ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

The center is still tracking east of the NHC forecast. Just a hair, but it's been consistent all day in tracking just to the right of the line.

[Nate-Gillson]

NOT THE OFFICIAL TRACK, but note - the 00z tropical suite is now all offshore:

Best case scenario.

Although it is very likely that the core of Matthew will stay offshore, the outer eyewall is going to scrape the east coast of Florida.

Also, it is 100% certain that Matthew will be retired after what it did to Haiti, extreme eastern Cuba and Grand Bahama.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

8:53pm EDT splash of sonde:
937mb, 2 knots of surface wind

[FLpanhandle91]

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 935.3 mb (27.62 inHg) from the recon thread

Isn't that a pretty significant drop?

[NDG]

At the heading that is moving over all, I still see it making landfall near Cape Canaveral or just to the north of it if it continues through the night.

[Steve]

Legit post 91. I think that outer eye band is going to be a beast. Depending on how fast and how many of the inner bands someone gets, and since this looks to move north fairly close close up the FL Coast, there's going to be hours and hours and hours of action with those bands. It's already been feeding in for hours in most of E FL, but that's the beginning. The real deal is only a few hours away.

[1900hurricane]

Bryan Norcross is on TV talking about how strange it is that the inner eye wall is holding together as well as it is. Has this happened recently, having an ERC just halt like this and maintain form?

There have actually been a number of Western Pacific typhoons that have maintained concentric eyewalls (with the outer being very large like this) for as long as a couple of days. A couple of recent ones that jump to my mind right away are Bolaven '12 and Usagi '13.

[ronjon]

Watching on MSNBC earlier, the reporter from the Bahamas indicated an 18 foot surge...people forced into attics.

[1900hurricane]

8:53pm EDT splash of sonde:
937mb, 2 knots of surface wind

Talk about dead center.

[Dean4Storms]

back on a solid NW heading towards the coast.

Yea, if you just track the overall center of the bigger outer eyewall it is still heading NW.

The inner eye is bouncing around in there.

[tolakram]

Anyone near West Palm that can report conditions?

[Aric Dunn]

back on a solid NW heading towards the coast.

Aric, where are you expecting landfall?

pretty much central florida..

[ozonepete]

Absolutely, my friend.
But the "it's probably gonna miss" crowd, and I mean those with credentials to say that, needs to give hope to those who are being terrified by the manic media. There are very god signs that this will likely miss most or all of the coast. So people who are hunkered down can stay in place until the all clear but have a little more hope that their home will be there when they go back.

Pete, you're legit and appreciate all your input. And I get the optimism. I guess I just want to know why you are more confident this will miss land. Is it the more northerly track it took earlier today? Its current heading will take it over Cape Canaveral.

Oh I'm just watching the satellite and radar like most everyone else and to my eye it will miss the coast by at least 30 miles. I especially like watching the wider view water vapor loops which shows the main steering flow pretty well and is now telling me that the ridge is not pushing farther enough west anymore to prevent Matthew from turning north. So the general track I can discern from the radar/sat together with the water vapor loop steering indications tells me this can't get any much closer to the coast than it is now. Btw I also look at things such as the 500mb height changes that NDG recently posted but I don't want to confuse most of the crowd here and I did want to show you all a way to figure out the short range motion a little bit on your own as well. But that's my opinion. Time will tell.

[MaineWeatherNut]

My 9pm update on Hurricane Matthew...

http://theweatherwatch.org/thursday-oct ... pm-update/

[ozonepete]

back on a solid NW heading towards the coast.

Aric, where are you expecting landfall?

pretty much central florida..

You're not picking Satellite Beach, lol?

[ronjon]

Miami radar down.

[tolakram]

[meriland23]

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 935.3 mb (27.62 inHg) from the recon thread

Isn't that a pretty significant drop?

In hurricane terms, yes. 4 MB drop within a hour is rather significant.

[adam0983]

Light rain here in Boca with 40 mph winds at best.

[GTStorm]

back on a solid NW heading towards the coast.

Aric, where are you expecting landfall?

pretty much central florida..

even with the latest shift in model guidance?