached Freeport for several hours. Not sure it caught the ERC.

It will be interesting to see if the HRRR is right, it has been fairly persistent that it will start tracking on a more WNW heading all the to the coast before going back to a NNW, if it happens I will have a respect for it from now on, otherwise I will my doubts

Funny thing is is that the HRRR seemed to predict a MUCH larger eye closer to Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

now it looks like no ERC.. maybe it stopped it something lol radar looks better than ever

[Steve H.]

Winds are really picking up in Palm Bay right now but no heavy rain yet

[tolakram]

Don't forget we do have a chatroom for talk, check ins, and the like. The mods there are nicer and better looking than we are ... well, I can only speak for myself.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The satellite imagery shows that Mathew has built a really nice solid CDO around and over the eye now and this usually indicates strengthening. That's bad of course. Really bad. But on the good side, I'm seeing more and more trends in the track to be a little more east of the forecast points. You can see it on both satellite and radar. It's enough that I'm becoming pretty sure that the complete eye will never make landfall on the Florida coast - will come pretty close at times but not make landfall where the coast gets a calm wind. That would be much better in terms of wind damage of course. Let's hope.

Agree the shortwave sat-pic indicate a robust system. Land fall well that cant be ruled out @ this point.

[stephen23]

now it looks like no ERC.. maybe it stopped it something lol radar looks better than ever

This is the best radar presentation it has had since Haiti

[Bunkertor]

Don't forget we do have a chatroom for talk, check ins, and the like. The mods there are nicer and better looking than we are ... well, I can only speak for myself.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

LOL. Evening.

[Kazmit]

Talking about Matt's future... what are the chances that he completes a cyclonic loop, and landfalls on Florida again? And then what would happen once it enters the GOM? Interesting to think about.

[tolakram]

Talking about Matt's future... what are the chances that he completes a cyclonic loop, and landfalls on Florida again? And then what would happen once it enters the GOM? Interesting to think about.

For some reason the GFS thinks conditions will be bad in the GOM. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Slightly Off Topic: I'm guessing none of us are sleeping tonight?

I personally will be helping Humanity Road with digital disaster response, listening to 8 scanner feeds, at least 3 video streams, and reading Storm2K while watching Twitter.

Good luck to all of you in Florida tonight.

I'm no where in the area but I got my sleep this afternoon and I'm now up for the long haul. Watching HurricaneTrack.com's live streams, following twitter for both Matthew and Syria, posting updates on my Facebook page and doing audio blogs on my website... God speed to those in it's path... Thoughts and Prayers go out to you guys!

[NDG]

Settlement Point C-Man station now reporting steady hurricane force winds.

onditions at SPGF1 as of
(6:00 pm EDT)
2200 GMT on 10/06/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 65 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 76 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.47 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 64 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 72 kts

[miamijaaz]

Pretty big wobble due west on radar.

[Blown Away]

All of a sudden heavy rain squalls with @50 mph gusts in Hobe Sound... Praying we won't lose power...

[meriland23]

Thank goodness I am home and can see the loop. Matt looks really strong right now, quite a ramp up. I wouldn't be surprised if he is strengthening

[1900hurricane]

now it looks like no ERC.. maybe it stopped it something lol radar looks better than ever

The good thing about microwave passes vs continuous radar coverage is that you can't overanalyze microwave passes like I'm probably doing with every radar frame.

[supercane4867]

Matthew is definitely pulling the last minute intensification phase over gulf stream.

I'm guessing landfall around 120kt near Port Canaveral. Probably just a marginal CAT4 for now according to recon

[PTrackerLA]

21z HRRR has the eyewall touching shore in northern Palm Beach county in 9 hours and then riding up the coast with a true landfall near Cocoa Beach. Let's see how well this model does with Matthew tonight.